FTSE 100 caps comeback week with 60 point rise; FCA gives MPs full report into RBS GRG unit

By Renae Dyer / February 16, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 rises 59 points

  • Retail sales rise less than expected 

  • Segro shares jump after well-received results 

Property company Segro PLC (LON:SGRO) led the Footsie higher on Friday after a strong set of results.

The FTSE 100 closed at 7,295, up 60 points on the day and more than 200 points on the week.

SEGRO topped the leader-board with a 6.5% rise to 591.2p after reporting a 25.7% increase in adjusted profit before tax for 2017.

Net asset value per share rose 16.3% to 566p from 478p at the end of 2016.

"A 6.1% increase to the final dividend will please income investors, but after a near doubling in share price from the Brexit lows (+84%) it is very much necessary to keep pace, with its circa 3% yield towards the lower end of a FTSE property sector paying anywhere from 1.8% for the more London-centric SHB, GPOR and DLN to a more competitive 4-7% at bigger retail-focused rivals INTU, HMSO, BLND, LAND,2 commented Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets.

3.50pm: RBS expected to dish out 10th consecutive loss

The news about Royal Bank of Scotland's GRG unit comes ahead of its full year results next Friday.

RBS has guided towards a return to profitability for fiscal year 2018 and has posted ?1.3bn of profits in the first nine months of 2017.  

But analysts estimate ?2.2bn of conduct charges in the fourth quarter, which is expected to push the state-owned lender into a full year loss of ?592mln, its tenth consecutive year in the red.

Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY) reports its full year results on Wednesday but the focus will be on the new strategy it is also set to unveil to investors.

The bank will book at least ?1bn of charges related to its payment production insurance mis-selling scandal but cost savings and an improved net interest margin should mean profit growth is a little more impressive.

Fellow UK lenders Barclays PLC (LON:BARC) and HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA) post their earnings on Thursday and Tuesday respectively.

For a full preview on what to expect in next week's banks' results READ: Banks to feature strongly in deluge of blue chip earnings, including Lloyds, RBS, Barclays

3.30pm: FCA hands over report into RBS GRG to MPs

The financial watchdog has provided MPs with its full report into the mistreatment of small businesses by Royal Bank of Scotland's global restructuring group (GRG).

The Financial Conduct Authority had until today to either publish the full report of hand it over to the Treasury Select Committee after chair Nicky Morgan warned the regulator would be held in contempt of parliament if it failed to do so.

The FCA said it decided to give the report to MPs because it would be breaking the law by publishing it on its own.

It had already published a summary of the report, which accuses GRG of profiting from the struggles of small businesses, following a leak. But it has faced calls from politicians and the affected businesses to publish the report in full.

In handing over the report, FCA boss Andrew Bailey told Morgan in a letter that the leak was "regrettable".

"I do want to make clear that it is not our intention to frustrate or impede the work of the committee, quite the reverse in fact," wrote Bailey. "With that in mind we are providing the report as required."

3.00pm: US consumer confidence rises in February 

US consumer confidence rose more than expected in February as Americans remained optimistic about jobs and economic growth.

The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index increased to 99.9 from 95.7 the previous month, above expectations of 95.5.

US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Index Feb P: 99.9 (est 95.5; prev 95.7)
-Current Conditions Feb P: 115.1 (est 111.1; prev 110.5)
-Expectations Feb P: 90.2 (est 87.2; prev 86.3)

- LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) 16 February 2018

It marked the second-highest level in 14 years.

The index measures consumers' attitudes on future economic prospects, in areas such as inflation, personal finances, unemployment, interest rates and government policies. 

2.30pm: US stocks open little changed

US stocks have opened little changed but remain on track for the best performing week in more than a year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat at 25,194 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also little changed at 2,733 and 7,623 respectively. 

The US market has seen five consecutive sessions of gains and were expected to post a sixth rally. 

1.40pm: US housing starts and import price index data beats forecasts

The latest raft of US economic data has started to roll in.

The Commerce Department's report on housing starts showed construction on new homes jumped 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.33 million.

Economists were expecting a 3.5% rise after a 6.9% fall in December.

Building permits gained 7.4% to a rate of 1.39 million units in January, the highest level since June 2007.

Separate government data showed the import price index rose 1% in January, adding to a picture of high inflation in the US. It compares to expectations for a 0.6% rise and follows a 0.1% gain in December.

The increase was driven by oil but there were also price rises for German cars, French cheese and Italian wine.

