FTSE 100 closes on a high but latest UK stats weigh on retailers

By Jamie Ashcroft / January 19, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 closes higher

  • December UK retail sales disappoint

  • London listed retailers struggle

  • Dignity shares slump on profit warning

 

FTSE 100 closed  in positive territory - up almost 30 points at 7,730.

It comes after the top tier index has had a negative week.

Friday's rally was driven by a  range of stocks from various sectors, including healthcare, mining, consumer staples and financials.

FTSE 250 however, the more UK company focused index,  closed lower, shedding 11.7 points at 20,653.

Top gainer on FTSE 100 was budget carrier easyJet (LON:EZJ), which flew 4.73% higher to 1,584.5p. The company  stands to benefit from a consolidation of the short-haul flight industry and a stronger euro against the pound, Morgan Stanley said on Friday.

Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the company to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight' and raised its target price to 1,725p from 1,490p.

Top laggard on Footsie was Kingfisher plc (LON:KGF), which lost 2.30% to 336.10p, pulled down by worse-than-expected retail sector sales stats.

UK sales fell by 1.5% in December against November, the biggest monthly fall since the EU referendum, the figures showed.

The ONS (Office for National Statistics) said many shoppers had shifted their spending back to November due to the Black Friday offers.

Next (LON:NEXT) was also lower, down 1.65% to 4,898p.

3:15pm: Bitcoin and Ethereum rally while Ripple XRP lowers

The price of Bitcoin climbed US$297 or 2.6% to trade at US$11,547 each on Friday as the market for cryptocurrencies settled for a steady close to the week.

Ethereum gained US$22 or 2% to US$1,056, however Ripple's XRP coin moved slightly lower to US$1.61.

2:45pm: FTSE 100 set to break the losing streak, Wall Street makes a steady start

Wall Street got off to steady start on Friday, nonetheless, in London the FTSE 100 remained in plus territory.

The FTSE 100 was up around 29 points, 0.38%, trading at 7,730 while the FTSE 250 was slightly lower, down 10 points at 20,654.

In New York, the Dow Jones made an ever so slightly positive start, rising 7 points to 26,024 in Friday's early deal though plainly some volatility remains ahead of the Senate vote on a government funding bill.

The S&P 500, meanwhile, moved up 0.29% to 2,806 and the Nasdaq was more or less flat at 7,298.

1:00pm: FTSE 100 stay positive as Wall Street benchmarks point higher ahead of Senate vote

London's FTSE 100 was up 19 points, 0.25%, changing hands at 7,720.

Wall Street is seen on the front foot ahead of Friday's open,  even though there's still the possibility of a government shutdown in Washington with the Senate due to vote on a temporary spending bill.

The Dow Jones futures advanced 75 points ahead of the open, at 26,020, meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were also seen rising.

"Investors don't appear particularly bothered about the prospect of a government shutdown, with the assumption being that one will eventually be signed and any economic impact will be minor or non-existent," said Craig Erlam, analyst at OANDA.

"While the US dollar has remained under significant pressure, there is little to suggest this is related to the budget talks while rising US yields is likely more a reflection of the general central bank tightening environment."

Erlam said that despite the bill getting through the House of Representatives it will be far more challenging passing the bill through the Senate, meaning the looming shutdown is likely.

He added: "The question now is how long the shutdown will last as that will determine what, if anything, the economic impact could be.

"The last shutdown lasted a couple of weeks and the long-term impact was marginal which may explain the current relaxed attitude towards another."

12:00pm: FTSE 100 holding positive, despite scrutiny on UK's troubled retailers

The FTSE 100 was holding positive ground, up 21 points to 0.28%, changing hands at 7,722 at midday and now looks like it might be able to break this week's losing streak.

At the same time, the more domestically focussed FTSE 250 index was down 26 points or 0.13% trading at 20,638.

Much of the focus has remained on the troubled retail sector.

