FTSE 100 calls Mayday but manages to end the day safely in positive territory

By Jamie Ashcroft / May 01, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 up 11 points

  • April UK PMI marks 17 month low, pound weakens

  • FTSE dollar earners rise

  • BP results see shares rise

  • Pipehawk is the day's best performer after landing four contracts

The FTSE 100 just about clung on to its gains at the death, helped by a mildly positive reaction to results from BP PLC (LON:BP.).

The FTSE 100 closed at 7,520, up 11 points.

BP added 1.8% after posting its best operating profit since 2014.

Russ Mould, the investment director at AJ Bell, noted the oil giant's shares were trading at a five-year high, with investors tempted by the stock's dividend yield - even though "there are still a few issues regarding cash flow, which still does not technically cover the quarterly shareholders payout".

"Based on consensus' analysts forecasts for an unchanged full-year 2018 dividend of $0.40 per share (around 29p a share at current exchange rates) BP is the third biggest dividend payer overall within the FTSE 100 (at 7% of the index's forecast total payout)," Mould observed.

"The shares offer a yield of 5.3%, enough to place it on the fringes of the list of 20 highest-yielding stocks in the FTSE 100," he added.

In the market overall, Pipehawk PLC (LONLPIP) was the top performer, doubling after a trading update that included the closure of four contract wins that were in the pipeline - if you'll forgive the pun.

3:35pm: FTSE 100 set to finish first May session in positive territory

It is the first day of May and, although only a few hours have passed, it appears the blue chip investors have yet to go away.

Heading towards Tuesday's close, the FTSE 100 was up 14 points or 0.19% changing hands at 7,523.

April saw a good rally for equities, market watchers will be keen to see whether sentiment can hold up in the coming weeks.

One analyst believes there's potential for the market to beat the dogged adage.

"April is statistically the second-best month of the year for UK equity market performance, although these monthly returns will be hard to beat in 2018," said Lee Wild, Interactive Investor head of strategy.

Wild added: "An inverse relationship with the pound has been crucial to the FTSE 100's rebound because its constituents make so much money in the US, which inflates profits when converted back into sterling.

"There seems little chance of a recovery in the pound near term, given poor GDP data, falling inflation, and now a period of political instability caused by the resignation of home secretary Amber Rudd.

"An increase in UK interest rates this month now seems highly unlikely, putting further pressure on sterling, which could at least underpin the FTSE 100 now less than 300 points from an all-time high."

2:40pm: FTSE 100 stays positive despite downbeat start on Wall Street

The FTSE 100 maintained its positivity through Tuesday afternoon as attentions began turning towards New York.

Wall Street opened the new session trading on the back foot, weighed by dollar strength and hesitation ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting.

The Dow Jones began almost 160 points into the red, down 0.65% at 24,005 while the S&P 500 was off 0.82% at 2,648 and the Nasdaq was 0.36% lower at 7,040.

Conversely, in London the multinational-heavy FTSE 100 index was helped because of the stronger greenback and a couple of sterling hiccups.

Changing hands at 7,535 the UK benchmark was up 18 points or 0.24%.

At the same time, the more domestically aligned FTSE 250 was also higher - up 83 points or 0.41% at 20,368.

1:30pm: FTSE 100 dollar earners boosted by pound weakness

Support from a softer pound saw the FTSE 100 return to Monday's highs, which were seen at 7,545.

Having seen marks a few points higher in recent hours, the blue chip benchmark was up 33 points or 0.44% changing hands at 7,542.

"Other than positive results from oil major BP, the principal driver is yet more GBP weakness (versus USD more than EUR) flattering its international members," said Mike van Dulken, Accendo Markets head of research.

"This comes from yet another spanner in the Brexit vote in the House of Lords, more disappointing UK macro data (PMI Manufacturing, Borrowing, Mortgage Approvals).

