FTSE 100 closes in red as Powell's hawkish tone gives traders jitters

By John Harrington / February 27, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 closes down 7 at 7,282

  • FTSE 250 up 47 pts

  • Melrose unimpressed by results from bid target GKN

FTSE 100 slipped into the red towards the close and finished down seven points at 7,282 after a fairly lacklustre day.

On Wall Street the Dow Jones and Nasdaq have taken a hit after new chair of the Federal Reserve  Jerome Powell appeared before Congress and struck a more hawkish tone on the central bank'S position.

"Following his appearance US treasury yields jumped higher  to 2.9 as concerns over more aggressive hiking from the Fed took hold," said  Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.

"The jump in treasury yields supported a rally in the dollar, which broke through 89.86 to 90.50 meanwhile, consistent with previous sessions, the high yields  weighed on the US equity indices which sold off."

The Dow is down 56 at the time of writing and the Nasdaq is around 48 points lower.

In London, FTSE 250, in contrast to its bigger brother Footsie, was up around 47 points at 19,875.

Top gainer on Footsie was Sky plc (LON:SKY), which rocketed 20.5% higher in London at 1,331.5p after US giant Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ:CMCSA) unveiled a possible ?22.1bn (US$31bn) all-cash offer to buy the satellite broadcaster, challenging Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox Inc's (NASDAQ:FOX) takeover bid.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, commented "Comcast's approach for Sky is a fascinating development in the battle for media might.

"The deal would have attractions on a number of fronts, not least of which would be the removal of complexity from the current tripartite discussions between Fox, Disney and Sky. In a land where, increasingly, content is king, there would be synergies from a creative programming perspective, whilst the potential showstopper of media plurality concerns would probably not apply to the Comcast bid.

"Meanwhile, the combined group would have a stable of media, production and technology outlets which would position it strongly in any number of countries."

Top loser on Britain's premier share index was mining giant Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES), which shed 4.43% to 1,273p.

 

Footsie uninspired..

Many people did not bother turning up for work because of the weather and it looks like the Footsie had the same attitude.

In the final hour of trading, the FTSE 100 index was up just 7 points at 7,296.

To be fair, there is some justification for traders sitting on their hands ahead of the appearance by Jerome Powell, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, before the House Financial Services Committee today.

"Powell's testimony is likely to provide more support for the Fed hiking at the March meeting; however, since a March hike is already fully priced, the outlook for the Fed's policy further ahead is more interesting," said Andreas Johnson, an economist at Nordic corporate bank, SEB.

"Although we expect Powell to repeat the case for gradual tightening, we will be looking for any indications that the US central bank is starting to lean towards four rather than three hikes in 2018 (we predict four hikes). If Powell sets a more hawkish tone there should be market effects. Yields would rise, the USD would appreciate and US equity markets should lose ground," Johnson said.

"Although Powell will likely stick to a gradual, three hikes scenario, the case for a faster pace of tightening is growing stronger. Very little slack remains in the labour market, inflation pressure is rising and financial conditions are highly accommodative. This makes us confident that the Fed will have to step up the pace of rate hikes," Johnson concluded.

Turning to corporate news flow, Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN) nudged 1% higher to 837.4p following its full-year results and the restoration of its dividend.

"This is a sign of the success of the turnaround implemented by Bill Winters, over the two years that he has headed up the bank. When the current CEO Bill Winters took over the bank two years ago, he halted the dividend payment in an effort to rebuild capital There was a lot of hope riding on Winters that he would be the right person to steer the then troubled bank in the right direction and so in many ways this dividend payment is symbolic of his achievements so far.," suggested Fiona Cincotta at City Index.

Also on the up after results was GKN PLC (LON:GKN), the engineer that is the subject of a hostile bid from Melrose Industries PLC (LON:MRO).

GKN posted a pre-tax profit of ?658mln for the year ended December 31, up from ?292mln a year ago, boosted by favourable exchange rates.

Melrose was not impressed; it said the trading statement was "full of long-term promises and more short-term actual misses".

1.45pm: London back in positive territory ahead of an expected firm start in the US

The Footsie moved back into positive territory in lunchtime trading ahead of what is expected to be firm start on Wall Street.