Excluding fuel, import prices rose 0.4%.

Earlier this week, official data showed consumer price inflation held at 2.1% in January, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. 

1.00pm: Shares in Coca-Cola fizz up

Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) shares are higher in ahead of the opening bell in the US after reporting fourth quarter results that beat expectations.

Net operating revenue dropped to US$7.51bn from US$9.41bn a year ago, mainly due to the refinancing of its bottling operations, but was ahead of analysts' forecasts of US$7.36bn.

The softdrinks company reported a net loss of US$2.75bn, or 65 cents per share, mainly due to a US$3.6bn charge related to the new US tax laws.

Adjusted earnings came to 39 cents per share, topping estimates of 38 cents.

Sports drinks and water were the company's top performers as consumers become more health conscious. 

The dividend has been lifted by 5.4% to US$1.56 a share.

12.40pm: US stock futures hint at six straight session of gains

US stock futures are pointing to another positive open with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to hold above the 25,000-mark.

Equities have enjoyed five consecutive sessions for gains despite some volatility.

Futures for the Dow on Friday were up 16 points to 25,249, while S&P 500 futures added 5.3 points to 2,740 and the Nasdaq rose 19 points to 6,835.

Investors are looking ahead to economic data on import and export prices, housing starts and the University of Michigan's sentiment index.

Company-wise, Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) shares fell in pre-market trade as it reported a 2% drop in organic sales in the second quarter.

Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) shares jumped after the US tractor maker said net sales and revenues rose 23% to US$6.91bn in the quarter to January 28.

12.00pm: London stocks gain in lunchtime trade

The FTSE 100 increased 38 points to 7,272 at the midday mark as the pound fell against the dollar after disappointing UK retail sales data.

Sterling is down 0.19% versus the dollar at US$1.4072, reversing gains in the previous session.

Afternoon Market Comment: Cable pulls back from $1.41 following disappointing UK retail sales... https://t.co/tx8URSSctD

- Connor Campbell (@ConnorSpreadex) 16 February 2018

Retail sales rose by just 0.1% in January from the previous month, below expectations for a 0.6% rise and following a 1.4% drop in December, as higher inflation put pressure on disposable incomes.

On the company front, property developer Segro PLC (LON:SGRO) was the biggest riser on the  FTSE 100 after reporting a 25% increase in full year earnings on the back of a record level of development completions.

FTSE 250-listed Balfour Beatty (LON:BBY) rallied after saying a joint venture has won a US$1.95bln contract for the building, financing and managing of an airport transit system at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX).

Restaurant Group Plc (LON:RTN) received a boost after HSBC upgraded its rating to 'hold' from 'reduce'.

Shares in Old Mutual PLC (LON:OML) reversed the previous day's gains when it rose to the top of the FTSE 100.

Temporary power supplier Aggreko shares fell on a downgrade from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 

11.20am: Young adults shut out of property market, IFS reveals

Consumers are being squeezed by high inflation in the retail sector but young adults trying to buy a home are even more so under pressure, according to figures released by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The IFS has revealed the chances of a young adult on a middle income owning a home have more than halved in the past two decades.

Nearly 40% of young adults now face house prices more than ten times their annual income - compared to less than 10% twenty years ago https://t.co/Bs1OU5DdWG 5/5 pic.twitter.com/iKdzGSoZxc

- IFS (@TheIFS) 16 February 2018

Home ownership for 25- to 34-year-olds earning between ?22,200 and ?30,600 per year has fallen from 65% two decades ago to 27%.

Average house prices have grown approximately seven times faster than the average income for young adults, with the former growing 152% and the latter growing 22% since 1995 when accounting for inflation.

11.00am: EY expects economy to slow in first quarter 

EY Item Club expects UK economic growth to slow in the first quarter following disappointing retail sales and a weaker set of purchasing managers' surveys for services, manufacturing and construction.

It expects GDP to rise 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, down from 0.5% in the final three months of 2017.

But EY thinks the squeeze on consumers should steadily ease as the year progresses due to inflation falling back and pay slowly trending up.

"We believe inflation will fall back from 3.0% in January to close to 2% by the end of 2018 (largely due to the impact of sterling's past sharp fall diminishing)," said Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to EY.

"Meanwhile, we expect earnings growth to trend up gradually as a consequence of recruitment difficulties in some sectors and higher inflation fuelling some increased pay awards."