The analyst added: "The USD itself remains strong too, ahead of what is likely to be another hawkish monetary policy update from the Fed tomorrow night, hampering USD sensitive commodity prices and thus Miners."

The House of Lords last night voted through amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill which are designed to potentially allow parliament power to block a 'no deal' Brexit or force the UK Prime Minister back into negotiations.

These amendments were passed 335 votes to 244.

Theresa May on Tuesday threatened a 'robust response' and claimed the Lord approved amendments would impede Britain's bargaining in Brussels.

12:01pm FTSE 100 continues higher as pound weakness helps blue-chip dollar earners

The FTSE 100 had continued higher by midday with the benchmarks dollar-earning multinationals supported as the pound weakened further.

Changing hands at 7,542, extending earlier gains to trade up 33 points or 0.45%.

11:50am: Pound softens on April slump for UK manufacturing

The pound has taken a fresh hit, with the latest UK manufacturing statistics disappointing market watchers.

Sterling was down 0.52% at US$1.3692 against the dollar.

Manufacturing, measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), came in at 53.9 for the month of April which marked a seventeen month low.

Expert commentators believe this latest disappointment will heighten worries over the British economy.

Howard Archer, economic advisor at EY, in a note, highlighted that the PMI number has trended down since November.

"The Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing survey points to the manufacturing sector losing significant momentum in April," Archer said.

"This followed a clear slowdown in the first quarter, which appears to have been little to do with the bad weather.

"Unlike the construction and services sectors, there had been little evidence in March surveys or in ONS comments that manufacturing activity had been hit significantly by the severe weather."

10:45am: FTSE 100 in positive territory as BP sees its best share price for years

Oil and oil companies are very much in focus on Tuesday, as the BP share price saw its highest level for a number of years.

By around 10:30am, BP had climbed 4p or 0.74% with shares changing hands at 542p.

The FTSE 100 was up 22 points or 0.3% changing hands at 7,533.

BP's better-than-expected first quarter results revealed a 6% rise in production, some US$5.4bn of operating cash flow and, significantly, profit rose 71% to US$2.6bn.

Helal Miah, analyst at online broker Share Centre, in a note highlighted that the big oil firms are now more confident about future and major project investments are starting to feature once again.

"Production figures from the upstream, downstream and even Rosneft which prior to this quarter was a relative poor performer,  were all ahead of expectations and has sent BP's share price this morning higher by a couple of percentage points," the analyst added.

"More importantly, the share price has now easily surpassed the highs of 2014 before the time when oil started its slide from $100 a barrel."

Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Nicholas Hyett, meanwhile, added: "Headline profits are looking strong, but, just as importantly, those profits are being converted to cash.

"BP is seeing more demand on that cash than most.

"It's still shelling out billions of dollars in compensation for the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the dividend remains substantial and is now accompanied by a share buyback programme, while an ever growing debt pile will need repaying at some point."

10:00am: FTSE 100 keeps up slow and steady start

The FTSE 100 maintained its slow and steady start, up 23 points or 0.31% changing hands at 7,533.

At the same time markets are closed in continental Europe.

With few macro fireworks around, much of the attentions are on the morning's corporate reports - namely results from BP and Just Eat.

BP shares were on the front foot, up 1.13%, after its first quarter came in ahead of expectations.

Takeaway food business Just Eat Plc (LON:JE. gained 3.1% said revenue in the three months to March 31 rose to ?177.4mln from ?118.9mln a year ago as total orders increased 32% to 51.6mln.

UK utility National Grid Plc (LON:NG. added just over 1% as it advances a potential ?1.2bn stake sale, for the UK gas network, to Cadent Gas.

Analysts and chartists, meanwhile, are keeping their eyes peeled on certain 'key' levels.

"The FTSE 100 trades slightly higher on Tuesday, continuing its impressive recovery from the recent lows seen in late March," said Russ Mould, investment director at broker AJ Bell.

"Trading above the 7,500 mark, the index is back within striking distance of the record highs attained in January."