The FTSE 100 was up 12 at 7,302. Across the pond, the Dow Jones average, which yesterday soared 399 points to 25,709, was expected to open at around 25,739; the S&P 500, which rose 32 points yesterday to close at 2,779.6, was expected to open at around 2,780.5.

"There is a huge sense of anticipation across financial markets today, as investors brace for Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's first congressional testimony later in the day," declared Lukman Otunuga at FXTM.

"Powell's d?(C)but appearance is a big deal and could offer investors a rare opportunity to carefully assess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach under the new chair. Markets will scrutinise Powell's every word, especially his views on inflation and where he sees interest rates this year. Expectations are that he will express optimism over the economic outlook," Otunuga continued.

"With global equity markets still highly sensitive to fears of rising inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, there is a strong suspicion that Powell will choose his words very carefully. If he succeeds in striking an overall balanced view to Congress, market players, who were expecting fireworks, may be left empty-handed. There still remains a possibility of equity bears making an unwelcome appearance if the testimony results in stimulating expectations of four US interest rates hikes this year," the analyst predicted.

On the equity front, much of the noise was being made by big names today such as Provident Financial, Persimmon and Sky, but further down the greasy pole Nostra Terra Oil & Gas Company PLC (LON:NTOG) was enjoying a rare spell in the sun after it revealed it was cash flow positive at the PLC level in February.

The shares rose by a sixth to 4.4p on the news.

Elsewhere in the resources sector, Strategic Minerals Plc (LON:SML) climbed 0.15p to 2.1p after it announced it expects to tie up the acquisition of the Leigh Creek copper mine in Australia by early next week.

All requirements, including Foreign Investment Review Board approval, have now been met, Strategic said, with settlement to take place within five business days.


 

11.45am: FTSE 100 slips into the red

The blue-chip index has slipped into the red, as investors turn their eyes west and Jerome Powell's first appearance as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The FTSE 100 was down 16 points at 7,274, with aerospace engineer Meggitt plc (LON:MGGT) leading the descent after below par full-year results.

Excluding a ?25.3mln gain from disposals, underlying pre-tax profit came to ?357.9mln, a 2% year-on-year increase on a reported basis but a 1% decline on an organic basis. 

Underlying operating profit increased 2% to ?388mln thanks to a 10 basis points rise in the operating margin to 19.2%, but it was 2% below the company compiled consensus estimate.

Away from the corporate news flow, market analysts are busy trying to second-guess what Jerome Powell, the new head honcho at the US central bank, will say when he appears before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee to discuss the semi-annual monetary report.

"With Powell having just replaced Janet Yellen as head of the central bank - and not even led a meeting at this stage - today's hearing will likely attract heightened attention as traders look for clues on the direction that he plans to take it," observed Craig Erlam at Oanda.

"The feeling so far is that Powell is unlikely to diverge from the current path which would imply three rate hikes this year but with the economy strengthening and tax reform potentially providing additional stimulus, a fourth hike may be warranted this year and along with additional increases further down the road. The market seems quite well positioned on this at the moment, which may reduce the likelihood of significant shocks, although we've seen how vulnerable markets have shown themselves to be in recent weeks," Erlam said.

James Hughes at Axi Trader, reckons "there will be a small question mark" over what Powell's grand plan is.

"Does he remain pragmatic and toe the party line when it comes to policy, the balance sheet and the inflation outlook? Or, just maybe, does he set to build his reputation and go in all guns blazing? There are arguments for both approaches but the safe money is on the former," Hughes suggests, predicting that Powell will take the last FOMC meeting minutes and almost repeat them word for word.

9.45am: Sky and Persimmon do their bit to keep the Footsie in positive territory

Considering the boost it has been given by corporate news from Sky and Persimmon, the Footsie's advance this morning has been a bit pedestrian.

The top-shares index was up 11 at 7,301, with Sky PLC (LON:SKY), up 19%, and Persimmon PLC (LON:PSN), up 11%, leading the way.

Rupert Murdoch's long-held ambition to gain total control of Sky PLC (LON:SKY) has received another knock-back, with US cable TV leviathan Comcast gazumping the offer from Murdoch's 21st Century Fox.

US cable TV giant Comcast makes takeover bid for Sky rivalling existing offer from Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox https://t.co/twCi4R5XRE

- BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) February 27, 2018

As Fox owns 39% of Sky it won't exactly be walking off empty-handed if it loses this bid battle.

