FTSE 100 slides as dollar rallies on expectations of a March rate hike by the Fed

By Tom Howard / February 02, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 down 47 points to 7,443

  • US non-farm payroll additions come in above expectations

  • US wage growth makes March rate hike likely 

  • Dollar resurgence weighs heavily on Footsie stocks

  • Bitcoin drops below US$8,000 before rallying

With the dollar galvanised by the US jobless figures, which made a US rate hike next month more likely, UK stocks were under the cosh.

Miners, in particular, were hit hard as commodities are quoted in dollars, with the likes of Glencore PLC (LON:GLEN) and Anglo American PLC (LON:AAL) suffering big falls.

The FTSE 100 finished 47 points lower at 7,443.

Pundits seized on the much higher-than-expected growth in US wages in today's non-farm payrolls data, which appeared to pave the way for the Fed to increase interest rates next month.

"The thinking is that the Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates a further three times in 2018 is vindicated by green shoots in personal income growth, and with Treasurys signalling the economy could grow at a faster pace than the Fed has planned for, pay growth that's finally catching up could force the Fed to hike faster than it foresees," suggested Ken Odeluga, a market analyst at spread better City Index.

 

3.05pm: FTSE 100 starting to sink

Shortly before market close here in London, the FTSE 100 look like it's heading for its fourth consecutive day of losses.

Not even a beat from the latest round of jobs data could spur the index into action late on, while a few heavyweights were doing just that: weighing heavy.

Shortly after 3pm, the footsie was off 48.2 points, or 0.6%, to 7,442.2.

BT Group plc (LON:BT.A) is sitll the biggest blue chip faller, down 4.4% to 244.8p after the telecoms giant blamed costs related to pensions, business rates and investments as third-quarter profits were dragged lower.

Energy regulator Ofgem's investigation into independent gas and electricity supplier Ovo is weighing on two FTSE 100 energy giants, British Gas owner Centrica PLC (LON:CAN) and SSE plc (LON:SSE).

Ofgem is looking at whether Ovo has been giving inaccurate information to its customers over how much energy they've been using.

Investors in other energy companies have been looking over their shoulder in case the regulator turns their attention to them, with Centrica shares losing 1.6% to 128.8p and SSE down 1.3% to ?12.60.

One of the few moving higher this morning was Irish packaging company Smurfit Kappa Group PLC (LON:SKG).

The stock is up 1.8% to ?25.78 ahead of its final results next Wednesday, with City broker Numis claiming earlier in the week that trading conditions towards the end of its year had been "favourable".

2.45pm: ImmuPharma 'weeks away' from pivotal data

2.15pm: Bitcoin plunges (again)

Please feel free to stop me if you've heard this before, but Bitcoin has tanked again today.

The coins started the week with a value of US$11,700 but are now trading at around US$8,600. Bear in mind that only a matter of weeks ago one Bitcoin would've set you back almost US$20,000.

This week's drop is largely due to the introduction of new regulations on anonymous trading accounts in South Korea - one of the cryptocurrency's largest market.

There have also been reports that Facebook is looking to ban cryptocurrency adverts on its site, while US regulators are also investigating Bitcoin's meteoric rise at the end of 2017.

Now Bitcoin crashing below 8000, headed towards 7000. Down 60% from the peak, 40% in a month and over 10% today. The Mother Of All Bubbles And Biggest Bubble in Human History Comes Down Crashing. pic.twitter.com/jfILcrNNXA

- Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) February 2, 2018

1.45pm: US jobs data beats forecasts

The monthly jobs report was a positive read with 200,000 new jobs created in January, up from the 180,000 expected.

Meanwhile, the  US jobless rate remains at 4.1%, a 17-year low.

Wages rose too, by 0.3% during the month and a healthy 2.9% year-on-year (that's average hourly earnings).

"While criticism of Donald Trump's embattled White House continues to mount, job growth continues to go through the gears, with the latest nonfarm payroll figures proving job creation remains a competence within the president's capabilities," said Denis de Jong, at UFX.com.

"Buoyant domestic and global demand, particularly for the manufacturing sector, appear the drivers in higher-than-anticipated numbers, and Trump's fiscal stimulus package is clearly a shot in the arm for economic growth."

FTSE 100 is down over 22 points at the time of writing, at 7,467

1.15pm:Heading for losses

The FTSE 100 looks to be heading for its fourth consecutive day of losses as some big names racked up some big falls, while only a few blue chips could muster any gains.

Shortly before 1pm, the index was off 26.4 points, or 0.4%, to 7,463.7.

