FTSE 100 closes down on trade war concerns as market awaits Brexit transition deal approval

By Giles Gwinnett / March 23, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 down 30.65 pts

  • China/US feud intensifies

  • Will EU leaders rubber-stamp Brexit transitional deal?

The FTSE 100 followed other European stocks to remain in the red, as fears of a looming trade war between China and US reared its head again.

The index of UK leading shares closed down 0.44% or 30.65 points at 6,921.94, firmly below the psychological 7,000 level and to a 15-month low.

Banks and mining stocks were the most badly hit as they were seen as the most trade-senstive.

Daniel Lockyer from Hawksmoor Investment Management said: "It could have been anything that caused it, it just happened to be trade." 

In the US, the stocks were also in the red, after moving in directionless trade, moving from positive to negative territories earlier.

Another factor weighing is Brexit. The market is waiting to see if the EU leaders attending a summit in Brussels will rubber-stamp the transition deal negotiated between the EU's Michel Barnier and the UK's David Davis.

Indivior (LON:INDV) managed to recover from its earlier heavy losses after it lost a patent protection case which will now see its best selling heroin falling to generic competition. The shares fell 6.25% or 25.50p to close at 382.80p.

Smiths Group PLC (LON:SMIN) closed down 4.4% after reporting a weaker-than-expected half year profits. 

Next (LON:NXT) was up 7.67% at 4,984p after giving investors some relief that there was no profit warning in its annual results. 

Drugs major GlaxoSmithKline (LON:GSK) added 3.3% after it followed Reckitt Benckiser (LON:RB.) in dropping out of the bidding for Pfizer's Consumer Healthcare business. It also announced European and Japanese approval for its Shingrix shingles vaccine.

Packaging group Robinson PLC (LON:RBN) shed 8.2% or 7.50p to close at 83.50 after reporting a sharp drop in annual profits for 2017.

Meanwhile, butchery firm Crawshaw Group PLC (LON:CRAW) was the worst performer, tanking 29.20% or down 1.65p to close at 4.00p after it reported two board resignations and a challenging trading for the first part of 2018.

Home safety product maker Sprue Aegis PLC (Sprue) (LON:SPRP) was the next worst peformer, slipping 23.2% to 144.00 after a distribution agreement was terminated.

Closely watched Fevertree Drinks PLC (LON:FEVR) shares lost their fizz on Friday after one of its founders sold a 2.6% stake in the premium tonic water maker. Its shares closed on Friday down 5.1% at 2,807p.

 

FTSE 100 down 19 pts

Into the last hours of trading and FTSE 100 is still lower as traders are most certainly taking risk off the table in the current global environment.

The index of UK leading shares is down around 19 at 6,933 - still below the  psychological 7,000 level.

In the currency markets, the pound is up 0.21% against the Euro, while, against, the US dollar, it is up 0.38%.

"Thing is, investors aren't just reacting to the firing of the potential first shot in a trade war, and awaiting the likely retaliation from China, but news that HR McMaster has been replaced as national security advisor by foreign policy hawk John Bolton," said Connor Campbell at Spreadex.

"Bolton, who worked under Reagan and both Bushes and was a key proponent of the Iraq war, has previously backed attacking both North Korea and Iran, and is the latest destabilising figure to enter the White House's already stacked rogue's gallery."

In the US though, having made a bit of an edgy start, Wall Street shares have turned positive, with the Dow Jones up around 100 points.

Next (LON:NXT) is still atop the premier index, despite the fall on profits at the retailer for the third year in a row, as the market chose to focus on the positives going forward.

"While the Retail business is clearly under pressure, it's hard not to be impressed by the work Next has done improving the Online division," said George Salmon, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"Extra marketing has paid dividends, and customer numbers in the lucrative credit business are stabilising. Looking ahead, Next is confident 2018 won't be a repeat of 2017, a clear positive for shareholders."

Smiths Group PLC (LON:SMIN) recouped some losses from earlier but still was down  3.42% to 1,483p to be top loser.

Numis Securities has downgraded its rating on the share to 'reduce' from 'add' in the wake of first-half results from the x-ray machine maker.