Following softer set of January purchasing managers' surveys for #services, #manufacturing & #construction, muted #retail #sales fuels suspicion #UK #economy may have slowed at start of 2018. We currently see Q1 #GDP #growth at 0.4% q/q in Q1 after 0.55 q/q expansion in Q4 2017 https://t.co/CORk9EaaAr

- Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) 16 February 2018

However, Archer reckons it is "highly likely" that real earnings growth remained negative in January with consumer price inflation of 3.0% "almost certainly" above annual earnings growth for the month.

He expects the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy twice this year with 25 basis point increases in May and November.

10.20am: Consumer confidence still down in the doldrums 

The retail sales data suggests shoppers were reluctant to participate in January sales as consumer confidence remains depressed and disposable incomes look set to remain under pressure, according to ING Research.

"True, wage growth has been performing better recently, giving the Bank of England increased confidence that the tight labour market is prompting firms to offer more generous pay packets," said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING.

"That said, it's still early days, and we think there remains a risk that some firms take a more cautious stance, amidst slower economic momentum and elevated uncertainty.

"At the same time, food and fuel costs are continuing to rise, even though in general consumer prices have largely adjusted to the post-Brexit weakening in the pound."

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said weak consumer spending remains a significant headwind for the UK economy.  

"We've been waiting for the pay squeeze to filter through to the high street, but for much of last year retail sales held up better than many expected," he said.

"The big question now is whether this is the start of a worrying trend for the economy, or whether falling inflation and rising wages will come to the rescue."

He noted that monthly data is volatile and therefore harder to draw conclusions from two months of disappointing numbers but thinks it looks almost certain the longer-term trend is one of slowing growth in the retail sector.

10.05am: Consumers won't drive the economy forward this year, says economist

The failure of retail sales to recover meaningfully after December's month-on-month decline highlights that consumers can't be counted on to drive the economy forwards this year, said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"Volumes were 0.5% below their fourth quarter average in January, setting up overall consumption to provide little support to GDP growth in the first quarter," he said.

Tombs reckons food sales should recover soon now that supermarkets have largely finished pushing through price rises in response to sterling's depreciation.

"But consumers will come under more pressure to scrimp as the fiscal consolidation intensifies in April and mortgage rates continue to creep up," he added.

"Slower job creation, meanwhile, likely will be the flip-side of stronger growth in wages this year, implying that growth in overall nominal incomes won't accelerate this year."

9.55am: Pound weakens after retail sales miss

In reaction to the weaker-than-expected UK retail sales data, the pound is now down 0.01% versus the dollar at US$1.4098 after rising as high as US$1.4144 earlier.

Against the euro, sterling is down 0.19% to ?,?1.1253.

"UK shoppers continued the theme of keeping their money in their pockets post-Christmas, and weaker than expected data could now have an adverse effect on the pound, which has been heading for its best weekly performance since September," said Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com

9.45am: Falling food sales offsets growth in sports equipment, games and toys

The ONS said the retail sales data showed a continued slowdown in the sector as higher inflation puts a squeeze on consumers.

Retail sales slowdown continues on the year as food store purchases decline https://t.co/edGi27eAk2 pic.twitter.com/22lfyKZADY

- ONS (@ONS) 16 February 2018

The main contribution to year-on-year growth came from non-food stores, with sports equipment, games and toys increasing sales in the quantity bought in this sector by 10.9%.

"Growth in the quantity of sporting equipment, games and toys being bought was offset by falling food sales when compared with the same month a year earlier," the ONS said.

"Sporting equipment sales have grown more than usual in January 2018, following an increased uptake for gym wear."

9.30am: UK retail sales data misses expectations 

UK retail sales rose less than expected in January, the Office for National Statistics has revealed.

Sales, excluding auto fuel, rose 1.5% from a year ago, missing expectations for a 2.4% rise and following a 1.3% increase in December.

On the month, retail sales, excluding fuel, climbed 0.1% against forecasts for a 0.6% gain and after a 1.5% dip in December.

#Consumers remain cautious in spending at start of 2018 as #UK #retail #sales volumes only edge up 0.1% m/m in January after drop of 1.4% m/m in December. Only up 0.1% in 3 months to January compared to 3 months to October

- Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) 16 February 2018

Including auto fuel, retail sales in January increased 0.1% on the month, after a 1.4% drop, and grew 1.6% on the year, after a 1.5% decline. Analysts were expecting a 06% monthly rise and a 2.5% yearly increase. 