BT Group plc (LON:BT.A) was the biggest blue chip faller, down 5.1% to 242.8p after the telecoms giant blamed costs related to pensions, business rates and investments as third-quarter profits were dragged lower.

Energy regulator Ofgem's investigation into independent gas and electricity supplier Ovo is weighing on two FTSE 100 energy giants, Centrica PLC (LON:CAN) and SSE plc (LON:SSE).

Ofgem is looking at whether Ovo has been giving inaccurate information to its customers over how much energy they've been using.

Investors in other energy companies have been looking over their shoulder in case the regulator turns their attention to them, with Centrica shares losing 1.7% to 128.7p and SSE down 1% to ?12.64.

One of the few moving higher this morning was Irish packaging company Smurfit Kappa Group PLC (LON:SKG).

The stock is up 1.4% to ?25.68 ahead of its final results next Wednesday, with City broker Numis claiming earlier in the week that trading conditions towards the end of its year had been "favourable".

12.45pm: US stocks to open lower ahead of jobs data

The trials and tribulations of the FTSE 100 this week have been more-or-less echoed by the stock markets over in New York.

That looks set to continue on Friday, with US all the major US indices seen lower at the open ahead of the non-farm data due later on in the session.

The Dow Jones is expected to fall 230 points to 25,954.1 once trading gets underway on Wall Street; the broader S&P 500 is seen 16.9 points in the red at 2,804.0; while the Nasdaq Composite is called 28.1 points down 6,869.3.

"Looking to this afternoon and the Dow Jones is set to drop more than 200 points, a prospect that is no doubt informing the European losses.

"That would leave the Dow at a sub-26000 2 week low, with investors seemingly bothered by Wednesday's hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve.

"The Fed's tone mid-week makes the day's non-farm jobs report all the more interesting: the headline figure is set to rise from 148k to 181k, but with a slip in wage growth from 0.3% to 0.2% and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%."

12.25pm: 'Premier League rights auction could hurt BT further'

Shares in BT Group plc (LON:BT.A) are well off again this morning - down 5% to 243.1p - after the telecoms giant saw profits fall in the third quarter, although it did keep its full-year guidance unchanged.

Pressure on the shares may not ease for a little while either, warns Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Laith Khalaf, particularly with the Premier League TV rights auction on the horizon.

"It's not a pretty picture at BT at the moment, with profits falling in most of its divisions, though there's already a fair amount of pessimism baked into the share price.

"The triennial Premier League TV rights auction is upon us once again, and the eye-watering amounts of money paid for players reflects in part the gargantuan sums that BT and Sky plough into securing televised games for their sports channels.

"The fear is that Amazon and Facebook may throw their hats in the ring this time around, inflating the cost of rights beyond the ?5 billion Sky and BT forked out last time."

That would be bad news for shareholders and probably customers, but you wouldn't hear many Premier League clubs or players complaining...

12pm: Purplebricks in row with US broker

Purplebricks Group PLC (LON:PURP) has seen its stock fall this morning after a row erupted between the online estate agent and US broker Jefferies.

In a punchy 'sell' note, analysts at the US investment bank claimed Purplebricks' shares were worth just 95p - far below the 475p they were trading at the time.

They cited concerns over the number of homes that actually end up getting sold through the agent, and also questioned the group's revenue recognition and accounting policies.

Purplebricks hit back this morning though, saying that Jefferies' sales conversion figures were based on limited data and that its self-published 78% rate "more accurately reflects its sales performance".

As for the other concerns, the estate agent added that it "publicly refutes" the analysts' criticism of its revenue recognition and auditing policies.

Shares are down 5.6% to 427.9p shortly before midday.

11.20am: Amazon shares surge after record fourth quarter profits

Ecommerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) saw shares blast 6% higher after hours as it posted record fourth quarter profit, boosted by strong holiday sales, growth in the cloud business, and advertising sales in North America.

The numbers blew past analyst estimates, with revenue for the three months at US$50.5bn versus US$59.83bn estimates.

Net income was US$1.9bn, more than double from the same period last year and the highest figure yet for the firm.

This was boosted by a tax benefit of about $789mln under the new US tax laws.

Meanwhile, for the year as a whole, profit hit US$3bn compared to US$2.4bn in 2016 on group revenue  of US$177.9bn - a rise of 31% on last year.

11am: Apple boss denies rumours of sluggish iPhone X sales

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:APPL) posted a record quarterly profit that beat market forecasts as higher prices offset fewer iPhone sales.

Profits in the final three months of the year rose to US$20.1bn, up from US$17.8bn the same period a year ago and above analysts' estimates of US$19bn.