The analysts said: "The results are a little disappointing and whilst we see some of the softness, ie more investment in Medical as arguably positive, the overall tenure is still not generating organic growth."

 

2.10pm:  Will FTSE 100 inch back towards positive territory?

London stocks were inching back towards positive ground as US stocks opened mixed but the Dow Jones was  higher.

FTSE 100 is down around 18 points at 6,934 at the time of writing.

On Wall Street, the  Dow Jones is up around 17 points, but the S&P 500 is off 68 points and the Nasdaq is down almost eight points.

It comes as durable-goods orders state-side jumped 3.1% last month (February), which largely reversed the big drop at the start of the year.  An increase of 1.5% was expected.

Shipments surged, which indicated strong growth in business spending on equipment in the first quarter, while business investment also rebounded in what is a good sign for the US economy.

1.10apm: Trade war fears dominate sentiment

FTSE 100 is still lower at mid-session though has recouped some losses.

The index of leading UK shares is down 33 at 6,919 at the time of writing ahead of the Wall Street restart.

Next (LON:NEXT) is still the biggest gainer, up 7.71% at 4,986p, while Smiths Group (LON:SMIN) gets the top laggard prize, down 6.2% at 1,439p.

Drugs major GlaxoSmithKline (LON:GSK) added 4.4% to 1,329p after it followed consumer goods ginat Reckitt Benckiser (LON:RB.) in dropping out of the bidding for Pfizer's Consumer Healthcare business.

In stocks, packaging group Robinson PLC (LON:RBN) tumbled 11% in lunchtime trading to 81p as it reported a sharp drop in annual profits for 2017.

Pre-tax profits fell to ?630,000 from ?1.6mln the previous year due to a reduced gross margin of 19% from 23% caused by the lag effect of increasing resin prices and higher input costs from a weaker pound.

However, revenue for the period rose 9% to ?29.8mln, mainly due to positive exchange rate movements and increased resin prices as well as higher volumes as new business came into production.

11.50am Footsie still under pressure

FTSE 100 was still under pressure approaching noon as US stocks look set for another day of carnage.

The Dow Jones on Wall Street closed out over 724 points lower on Thursday as Trump's tariff plan for China emerged and futures today, show the Dow  down 91 points.

Nasdaq futures are down  40 points at the time of writing, while the S&P 500 futures are down 6.5 points.

 

News Byte: US and China Face off in the start of a trade war! Trump plans to slap Chinese imports with tariffs totalling $60 billion. China has retaliated with a $3 billion tariff plan.

This has sent Wall Street tumbling including the already weak US Dollar. pic.twitter.com/LKlCeGMTij

- News Libre (@newslibreug) 23 March 2018

Connor Campbell, at Spreadex, at the time he looked at it, saw the Dow Jones dipping below 23,900.

 

"How gory this afternoon is will be dependent what the Dow Jones does when the bell rings on Wall Street. Currently the Dow is facing a 75 point decline; that would send it back below 23900, though if the negative momentum that carried through from last night's Asian session into the morning's European trading takes hold the index could well see greater losses," he said.

FTSE 100 is down around 44 points at 6,907, while FTSE 250 is down 106 at 19,287.

A notable London gainer is Brazil-focused Serabi Gold PLC (LON:SRB), which saw shares jump over 29% to 4.70p after news of a US$15mln investment from a private equity group.

The gold miner said mining-focused Greenstone Resources will put in US$15mln to acquire a 29.82% interest in the company via a sUBScription for over 297mln shares.

11.45am: China set to hit back at US..

Beijing has hit back at the order to impose US$60bn worth of tariffs on Chinese imports.

It is planning its own US$3bn of levies on American products, including pork and steel.

It is reportedly considering a 15% tariff on US products like nuts, wine, steel pipes and 25% on meats and recycled aluminium, said a statement from the Chinese Ministry of Trade.

11.20am: Facebook/ Cambridge Analytica: US Professor makes legal challenge

In the next leg of the Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) data saga, a US citizen, is taking Cambridge Analytica to court, in a potentially landmark case.