"It's another bad day for the UK high street with more profits warnings, this time from Bonmarche, Carpetright and Dignity," said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets.

"Trading updates from the trio only add to a stream of negative new year messages from management about poor footfall, cost conscious consumers and growing preference for online versus in-store."

Van Dulken highlighted that the blue-chips, typically multination companies with significant US dollar earnings, are supported by a weaker British pound as well as attentions on an upcoming US Senate vote which could stave off a government shutdown in Washington DC.

10:45am: High street stocks hit by disappointing December retail sales stats

Disappointing, worse-than-expected retail sector sales statistics have lumped pressure on B&Q owner Kingfisher Plc (LON:KGF) and consumer electronics seller Dixons Carphone Plc (LON:DC), with the shares down 3.4% and 2.5% respectively to 333p and 189.4p.

Primark owner Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF), meanwhile, followed Thursday's disappointing trading to lose a further 5p or 0.18% to change hands at 2,750p

Clothes and homeware retailer Next Plc (LON:NXT) shed 53p or 1.1% to trade at 4,925, while Debenhams Plc (LON:DEB) was 0.33% lower at 30p and Marks & Spencer Plc (LON:MKS) shares gave away 0.23% to 305.5p.

Branded apparel sellers JD Sports Plc (LON:JD. and Sports Direct International Plc (LON:SPD) lost 1.25% and 0.6%, trading at 372.3p and 372.75p respectively.

J Sainsbury plc (LON:SRBY), which owns Argos as well as its supermarket business, was down 0.19% to 257.2p.

Tesco Plc (LON:TSCO) dipped 0.67%, whereas WM Morrison Supermarkets Plc  (LON:MRW) was down slightly at 228.7p.

10:40am: Bank of England can't ignore weak UK consumers - economist

Economists in the London offices of Dutch bank ING reckon Friday's disappointing retail sales figures should "treated with caution", because the rise in online shopping makes data analysis "a nightmare", nonetheless, they are in agreement that the sector is seeing tougher times.

James Smith, a developed markets economist for ING, highlighted that many retailers had to steeply cut prices in the final weeks of the Christmas trading period, and that the outlook remains negative going forward.

"Looking ahead, we see few catalysts for a recovery in spending over the next few months. Whilst prices in general have largely adjusted to the post-Brexit weakening in the pound, food and fuel costs are continuing to rise," Smith said.

"And whilst signs of skills shortages in certain sectors have prompted the Bank of England to forecast a sharp acceleration in wage growth, there is also a risk that some firms remain cautious, as economic demand and other input cost pressures continue to bite.

"Putting this together, real disposable incomes are likely to remain at best flat over the next few months."

The economist added: "This gives the Bank of England a conundrum. Admittedly, the Bank's forecasts already incorporate further weakness in spending, but given that the consumer represents such a large share of UK growth, the slowdown can't be fully ignored.

"We very narrowly think the Bank of England will remain on hold this year, although if it does opt to hike again, we think May's meeting is the most likely opportunity."

10:00am: FTSE 100 finds support even as weak retail sales data adds to January blues

Whilst the morning's early deals offered some hope that the FTSE 100 may potentially avoid extending its losing streak - the FTSE 100 was up about 10 points or 0.13% changing hands at 7,708 - but, 'that Friday feeling' may be hard to find.

Indeed, if they look beyond the headline number, the benchmark's apparent recovery won't make too many investors feel all that cheery. London's FTSE 250 index, which hosts more domestic focussed firms than multinationals, was down 17 points or 0.08% at 20,647p.

The move in the index of top 100 stocks was largely thanks to dollar earners, emboldened by a drop off in the British pound following woeful retail statistics.

It appears to have been a blue Christmas for the UK high street, according to December UK retail sales statistics released this morning, which showed a 1.5% decline which was not only worse than expected but also steeper than the 1.1% fall seen in November.

The festive season has "failed to offer as big of a festive bump as was hoped", said David Cheetam, analyst at online broker XTB.