8:40am: FTSE 100 kicks off on the front foot; Just Eat the star performer 

The FTSE 100 opened 20 points higher at 7,529.76, shrugging off the negative sentiment permeating from Wall Street where spirits couldn't be lifted by a slew of deals on 'merger Monday'.

"The underperformance in the US appears to have the hallmarks of an investor base starting to worry about the potential for a slowdown in the pace of earnings growth, at a time when some of the economic data outside of the US has started to show signs of turning lower," said Michael Hewson of CMC Markets.

Back here in the UK, the stand-out performer was Just Eat (LON:JE.) with the takeaway specialist up 4.4% in the wake of its latest trading update.

The City broker Liberum said the figures showed the company was "cementing its competitive advantage" over smaller wannabes as it reiterated its 'buy' recommendation.

It cut back its price target for the stock to 850p from 935p, citing the raft of investment going into the business.

Shares in BP held firm after the release of first-quarter numbers, while Sainsbury nudged 1.3% higher, building on the strong advance on Monday following confirmation of its tie-up with Asda.

Proactive news headlines:

OptiBiotix Health plc (LON:OPTI) saw its shares jump on Tuesday after the life science firm noted media interest generated by a potential commercial partner, Seed Health. In a statement, the AIM-listed firm - which is developing compounds to tackle obesity, high cholesterol, diabetes and skin care - pointed out that Seed purchased its LP-LD product for use in a multi-strain product intended for launch in the US in May 2018.

Kromek Group PLC (LON:KMK) said it expects to report revenue growth in its full-year results as new and previous contracts boosted earnings. In a trading update ahead of its results, the AIM-listed provider of radiation detection equipment said it expected its underlying earnings (EBITDA) to break even, in line with market expectations, as it saw a growth in sales through executing both previously-signed agreements as well as new high-value contract wins during the year.

Union Jack Oil PLC (LON:UJO) financial results for 2017 reflect a year of "considerable progress", that's according to executive chairman David Bramhill. The onshore UK oiler has continued to grow its portfolio, both during and after the reporting period, and, Bramhill described himself as "enthusiastic" about the future.

WideCells Group PLC (LON:WDC) said publication of its annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2017 has been delayed pending completion of the audit process and will be later than the required publication date of Monday 30 April 2018. In a statement, the healthcare services company focused on providing stem cell services noted that it has been in discussion with its financial advisers with a view to a fundraising, in the absence of which the group is at risk of not being able to continue trading as a going concern.

SkinBioTherapeutics PLC said it has finalised plans for human study of cosmetic application of its SkinBiotix treatment while announcing progress with the manufacturing scale-up of the product. The former first: the assessment of 120 female volunteers with dry skin will take place in the third quarter with testing being carried out by clinical research firm Alba Science. This study is double the original size.

E-therapeutics PLC (LON:ETX) and C4X Discovery Holdings plc (LON:C4X) are to pool their knowledge to try to find a treatment for Parkinson's Disease.

ATTRAQT Group plc (LON:ATQT) has announced the appointment of Luke McKeever as its chief executive officer, with interim executive chairman Nick Habgood to revert back to his former non-executive role. The AIM-listed online merchandising, onsite search and eCommerce personalisation provider said McKeever will join the Group on 21 May 2018 and will take over the reins from Hapgood following a short handover period.

Symphony Environmental Technologies plc (LON:SYM) said it has signed a collaboration and strategic investment agreement with French company Eranova SAS. The AIM-listed biodegradable plastics maker said Eranova has developed a technology which extracts starch from algae for use with other materials. The starch can be combined with other polymers to produce compostable and biodegradable resin.

Fertility aid manufacturer Concepta PLC (LON:CPT) believes it has sorted the supply side problems in China that hit its numbers in 2017.

 Harry Potter publisher Bloomsbury Publishing PLC (LON:BMY) has strengthened its presence in the academic book market with the acquisition of IBT Tauris.