As for Persimmon PLC (LON:PSN), the house-builder gave the whole sector a lift with its full-year results.

One thing the company does very well, even better than building houses, is dish out the fistfuls of money it has accumulated from Britain's bonkers housing market.

The company announced additional payments of 125p per share will be made each year for the next three years, increasing the total value of the plan by 375p to ?13 a share; when it was originally announced, the plan was to return 620p per share.

Having taken a bath yesterday after news of its planned rights issue leaked out, shares in doorstep lender Provident Financial PLC (LON:PFG) were the top risers in London this morning, rising 63% to 960p as its two major shareholders backed the fund-raising exercise.

Provident Financial shares now up 75% today, but that's a molehill compared to how much it's fallen over the last year. pic.twitter.com/fVG7QJuDXc

- Peter Hoskins (@PeterHoskinsTV) February 27, 2018

Vanquis (part of Provident Financial) has been ordered to pay almost ?169m in compensation to customers.

- Chris Choi (@Chrisitv) February 27, 2018

Doorstep lender begs shareholders for loan https://t.co/7g5osku0Gz surely someone will lend it ?500m at 535.3% APR? It's what it charges its poor customers!

- Paul Lewis (@paullewismoney) February 27, 2018

Open: A steppe forward ...

The supermarket shelves may be empty and commuter trains cancelled as Britain braced for the Beast from the East, the harbinger of snow and ice direct from the Russian steppes.

However in London's Square Mile everything, it seemed, was warm and toasty with the FTSE 100 up 26 points at 7,316.04 and deal flow keeping the radiators warm.

Up 27% early doors was Sky (LON:SKY) after Comcast surprised everyone with a ?22bn bid for the satellite broadcaster 39% owned by Rupert Murdoch.

The media and telecoms company, which owns NBC Universal, pitched its all-cash offer at ?12.50 per share - a 16% premium to a deal tabled by Murdoch's 21st Century Fox.

The move will have all sorts of connotations for the media sector both here and abroad. Consolidation hopes pumped shares in ITV (LON:ITV) 3% higher.

Overshadowed by all the hoopla around Sky was builder Persimmon (LON:PSN), whose shares jumped 10.5% as it said shareholders would receive a windfall dividend payment after a strong year.

On the decline was GKN (LON:GKN), the focus of a ?7.4bn bid from the buy-and-build merchants (or asset strippers depending on where you stand) at Melrose (LON:MRO). GKN's stock slid in the wake of results, which as expected, recorded a sharp fall in pre-tax profits.

Moving down a division to the FTSE 250. All the Sunday briefing worked for Provident Financial (LON:PFG), the cash strapped doorstep lender.

Talk of a ?500mln rights issue hit the stock Monday. Twenty-four hours on the shares were up 28% as it turned out PFG was ONLY raising ?331mln. Funny how the City works!

Proactive news headlines:

Strategic Minerals Plc (LON:SML) expects to tie up the acquisition of the Leigh Creek Copper mine in Australia by early next week. All requirements, including Foreign Investment Review Board approval, have now been met, Strategic said, with settlement to take place within five business days. Consideration will be A$1.5mln ( ?850,000) cash and shares worth A$1.45mln. Big Pic needed.

Chariot Oil & Gas Limited (LON:CHAR) has confirmed a US$15mln fund raise has now taken place, via a share placing to new and existing institutional (and other) investors. Some 82.5mln new shares are being issued, at a price of 13p each. The capital injection is intended to allow Chariot to drill the Prospect S exploration target offshore Namibia - giving the explorer a second-high impact well this year. It also has a 10% stake in the Eni operated Rabat Deep venture, offshore Morocco. Big Pic in August.

Marketing automation platform operator dotdigital Group PLC (LON:DOTD) is on course to meet full-year expectations after a "transformational" first half to the fiscal year. Revenue in the six months to December 31, 2017, surged to ?18.77mln from ?14.98mln the year before. Organic revenue grew 17% to ?17.5mln from ?15mln the previous year. Big Pic down two weeks ago.

Genedrive PLC (LON:GDR) has been awarded ?1.1mln in funding by Innovate UK for product development of its Genedrive tuberculosis testing kit. The grant will be used for the further development of a high-sensitivity bacterial sample preparation module for the Genedrive instrument. Big Pic in January.