Cambridge is the London headquartered firm, which worked on Trump's Presidential campaign, and Professor David Carroll wants to get  access to data he says it holds on him.

He also wants Cambridge Analytica to disclose how it came up with the profile it had for him.

Legal experts believe the case could set a precedent for how companies collect data.

11.10am: Melrose makes final bid for GKN; outcome March 29

Investment group Melrose Industries plc (LON:MRO) has issued a final bid to purchase British engineering giant GKN (LON:GKN).

GKN shareholders now have until 1pm on Thursday, March 29 to accept or decline the offer. More than half must accept for it to go through.

The hostile takeover attempt is reportedly worth US$7.8bn and follows months of acrimony between the duo, with politicians also criticising the proposed tie up.

Melrose shares eased 1.04% to 219.40p, while GKN shares shed 0.28% to 428.80p.

10.25am: Trade war fears mean rocky-road for global stocks

President Trump's tariffs and a potential Sino-US trade war  mean another rocky session for stock markets heading into the weekend, says Craig Erlam at Oanda.com.

"For a person who's been obsessed with stock market gains since his election victory 16 months ago, US President Donald Trump doesn't appear too concerned about the impact his tariffs are having at the moment," said the analyst.

The White House wants to impose tariffs on US$60 billion of Chinese products, likely to trigger a retaliation from the world's second largest economy and bring about a series of actions that could end in a full blown trade war.

"The global economy is finally starting to tick along nicely after a decade of efforts to repair the damage of the global financial crisis and the issues that followed and now we're potentially having to deal with an entirely self-inflicted and avoidable problem," said Erlam.

"Already investors have made their feelings known about such measures, with the Dow and S&P 500 yesterday shedding nearly 3% alone and futures suggest it's going to be another rough session as we head into the weekend."

Broker RBC Capital said the move marks the "most unstable trade framework seen since the Second World War" and China is likely to be a victim.

"China is already facing a slowing property market, a more hawkish US Federal Reserve and local CPI at 2.9%. The new tariffs are likely to serve to reduce export demand for goods, but more importantly are likely to reduce wider confidence in the economy as a whole."

The first impacts of this can be seen in the moves over the past 24 hours with steel prices, iron ore prices and base metals prices all lower, analyst Tyler Broda added.

Other commentators pointed out that exports were  important to the Chinese economy, but had been trending less so in recent years and the US has been shrinking as a share of China's export market.

9.45am: Groundhog Day for Footsie..

It was Groundhog day for FTSE 100 in early deals, as the benchmark index plunged nearly 60 points to 6,893.

The FTSE 250 was also a big casualty, losing over 260 points at 19,133..

The big loser on Footsie was Smiths Group (LON:SMIN), which tanked over 10% to 1,381p as the engineering giant put traders right off with half-year sales numbers, while profit was hit by Trump's recent tax reforms.

 

Smiths Group $SMIN shares down over 10% on falling 1H profit and flat revenue. Organic sales down 1%, CEO says that should improve over 2H - but with a currency headwind. https://t.co/HwTgJuIIHc

- Adam Clark (@AdamDowJones) 23 March 2018

High Street darling Next (LON:NEXT) offered a ray of light as shares topped the leaderboard, up 2.89% to 4,770, as results were seemingly not as bad as expected, after saying 2017 was the most 'challenging year' it has faced for 25 years.

 

Richard Hunter, at interactive investor, said: "In the midst of this turmoil, there may be some grounds for optimism.

"Next has listed a whole host of potential improvements to its offering, from an attack on costs, a redesign of its distribution, through to concession expansion and even the particular detail of personalising certain products.

"In the meantime, the online business is something of a ray of light, with sales up 11% (and overseas increasing by 25%), whilst the company's capital strategy remains admirable, with its strong cash flow enabling share buybacks and special dividends where appropriate, in addition to the current and attractive dividend yield of 3.9%."

In other news, Horse Hill galloped into view again as UKOG (LON:UKOG) shares added over 10% to 1.33p as it revealed planning progress on the project in the Weald basin.