8.45am: FTSE 100 recovers ahead of retail sales data

The FTSE 100 continued in recovery mode, taking its cue from Wall Street and Asian markets overnight to rise 39 points to 7,273.92.

On the foreign exchange markets the pound nudged back over US$1.40 ahead of the retail sales data in less than an hour.

Economists are looking for growth of 0.6% in January following December's 1.5% slump.

"The Bank of England will struggle to hike interest rates without an improvement in consumer spending, but that will come as an anticipated decline in the cost of living feeds through to more significant growth in real wages," said Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at Interactive Investors.

The Footsie's top riser was Segro (LON:SGRO) after prelims from the property giant pleased investors and analysts, leading to a 2.3% rise in the share price.

There was a dearth of fallers on the blue-chip index although the casualties were easier to spot a division down on the FTSE 250.

Off 4% was Agrekko (LON:AGK), hit by the stronger pound/weaker dollar with the temporary generator specialist gleaning a large slug of its revenues Stateside.

Among the tiddlers W Resources (LON:WRES) was an early riser (up 13%) after it concluded a financing deal with BlackRock that will fund its Spanish tungsten mine to production.

Proactive news headlines:

W Resources PLC (LON:WRES) told investors it has secured a US$35mln loan and in doing so it ensures that the La Parrilla mine development is fully funded. BlackRock Financial Management is providing the loan, which will have a five-year schedule term (with the option for early repayment) and it has an average interest rate of 12.6%.

Sunrise Resources Plc (LON:SRES) has announced positive results from the phase 2 of drilling at the CS pozzolan-perlite project in Nevada. The company completed 25 reverse circulation percussion drill holes at 838m to better define the zones of commercial interest and assist in the preparation of mine plans for permitting.

Learning Technologies Group PLC (LON:LTG), the leading integrated e-learning services and technologies provider, announced that it has appointed Goldman Sachs International as joint corporate broker alongside Numis Securities.

Hummingbird Resources PLC (LON:HUM) said on Friday its Yanfolila gold mine in Mali has steadily been ramping up towards full production since first gold was poured in December. The plant has achieved around 96% gold recoveries consistently since the start of operations, which is higher than design specification.

Victoria Oil & Gas plc (LON:VOG) told investors that fourth quarter gas sales were up 18.56% from the preceding three months. Gross sales amounted to 726mln cubic feet in the fourth quarter, which also represents an 11% increase in the year-on-year comparative. Daily gas production averaged 7.94mln cubic feet per day, up from 6.96mln cubic feet in the third quarter and 7.64mln in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Galantas Gold Corp (LON:GAL) said the Court of Appeal at the Royal Courts of Justice in Belfast, Northern Ireland has completed its hearing on an appeal by a third party regarding the granting of planning permission to the firm's gold mine in Omagh.

Scotgold Resources Limited (LON:SGZ) has received a boost to its plans to open an underground gold mine at Cononish. The Director of Rural Planning and Development at the Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park Authority has issued a report recommending approval of the company's application, subject to an S75 planning agreement.

Accesso Technology Group PLC (LON:ACSO) has appointed Royce Paul Noland Jr. as the ticket and queue management company's new chief executive officer and said he will join the board on 9 April 2018. The AIM-listed firm noted that Noland was president and CEO of the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions and has acted in a number of senior executive roles with Walt Disney Parks and Resorts and Marriot International.

Faron Pharmaceuticals Oy (LON:FARN) has topped up its balance sheet with a ?15mln funding to accelerate the development of its two lead products. A placing and subscription at 805p, the closing price yesterday, will bring in a net ?14.1mln to add to an existing cash balance of ?,?9.3mln.

Advanced Oncotherapy PLC (LON:AVO), the developer of next-generation proton therapy systems for cancer treatment said it has been informed by Yantai Cipu that the Chinese authorities have authorised the transfer of the ?13.5mln payable under the subscription for 45mln new ordinary shares to be issued by the company to Yantai Cipu at a price of 30p per share. The firm added that Yantai Cipu has also informed the company that they are in advanced negotiation with a major medical equipment and pharmaceutical distribution company in China for a collaboration to accelerate and strengthen their market access in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and South Korea.

Concepta PLC (LON:CPT) the UK healthcare company and developer of a proprietary product targeted at the mobile health market with a primary focus on women's fertility, announced the appointment of David Darrock, its chief operating officer, as a director of Concepta Diagnostics Ltd. Alongside Darrock's appointment, and to strengthen the China team, the group added, Michelle Yao has been appointed as Concepta's China General Manager, and will be reporting to Zhang Zi Gang, the UK-based Head of China.