Motif Bio Plc (LON:MTFB, NASDAQ:MTFB) said the results of its REVIVE-2 phase III clinical trial of its lead drug iclaprim have been published in the peer-reviewed journal Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy. The next-generation antibiotic was used to treat acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) and was found to be as effective (the term is non-inferior) to the current standard of care, a drug called vancomycin.

HemoGenyx Pharmaceuticals PLC (LON:HEMO) chief executive Dr Vladislav Sandler described 2017 as a "significant year" after the company listed on the market and inked a collaboration with Oxford University. But perhaps the most exciting development occurred after the period-end as the company was able to show that its CDX antibodies can attack and eliminate acute myelogenous leukaemia.

Nasstar Plc (LON:NASA) saw narrowed losses and improved margins in its full-year results as its "Nasstar 10-19" strategy began to bear fruit. The AIM-listed IT services provider reported a reduced loss before tax of ?1.2mln from ?1.8mln the year before on revenues of ?24.5mln, up from ?18.7mln previously.

Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd (LON:CGH) has outlined in more detail the terms of its potential acquisition of the Kumtor mine in Kyrgyzstan. Chaarat will offer US$400mln in cash, to be funded by debt and equity as well as organising for the return of US$400mln in shares to the current owner of Kumtor, Centerra Gold (TSE:CG). That US$800mln valuation represents a 30% premium on the value placed by Centerra on Kumtor, according to Chaarat's reading of Centerra's financial statements. Separately, Chaarat has also started drilling at its Tulkubash project, and has already intersected mineralisation.

The recent A$5.7mln fundraising undertaken by Metminco Ltd (LON:MNC) will go in pary towards exploration on the Tesorito prospect on the Quicnhia project in Colombia. The company has also initiated discussions with Anglogold Ashanti in relation to a farm-in or joint venture deal at Chuscal, also part of the Quincha project.  Meanwhile, Metminco has also made advances in the permitting process for the Miraflores gold project. A plan of work was submitted in January.

Rambler Metals and Mining PLC (CVE:RAB) (LON:RMM) generated revenues of US$28.3mln in the year to December 2017, up from the US$28mln booked in the corresponding period a year ago. Fourth quarter sales rose to US$8.4mln, up from US$7.3mln in the third quarter and US$5.4mln in the corresponding quarter in 2016. Big Pic in April.

W Resources PLC (LON:WRES) told investors that it has kicked off a new drill programme at the S??o Martinho gold project in Portugal. The company will now carry out five weeks of reverse circulation drilling, comprising fifteen holes or 2,000 metres.

Cabot Energy PLC (LON:CAB) has told investors that non-executive chairman John Murphy intends to step down, once a successor has been found. Murphy has held the position since September 2013.

6.45am: Stocks expected to nudge higher 

The Footsie is expected to edge higher on Tuesday following mixed performances overnight from US and Asian markets with all eyes on tomorrow's US rate decision and another batch of corporate earnings, notably from oil giant BP PLC (LON:BP.).

Spread betting firm IG expects the FTSE 100 index to open around 5 points higher at 7,514, having added 7 points on Monday to end at 7,509 well below earlier peaks after a boost from merger moves.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 148 points to close at 24,163 as rising bond yields and firmer commodity prices raised future cost concerns despite more solid corporate earnings reports.

However, US stock futures pared their losses today with Asian markets steadier after the US government extended the deadline for its tariffs on steel and aluminium to come into effect easing global trade war worries.

On currency markets, the pound was a touch lower versus both the dollar and the euro awaiting the first of the new month's batch of UK purchasing managers index.

The main economic focus, however, will be on the latest Federal Reserve meeting which kicks off today, with a monetary policy decision due on Wednesday.

In a preview of the meeting, economists at Societe Generale said: "We expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the May 2 FOMC meeting, and with no new projections or a press conference, the only changes will be to the FOMC statement."