"Individual retailers have already reported mixed results over the key Christmas period with M&S and Debenhams disappointing whilst supermarkets such as Tesco, Aldi and Lidl all excelled," Cheetham added.

Naeem Aslam, analyst at Think Markets UK, meanwhile, described the figures as "awful" and highlighted that "consumers are not ready to support the economy" as he gave a bearish view on the British pound.

Elsewhere, AXI Trader James Hughes warned that there'll now be concern over London's retailing stocks ahead of results season.

"The numbers show a worsening picture for sales around the all important Christmas period with the number showing the worst December for retail sales since 2010.

"The retail industry does rest a lot on a strong period over Christmas and without that could well be online for a tough reporting season."

9:30am: FTSE 100 offers faint hope of positivity after Friday's early deals

The morning's early deals offered investor some faint hope that the FTSE 100 may potentially avoid extending its losing streak for a fifth day.

By 9:30, the FTSE 100 was up about 3 points or 0.03% changing hands at 7,703 - which in reality is more or less flat, so investors won't be banking on that positive session just yet.

8.25am: Weak start, as expected

The FTSE 100's early deals were lit in red, as anticipated, setting London's market up for its fifth down-day.

The UK benchmark index was down 5 points at 7,695 in the minutes after Friday's start.

The week began with 'blue Monday', supposedly the "saddest" day of the year, it has seen the collapse of government contractor Carillion and for four straight days the FTSE 100 has fallen.

Friday has, meanwhile, brought a profit warning for the UK's only listed funeral services firm, Dignity PLC (LON:DTY), so, things haven't exactly become any cheerier in the market.

Consolation, perhaps, comes from the fact that London's week in the doldrums has been fairly dull, there's not been anything like the volatility seen on Wall Street or in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets (the latter has seen falls in the order of 30-50% in recent days).

In the United States, Trump tax positivity has been undermined by the possibility of government shutdown, due to stalled budgeting, nonetheless, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have set new record highs at points during the week.

"With US stocks once again hitting record highs this week, the weekend fast approaching, and a growing impasse in Washington showing no signs of being broken, we saw some light profit taking as the prospect of a US government shutdown came closer to being realised," said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets.

"This weakness is likely to translate into a lower European open this morning in a week where European stocks have struggled for direction, against a continued difficult and uncertain political backdrop in Germany."

Proactive news headlines:

An esports franchise backed by several football superstars has become the latest addition to the line-up for the third season of Gfinity Plc's (LON:GFIN) Elite Series gaming tournament. Paris-based ARES - which is supported by Bayern Munich's James Rodriguez and Yannick Carrasco of Atletico Madrid among others - has acquired its place on the roster for the event which is due to kick off in March.

Emerging markets fund APQ Global Limited (LON:APQ) saw the value of its portfolio rise over the past year. The fund has an objective to pay a fully covered dividend yielding 6% while also ensuring the book value grows by between 5%-10% annually. At the end of December, unaudited book value was 128.11c (94.67p) up from 127.3c in November and 122.52c at the start of the year.

AFC Energy plc (LON:AFC) told investors that the quarter ended December 31 was important as the company "achieved very significant improvements" for its fuel cell system. The company said it now believes the system has demonstrated a platform for future commercial deployment, with the projected performance ahead of objectives set in 2017. Indeed, it added that successful results from early operations, through December and January, continue to validate this expectation.

Motif Bio Plc (LON:MFTB) (NASDAQ:MTFB), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company specialising in developing novel antibiotics, said it has filed a "universal" shelf registration statement on Form F-3 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The group said filing is a common practice by NASDAQ-listed companies, and is intended to provide the company with more timely and efficient access to US capital markets.

Rose Petroleum PLC (LON:ROSE) has said its wholly owned US subsidiary will be exhibiting at the 2018 NAPE Oil and Gas Business Conference being held in Houston from 6-9 February, 2018. The AIM quoted natural resources business also said it will be updating the market shortly with the results from the interpretation of data from the recent 3D seismic shoot over its acreage in the Paradox Basin.