Goldplat plc (LON:GDP), the AIM listed gold producer with international recovery operations located in South Africa and Ghana and a mine in Kenya, announced the appointment of WH Ireland as it sole broker with immediate effect.

6.45am: FTSE 100 set for strong start

The FTSE 100 is expected to advance once more in early trading on Friday following further overnight gains by US and Asian markets, as investors await more UK data for direction, with retail sales due at 9.30am.

Spread betting firm CMC Markets expects the UK blue chip index to open around 29 points higher at 7,263, having gained about 20 points on Thursday.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones jumped 306 points higher to close at 25,200, with both the other main US indexes also finding strong gains as recent worries over inflation and higher interest rates were pushed aside for now.

Asian markets were slightly more subdued today given that many remained closed for the Chinese lunar new year celebrations, but Japan's Nikkei 225 still added 1.1%.

On currency markets, the pound was fairly steady versus both the dollar and the euro, consolidating recent gains as traders awaited the latest UK retail sales data for clues to the health of the high street at the end of a week that saw UK inflation remain stubbornly higher.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK commented that UK retail sales "had a pretty rotten month in December, with a slump of 1.5%, though that was largely as a result of bumper November number of 1.1% which had been boosted by Black Friday sales spending."

He added: "Recent retail sales numbers from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG earlier this month appeared to show that while some retailers were struggling we did see a pickup in January, as consumers started to re-open their wallets after a slow December.

"The recent cold weather in January may well have also prompted an increase in demand for coats and gloves, with an expectation that we could see a rise of 0.6%."

Warehouse demand strong for Segro

On the corporate front, Segro PLC (LON:SGRO), the FTSE 100-listed real estate developer focused on warehousing and light industrial property will report its full-year results on Friday.

In a preview, Graham Spooner, investment research analyst at The Share Centre said: "In its third quarter update in October the company said demand for prime warehouse assets, especially related to ecommerce, remained strong."

He added: "Investors will be looking for information on how rents are performing as well as any change in the vacancy rate. Also, an update on how the APP cargo assets at Heathrow, acquired last year, are performing."

Significant events expected on Friday February 16:

Finals: Segro PLC (LON:SGRO), BGRO Group PLC (LON:BGEO)

Economic data: UK retail sales; US housing starts; University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.3852, up 0.1%
  • Gold: US$1,324.60 an ounce, up 0.1%
  • Brent crude: US$59.62 a barrel, up 0.6%

City Headlines:

  • Burberry targets youth with Farfetch tie-up - The Times
  • Tesco faces shareholder revolt over planned ?3.7 billion takeover of wholesale giant Booker - Daily Mail
  • GKN fights back in takeover battle: Melrose would destroy us, says engineer's Boss - Daily Mail
  • Royal Mail Boss Moya Greene to join board of Rio Tinto - Daily Telegraph
  • Virgin Money hires Irene Dorner to form female top team - The Guardian
  • TalkTalk walk walk? Invesco filings baffle investors - City AM
  • South32 starts to feel "inflationary pressures" in South Africa, Australia - Financial Times
  • Neptune Energy sets aim on being the next BG Group - Financial Times
  • Lidl to create 700 new UK jobs as part of massive expansion drive - The Independent
  • Roche pays US$1.9bn for Alphabet-backed Flatiron Health - Financial Times
  • Amazon pledges to create 2,000 new permanent jobs in France this year - The Independent
  • Google bolsters cloud operations with Xively buy - Daily Telegraph
  • Elon Musk plans to beam broadband internet into homes from space - Daily Mail
  • Uber hails its own move from taxis to public transport - The Times
  • US Bancorp fined over US$600mln for transaction failings - Financial Times
  • AbbVie shares the wealth with dividend boost, $10 billion in buybacks - Financial Times
  • Airbus incurs ?,?1.3 billion charge for delay in delivering military transport planes - The Guardian
  • Nestl?(C) unwraps weaker growth after American dip - The Times
  • Steinhoff appoints ex-KPMG partner as restructuring chief - Financial Times
  • Petrol retailer MRH appoints Dennis Millard as chair ahead of ?1 billion float - City AM
  •  Gaming pioneer Atari the latest company to join cryptocurrency craze - Daily Telegraph
  • China's largest lithium producer Ganfeng files for US$1bn HK IPO - Financial Times

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