They added: "The biggest change could be to the assessment of current inflation, especially given our expectation that both the headline and core PCE deflators will likely be at target by the time of the meeting."

The SocGen economists concluded: "Given the solid underlying pace of job growth, we expect the Fed to retain the language on the labor market."

Crude price boost for BP

On the corporate front, first-quarter numbers from BP will likely show good growth in earnings thanks to a boost to crude prices.

However, as rival Royal Dutch Shell showed in its first quarter results last week, crude strength doesn't translate directly to free cash flow.

Morgan Stanley analysts expect BP's first quarter production to be broadly flat on a quarter on quarter basis as higher contribution from key 2017 start-ups would likely be offset by the expiration of Abu Dhabi offshore assets.

"Still we expect exploration and production earnings (EBIT) to increase primarily due to higher Brent prices, they added,

Tasty update seen from Just Eat

Just Eat PLC (LON:JE.) will also issue a first-quarter trading update on Tuesday which could make for tasty reading, although only revenues will be reported, and no update is expected on the group's investment plans.

Deutsche Bank forecasts the FTSE 100-listed firm reporting revenues of ?156m of revenues, up 31% year-on-year.

The bank's analysts estimate Just Eat to report 48mln of orders in Q1, up 23% year-on-year driven by Skip the Dishes and Developing markets.

In the UK, the analysts forecast 18% order growth from the firm as Q1 2017 is a relatively easy comparative. In Australia, however, they expect to see no order growth on the back of platform challenges, competition and tough comparatives.

Significant events expected on Tuesday May 1:

Two-day FOMC meeting begins

Interims: BP PLC (Q1) (LON:BP), Just Eat PLC (Q1) (LON:JE.), Connect Group PLC (LON:CNCT)

Finals: Nasstar Plc (LON:NASA), Pelatro PLC (LON:PTRO)

Trading updates: DS Smith PLC (LON:SMDS), Jardine Lloyds Thompson Group PLC (LON:JLT), Plus 500 Ltd (LON:PLUS), Virgin Money Holdings (UK) PLC (LON:VM.)

Economic data: UK manufacturing PMI; US ISM manufacturing index; US manufacturing PMI; US construction spending

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.3753, down 0.2%
  • Gold: US$1,312.70 an ounce, down 0.6%
  • Brent crude: US$68.74 barrel, up 0.3%

City Headlines:

  • Japanese takeover bid is at fair price, says Shire founder - The Times
  • Lenders pour scorn on Shell over sale of Flow Energy - The Times
  • Boeing to buy aerospace parts maker KLX for about US$3.2bn in cash - Reuters
  • Autonomy finance chief faces jail over 'fraud' - The Times
  • WhatsApp's Founder Koum to leave amid reports of clashes with Facebook - Daily Telegraph
  • Marathon Petroleum to buy Andeavor in US$36bn U.S. energy deal - Financial Times
  • Disney shares powered by Avengers' US$641mln box office haul - Financial Times
  • Panasonic to pay US$280mln to settle U.S. bribery allegations - Financial Times
  • Deutsche Bank investors urged to line up next Chairman: - Financial Times
  • Carlsberg first-quarter sales weighed by Russian market; keeps 2018 outlook - Reuters
  • Lebara fails to meet deadline for audited results - Financial Times
  • More jobs go in Carillion collapse, taking the total so far to 2,257 - Daily Mail
  • Fashion failure risks 350 jobs as Bench becomes the latest High Street retailer to collapse - Daily Mail
  • Conviviality turned down 11th-hour rescue - Daily Telegraph
  • Sunseeker Chief John Braithwaite bows out after five decades at the British luxury yacht firm - Daily Mail
  • Holland & Barrett avoids high street blues as demand for health food booms - Daily Telegraph
  • Car insurance premiums fall for first time in two years - The Times
  • Trump delays metal tariffs on Canada, EU, Mexico, exempts some others - Reuters

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