The results included sales of the iPhone X for the first time. The device, which starts at price of US$999, helped lift average selling prices despite a 1% decline in the overall number of iPhones sold in the period to 77.3mln.

Chief executive Tim Cook appeared to dismiss rumours of sluggish sales of the iPhone X by saying it has been in demand since its launch.

"iPhone X surpassed our expectations and has been our top selling iPhone every week since it shipped in November," Cook said.

Apple's holiday quarter in a nutshell: Not record iPhone unit sales, but look at the rise in average iPhone selling price. pic.twitter.com/RiVwHya934

- Jason Snell (@jsnell) February 1, 2018

10.10am: Britain's construction sector is still in recession, the latest PMI data shows.

The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI  fell to 50.2 in January from 52.2 in December, well below the consensus forecast of 52.0.

It means the sector came close to contracting for the first time since September  as uncertainty surrounding the future of Brexit  weighed on new orders.

Samuel tombs., at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:  "The construction sector's recession is extending into 2018.

"Although the PMI remained slightly above the 50-mark that in theory should separate expansion from contraction, all readings below 52 have signalled declining output in practice.

"Housebuilding was the weakest sub-component; the housing activity index fell below 50 for the first time since August 2016.  By contrast, the commercial and civil engineering balances both edged above 50. So the collapse of Carillion, which operates in the commercial and public sectors, can't explain why the PMI fell in January."

10am: FTSE seeing red

A slew of UK corporate updates failed to keep FTSE 100 in positive territory and the premier shares index is down around nine points at 7,481.

Mid-cap index FTSE 250 is also lower, down over 40 points at 20,144.

The big Footsie casualty was under the cosh telecoms giant BT (LON:BT.A), which tumbled over 5.3% to 242.30p.

The group said costs related to pensions, business rates and investments dragged profits lower in the third quarter but left its full year guidance unchanged.

Revenue for the quarter fell 3% - analysts had expected a gain.

AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) lost 1.58% to 4,809p  as revenues fell by 2% to US$22.46bn in the annual results.

Once currency fluctuations were factored in, profits were flat.

In smaller caps, Eurasia Mining  (LON:EUA) cheered as it revealed its application for a mining  permit for the Monchetundra project in Russia was progressing much quicker than expected.

Premier African Minerals Limited (LON:PREM) added 1.26% to 0.22p as it  found more high-grade intersections through it latest step-out drilling at the Zulu lithium deposit in Zimbabwe.

Over in the US, Amazon (LON:AMZN) was the standout story overnight, with  shares in the e-commerce titan soaring over 5.6% to US$1,469 after its fourth quarter results blasted past estimates and saw a record net profit.

There was more on crypto currency Bitcoin too, which is now at below the US$8,400 level.

"The wheels are coming off the bitcoin bandwagon," said Neil Wilson at etxcapital.

"The regulatory crunch appears closer than ever and sooner or later this market could be headed back down to earth. Selling pressure at the moment is intense as there has been nothing but bad news for bitcoin bulls of late."

Of key concern is the CFTC (commodity futures trading commission) investigation into Tether and the Bitfinex exchange.

"Claims of full dollar convertibility are under scrutiny. Given there are about 2bn tether coins in existence, there should be a $2bn account somewhere but Tether has yet to prove it or have accounts audited," said Wilson.

8.30am: Traders keep powder dry

Traders appeared to be keeping their powder dry ahead of US jobs numbers later as the FTSE 100 edged back three points to 7,487.45 on minimal volumes.

It has been an unusually busy Friday for corporate news with BT (LON:BT.A) and AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) weighing in with results and Provident Financial (LON:PFG) appointing a new CEO.

However, we are going to kick off with an stock upgrade which has seen Morgan Stanley coming to the rescue of beleaguered Capita Group (LON:CPI).

Its upgrade to 'equal weight' from 'underweight' helped boost the shares 4%, though much of the upward momentum will have come from 'bottom fishers'.

BT's quarterly results didn't play well in the City with the stock off 2.5% early on, while there was a muted response to a US$600-plus US tax windfall for AZ, which fell around 1%.

Outside the top 100, Britvic (LON:BVIC) was provided a bit of sparkle by a JP Morgan Cazenove, which upgraded to 'overwight' on the stock, which rose 3.4%.

Proactive news headlines:

Eurasia Mining plc (LON:EUA) says its application for a mining permit for the Monchetundra project in Russia is progressing much quicker than expected. Rosnedra has now approved a draft and has forwarded the relevant documents to the ministry for defence (MOD) and Federal Security Service (FSB) for their go-ahead. Big Pic last week. 