Clinigen Group PLC (LON:CLIN) said second-half trading so far was in line with expectations as it served up a solid performance in the first six months of the trading year. Its top line growth had been well flagged in an update last month. Big Pic last month.

SDX Energy Inc (LON:SDX, CVE:SDX) has told investors that it has begun drilling operations for the SAH-2 development well on the Sebou permit, onshore Morocco. The company said that the SAH-2 well is expected to take between fifteen and twenty days to drill. Big Pic in November.

WideCells Group PLC (LON:WDC) has taken a "significant step" towards becoming an end-to-end stem cell service company, according to chief executive Jo??o Andrade. His comments followed the grant of a licence by the UK's Human Tissue Authority, which allows the company import, export, process, store and distribute for treatment umbilical cord blood and tissue. Big Pic in September.

W Resources PLC (LON:WRES) has secured access and approvals for trial mining to commence at the Regua tungsten project in Portugal. Chairman Michael Masterman referred to W's La Parrilla project in Spain as the "flagship" and to Regula as the "quiet achiever."

Stratex International plc (LON:STI) ended the year to December 2017 with ?2mln in the bank, after booking losses on the sale of its stake in Goldstone Resources and costs relating to the aborted acquisition of Crusader Resources. US$8mln in profit was made on the sale of an interest in the Altintepe mine in Turkey. Overall, the net loss after tax rang in at ?5.4mln. Big Pic in February.

Amur Minerals Corporation (LON:AMC) has outlined a substantial programme of works for 2018 at its Kun-Manie nickel sulphide project in Russia. The programme includes significant conceptual development work, as Kun-Manie now moves beyond the exploration phase. In addition, Amur will consider options for the production of a product designed for the electric vehicle market. Big Pic in July.

Marketing and media analytics consultancy Ebiquity plc (LON:EBQ) has named Rob Woodward as its chairman-designate with effect from 1 March 2018. The AIM-listed company said Woodward - appointed a non-executive director from that same date - will succeed Michael Higgins, the company's chairman for the past 12 years, who will step down from the board after the group's annual general meeting on 9 May 2018. Big Pic in February.

Eckoh PLC (LON:ECK)  said it has received notification that on 26 February 2018 its chief executive, Nik Philpot purchased 50,000 ordinary shares of the company at a price of 39.4p each. In addition, Philpot has transferred 50,000 ordinary shares of his own beneficial holding to his Self Invested Pension (SIPP), together with the newly purchased shares, also at a price of 39.4p each. Furthermore, the company said it has also been notified that on 26 February 2018 its non-executive chairman Christopher Humphrey also purchased a total of 50,000 Ordinary Shares at a price of 39.349p each. As a result of his share purchase, Philpot's holding in Eckoh is a total of 6,926,285 ordinary shares, representing 2.74% of the issued share capital, and Humphrey's holding is a total of 400,000 ordinary shares, representing 0.16%. of the issued share capital.

6.45am: Positive start predicted

The Footsie is seen pushing higher on Tuesday, extending yesterday's advance driven by strong overnight gains from US and Asian markets ahead of new Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell's first congressional testimony to be delivered later today.

Spread betting firm IG expects the FTSE 100 index to open around 28 points higher at 7,317, having gained 45 points on Monday.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones jumped nearly 400 points higher to close at 25,709 helped by a fall in bond yields as investors positioned for the new Fed chief's speech hoping for further hints on the path for US interest rate hikes.

Asian shares continued their recovery today from a two-month low hit earlier this month, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 1% to a three-week high.

On currency markets, the pound remained steady versus the dollar and the euro helped by a survey released overnight that showed sales expectations among small and medium-sized UK manufacturers had hit a three-year high.

On the corporate front, the last of the blue-chip banking results for 2017 was released on Tuesday, with Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN) the final lender out of the traps.

The emerging markets-focused bank finally resumed dividend payments after reporting a six-fold jump in full-year pre-tax profit to US$2.41bn ( ?1.73bn) as it continued its recovery after a two-year restructuring, although that number was below the US$2.7bn outcome analysts had predicted.

Standard Chartered said it will pay a full-year dividend of 11 US cents having disappointed investors with the lack of a payout with its interims.