HHDL, which owns the 65% interest in the project, has now received final decision notices from Surrey County Council, saying all pre-commencement planning conditions had been met.

Meanwhile, butchery firm Crawshaw Group PLC (LON:CRAW) saw shares chopped 33.6% to 3.7p as it reported two board resignations and a challenging trading for the first part of 2018.

Noel Collett, company chief executive, is stepping down to pursue other opportunities, while Alan Richardson, chief financial officer, intends to leave the business in early May 2018.

Home safety product maker Sprue Aegis PLC (Sprue) (LON:SPRP) slid 22% to 147.5p after a distribution agreement was terminated.

Closely watched Fevertree Drinks PLC (LON:FEVR) shares lost their fizz on Friday after one of its founders sold a 2.6% stake in the premium tonic water maker.

Deputy chairman Charles Rolls offloaded almost double the number of shares he originally intended to sell after receiving significant demand from institutional investors.  Shares dropped 5.4% to 2,796p in morning trading.

8.40am: A global trade war..

Renewed fears over a global trade war felled the FTSE 100, which opened 41 points lower at 6,911.81.

"On the trade front there have been new developments, and they haven't been positive with the rhetoric being ramped up as the US opens up a new front with China, while easing off on its disputes with the EU after a temporary exemption was granted on the steel and aluminium tariffs which were due to start today," said CMC Markets commentator Michael Hewson.

Interim results from engineer Smiths Group (LON:SMIN) didn't make for easy reading with stock marked down 6.9%.

The reaction to Next's (LON:NXT) prelims was one of relief - the retail backdrop is tough, but the figures could have been a lot worse. That was the consensus among the analysts following the clothier as the shares nudged up 2.3%.

GlaxoSmithKline's (LON:GSK) stock led the blue-chip leaderboard as it became the second British firm in as many days to pull out of the US$20bn auction for Pfizer's consumer products division.

Indivior (LON:INDV) was in the wars again after its bid to protect its best selling heroin from cut-price competition failed in a US court. The shares tanked 19%.

Proactive news headlines:

UK Oil & Gas (LON:AIM) saw shares advance over 6% in early deals, as it and Alba Mineral Resources PLC (LON:ALBA), also higher, updated on the planning progress at the closely followed Horse Hill oil project in southern UK. Both are members of the consortium behind the group Horse Hill Developments Ltd (HHDL), which in turn has a 65% participating interest in the project.

ImmuPharma PLC (LON:IMM) said the database lock of its phase III clinical trial of Lupuzor, for the autoimmune disease lupus, is expected on April 6. This is a significant milestone. It denotes the end of the pivotal study, but also prevents unauthorised or unintended changes to the information garnered.

SDX Energy Inc (LON:SDX, CVE:SDX) financial results confirmed a sUBStantial improvement in revenue as it continues to grow operations in Egypt and Morocco. Chief executive Paul Welch described 2017 as an "exceptional year" for the company as it benefitted from its acquisition of Circle Oil's assets and had success with the drill-bit.

Primary Health Properties PLC (LON:PHP), the owner of medical centres and doctors' surgeries, is to raise up to ?100mln by issuing shares at 114p. The price represents a discount of 5.3p to last night's closing share price.

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (LON:COPL) boss Arthur Millholland told investors that the company is looking forward to an upcoming appraisal of the NOA oil discovery, within the OPL 226 area offshore Nigeria. "The past 12 months, our focus was, and continues to be, on developing our highly prospective oil appraisal and development project at OPL 226," he said.

i3 Energy Plc (LON:I3E) told investors that it continues to see progress with its partnering efforts, with talks ongoing with multiple potential joint venture partners. In late 2017, the junior North Sea oiler kicked off the process for a potential farm-out, that could deliver funding to develop the Liberator field.

ADES International Holding Ltd (LON:ADES), the offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services provider, has  signed a US$450mln syndicated credit facility.