Base Resources Limited (LON:BSE) has successfully closed the retail component of the 1 for 3 accelerated renounceable pro rata entitlement offer, announced on Tuesday, 19 December 2017. It said eligible retail shareholders subscribed for approximately 30.2mln new Base Resources ordinary shares at A$0.255 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately A$7.7mln.

Range Resources Limited (LON:RRL) has published its ongoing investor Q&A addressing questions from shareholders, which can be accessed at: http://www.rangeresources.co.uk/uploads/media/investor_qa_180118.pdf

6.45am: FTSE 100 seen lower

The Footsie is seen starting modestly lower on Friday, extending yesterday's falls, as a big drop by US markets was countered by gains today in Asian, with UK retail sales data the main focus.

Spread betting firm CMC Markets expects the FTSE 100 index to open around 6 points lower at 7,694, having shed 24.47 points on Thursday.

On currency markets, the pound ticked higher again versus the dollar, up 0.1% to US$1.3906, but was flat against the euro awaiting the release of the latest official UK retail sales data.

The British Retail Consortium survey, released the week before last, showed that sales between 26 November and 30 December were 1.4% higher than a year earlier.

The BRC data also suggested there was faster growth in spending on clothing than many other items and that online spending rose more significantly than in-store spending, while food purchases also increased pretty quickly.

Given that the BRC has an invested interest in promoting the industry, it will be interesting to see if the Office for National Statistics' numbers match up.

The final day of the week is fairly light on the corporate diary, with just one small cap retailer scheduled to issue a trading update.

Back at the end of November, womenswear value retailer Bonmarche Holdings PLC (LON:BON) saw its shares soar after the company said its pretax profit more than doubled to ?4.2mln in the first half of its financial year, even though revenue grew by just 5.0%.

Investors will be hoping for more of the same over the key Christmas period given the BRC indications for faster growth in spending on clothing.

Significant events expected on Friday January 19:

Trading updates: Bonmarche Holdings PLC (BON), Record PLC (LON:REC)

Economic data: UK retail sales; US consumer sentiment

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.3905, up 0.1%
  • Gold: US$1,330.60 an ounce, up 0.4%
  • Brent crude: US$63.12 a barrel, down 1.3%

City Headlines:

  • HSBC to pay US$100mln in currency rigging settlement: - Daily Telegraph
  • Banks extend ?225mln lifeline to Carillion subcontractors as firms offer jobs - The Guardian
  • Santander Chief ran toxic RBS arm that sunk small firms and seized their assets, MPs claim - Daily Mail
  • BP signs deal with Iraq to more than double production at its Kirkuk oil fields - Daily Mail
  • Ryanair agrees 20% pay rise for UK pilots in bid to ease tensions - Daily Telegraph
  • Serious Fraud Office opens bribery and corruption investigation into ammunition maker Chemring - The Independent
  • Pinched-for-cash Poundworld in talks with TPG for more money after poor festive trading - CityAM
  • IBM sees revenue grow though long-term concerns linger - Financial Times
  • American Express suspends buybacks after tax hit - Financial Times
  • Apple gives British staff bonus from US tax cut - The Times
  • Amazon shortlists 20 cities for its new headquarters - The Times
  • Uber told to focus on U.S. and Europe as SoftBank deal closes - Financial Times
  • Nigeria sues JP Morgan for US$875mln over offshore deal 'negligence' - The Times
  • Peugeot to offer electric option for all cars by 2025 - Financial Times
  • Aldi and Asda become latest supermarkets to ban sale of high-caffeine energy drinks to under 16s - The Independent
  • Builder Redrow launches UK's first housebuilding degree - The Independent
  • Bitcoin miners head to Canada amid China crackdown on cryptocurrency - Daily Express

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