Costs a focus for Persimmon

Updates from UK housebuilders will be a big focus this week with Persimmon PLC (LON:PSN) first up on Tuesday, having already tipped the wink that revenues in 2017 were ?3.42bn, driven by a 6% increase in volumes and a 3% rise in the average selling price, with the market expecting pre-tax profit of ?972mln.

In a preview, analysts at retail investor-focused broker, The Share Centre said: "While investors expect profitability to have risen well too, we know that housebuilders are facing increasing costs related to finding skilled labour and increased material prices."

Special divi focus for Direct Line

FTSE 100-listed insurer Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LON:DLG) will also report full-year numbers on Tuesday, but as it too has already pre-announced headline pre-tax profit for 2017, which was ahead of market expectations, the main focus is likely to be on the size of any special dividend.

Numis Securities analysts are forecasting a special payout of 13.1p, which is based on management reducing the Solvency II capital ratio into the middle of the target range of 160-180%.

In a preview, they said: "We expect DLG to post improved customer growth in motor and commercial, whilst home is likely to remain challenging. "

Significant events expected on Tuesday February 27:

Finals: Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN), Croda International PLC (LON:CRDA), Dalata Hotel Group Plc (LON:DAL),  Derwent London PLC (LON:DLN), Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LON:DLG), Drax Group PLC (LON:DRX), FBD Holdings PLC (LON:FBH), Fresnillo PLC (LON:FRES), GKN PLC (LON:GKN), Greggs plc (LON:GRG), Inchcape PLC (LON:INCH),  Johnson Service Group plc (LON: JSG), Jupiter Fund Management PLC (LON:JUP), Meggitt plc (LON:MGGT), Persimmon PLC (LON:PSN), Provident Financial Group PLC (LON:PFG), Virgin Money Group PLC (LON:VM.)

Interims: Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited (LON:BSIF), Clinigen Group PLC (LON:CLIN), DotDigital Group PLC (LON:DOTD), Swallowfield plc (LON:SWL)

Economic data: US durable goods orders; US international trade in goods; US FHFA house price index

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.3969, up 0.1%
  • Gold: US$1,332.40 an ounce, up 0.2%
  • Brent crude: US$63.80 a barrel, down 0.2%

City Headlines:

  • Disgraced ex-Lloyds Chief sues demanding his old employer pays him a ?1.3mln bonus - Daily Mail
  • RBS to put 5,000 firms through incubator this year - Scottish Herald
  • Rio Tinto strikes deal to offload last European aluminium assets - Financial Times
  • Vodafone open to adding UK assets to Liberty Global deal talks - Financial Times
  • Stagecoach blames government for East Coast mainline failings - Financial Times
  • Ryanair shrugs off pilot group's call for Chief Executive Michael O'Leary to resign to return the airline "to its rightful place" - City AM
  • Export boom drives Aston Martin to first profit in eight years as new DB11 proves a hit in China and the US - Daily Mail
  • Hammerson lifts rents even as retail sales slide - Financial Times
  • Hurricane, fire and flood hit Hiscox's bottom line - The Times
  • Ascential puts exhibitions in spotlight - The Times
  • Marie Claire and NME publisher Time Inc UK has been scooped up by private equity firm Epiris for around ?120mln - City AM
  • Fitbit warns over tough competition, after selling fewer devices in 2017 - Daily Telegraph
  • Alibaba in talks to acquire China takeout app Ele.me - Financial Times
  • Goldman Sachs considering sale and leaseback of new London headquarters - Daily Telegraph
  • Qualcomm open to Broadcom bid but seeks $160 billion price tag - Financial Times
  • Honeywell names chair of home heating and security business spin-off: - Financial Times
  • Daimler has backseat driver as Geely take stake - The Times
  • Jefferies hires former Credit Suisse Australia investment banking head - Financial Times
  • AIA Group new business value rises 28% in 2017 - Financial Times
  • Valeo doubles forecast for electric car sales - Financial Times
  • Starbucks trials 5p cup charge in bid to tackle plastic waste problem - The Independent
  • Lingerie retailer La Perla bought by Lars Windhorst's investment house - Daily Mail
  • PwC joins Tesco, JP Morgan, Zoopla and others to launch new women in tech chart - The Independent
  • UK environment targets could be missed due to anti-diesel backlash, motor industry warns - The Independent
  • Law firms Berwin Leighton Paisner and Bryan Cave get the green light to merge creating a US$900mln revenue business - City AM

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