Metminco Limited (LON:MNC) (ASX:MNC) said it is now seeking to raise A$5.7mln through a revised rights issue as it shifts its strategy and has named a new executive chairman. The AIM-listed miner said the rights issue would now be on the basis of 9.5 for two 2 renounceable entitlement issues at A$0.8 each to raise circa A$5.6mln combined with a placement of 19mln shares, also at A$0.8 each, to raise around A$150,000.

Premier African Minerals Limited (LON:PREM) has welcomed changes to the indigenisation legislation in Zimbabwe, which potentially pave the way for its holding in tungsten mine RHA to be restructured.

Former diamond miner Golden Saint Resources PLC (LON:GSR) is to cancel its AIM listing ahead of a planned reverse takeover of EMS Wiring Systems. Once that deal completes Golden Saint will re-list on the standard section of London's main market, but until then shareholders will have no formal market on which to trade their shares.

Wolf Minerals Limited (ASX: WLF) (LON:WLFE) announces that an updated corporate presentation is now available for download from the specialty metals producer's website.

6.45am: FTSE 100 called sharply lower

FTSE 100 is poised to start much lower again after slumping yesterday as global stocks get a big hit from Trump's latest tariff plans.

The UK blue-chip benchmark closed around 86 points lower on Thursday to levels last seen in 2016, and is called by IG Index to start 63 points lower than that.

The latest salvo from the US President is a signed memorandum ordering tariffs on up to US$60bn of imports from China, aimed at punishing the country for alleged theft of IP.

The superpower has already retaliated by outlining a list of a potential 128 US products that it could place tariffs on.

The US Treasury is also set to organise a plan to impose new restrictions on Chinese investment within the next 60 days.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down over 1,000 points (over 4.6%) at the time of writing, with exporters like Toyota and Sony seeing shares take a hit. Meanwhile,  the Shanghai Composite Index in China itself lost 111 points at 3,152.

On Wall Street, markets were equally panicked on the move, with the Dow Jones finishing 724 points lower and the S&P 500 down over 68.

"With a risk averse mood dominating, investors rushed to sell out of equities, sending indices lower across the board.  The negative sentiment engulfed Asian markets and the domino effect now looks ready to strike Europe on the open," said analyst Jasper Lawler, at LCG.com.

So as Footsie looks to tank again, what of company news?  

Fashion retailer and traditionally a High Street darling Next Plc (LON:NXT) reports its full year results and the group reported strong trading over final quarter as cold weather saw more customers stock up on winter clothes so optimism is high.

Swiss broker UBS expects 2017 pre-tax profit will be in line with the company's own central guidance and sees an unchanged dividend per share of 158p.

Across the Pond, Dropbox is set to issue 36mln shares at the US market open today in its initial public offering..

Earlier this week, it hiked its target range to between US$18 and US$20 a share valuing the business at US$7.6bn.

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.4167, up 0.20%
  • Gold: US$1,320.70 an ounce, flat
  • Brent crude: US$64.98 a barrel, up 1.06%

City headlines:

  • Bloomberg and Reuters lose data share to smaller rivals - FT
  • Citi restricts gun sales by retail clients - FT
  • Deutsche Bank's DWS puts IPO price at ?,?32.50 a share- FT
  • JPMorgan weighs spin-off for blockchain project- FT
  • AbbVie in $25 billion wipeout after cancer drug results- FT
  • Ultra Electronics appoints new CEO- FT
  • Cambridge Analytica says it took legal action against Kogan company- FT
  • Dropbox prices IPO at $21 per share, valuing it at $9.2 billion - Daily Telegraph
  • Genel Energy back in profit as Kurdish oil payments flow - Telegraph
  • Tesla investors back new pay package for Boss Elon Musk that could see him handed ?40 billion over the next decade - Daily Mail
  • Flybe nosedives by more than a quarter as Stobart Group's ?100 million takeover is abandoned - Mail
  • Ladbrokes fails to recoup ?71 million from HMRC as court rejects rebate claim in long-running tax spat - City AM
  • Rio Tinto sells Australian coal mine for $200 million - The Times
  • Brewdog's growth costs knock profit - The Times
  • Cryptocurrency craze fading, says IG - The Times

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