Premier African Minerals Limited (LON:PREM) has found more high-grade intersections through it latest step-out drilling at the Zulu lithium deposit in Zimbabwe. Two holes 250m east of the Main Zone intersected multiple pegmatites with average grades of 1.17% and 1.04% lithium oxide.

SDX Energy Inc (LON:SDX) told investors it has now spudded the KSS-2 development well at the Sebou permit in Morocco. It is the sixth well in a nine well campaign, and it is expected to take between 10 and 15 days to drill. The company expects, if the well is a success, that it will be tested and connected to the field infrastructure for production.

Gfinity Plc (LON:GFIN) has added another major esports franchise to the line-up for the third season of its Elite Series gaming tournament. Hashtag United - which was founded in 2016 by FIFA gamer and Youtube star Spencer Owen - has acquired its place on the roster for the event which is due to kick off next month.

Stobart Group Ltd (LON:STOB) told investors it had a new chief financial officer, Richard Laycock, with effect from yesterday (Feb 1). He joined the group a decade ago and became group finance director in October 2014.

BlueRock Diamonds PLC (LON:BRD) announced that, further to its announcement of 23 February 2017 relating to certain claims made by the AIM listed company's former CEO, Riaan Visser, the group has received notice that Visser, and certain companies controlled by him, intend to apply to place the company's operating subsidiary, Kareevlei Mining (Pty) Ltd in provisional liquidation.  The diamond mining company, which owns and operates the Kareevlei Diamond Mine in the Kimberley region of South Africa said, as previously noted, having taken legal advice it remains of the view that based on currently available information the claims are without merit. No material new information has been provided by Visser at this stage and, accordingly, the group intends to vigorously defend itself in this matter.

InnovaDerma PLC (LON:IDP) has confirmed that the total number of ordinary shares that its executive chairman, Haris Altaf Chaudhry has an interest in, including that of the persons closely associated with him, remains unchanged and is 5,805,220 ordinary shares, equating to approximately 40.38% of the company's entire issued share capital. The group said the announcement was bring made to correct an error in an announcement made on 16 November 2016.

Touchstone Exploration Inc. (LON:TXP) (TSX:TXP), the oil and gas exploration and production company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, announced that James Shipka, its chief operating officer will be presenting at the World Outlook Financial Conference on 2 February 2018 in Vancouver, British Columbia.

6.45am: Footsie called lower

FTSE 100 is called to open slightly lower on Friday after  a weak session in Asia overnight and as the non-farm payrolls come into view across the pond.

The UK's top tier index closed down around 43  points yesterday at 7,490 and is today seen starting around three points below that.  

Asian markets took the cue from a softer session on Wall Street, despite the onslaught of earnings,  where the S &P 500 and Nasdaq both closed in then red. The Dow Jones finished just 37 higher, a weak gain compared to recent performance.

Tech companies dragged down Asian shares. The Nikkei 225 in Japan shed 215 points while the Shanghai Composite Index is down almost 20 points at 3,427.

In currency markets yesterday, the Euro and US dollar were under pressure as bond yields rose.

In the US not even a relatively hawkish Fed statement along with economic data that continues to point to rising inflationary pressure was enough to support the greenback, points out Michael Hewson at CMC Markets.

It comes as today's closely watched monthly jobs report is likely to reassert the case for a rate rise.

Economists expect the report to show that employers added 180,000 jobs in January, a decent recovery from the 148,000 seen a month earlier.

"Anything above 200,000 should give the dollar a boost, even if temporary, as it would suggest a more aggressive path of monetary tightening from the Fed than currently priced in. By contrast, anything below 160,000 looks likely to send the greenback back on its downward path," suggests David Morrison, market strategist at gkfx.com.

"On Wednesday the ADP report posted a better-than-expected jobs number. However, this has proved to be an unreliable indicator when it comes to forecasting Non-Farm Payrolls themselves," he notes.

The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1% while average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

Back to the UK and on the corporate front, the stars of the show are likely to be  BT Group plc (LON:BT.A) and AstraZeneca  PLC (LON:AZN) , which are posting quarterly earnings.

Telecoms giant BT is expected to report third quarter underlying earnings (EBITDA) fell to ?1.84bn from ?1.87bn a year earlier, as the company continues to tackle rising costs.

Meanwhile, drugmaker AstraZeneca may report flat fourth quarter sales, according to Deutsche Bank's estimates. 

Significant announcements due:

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.4202, up 0.40%
  • Gold: US$1,338.50an ounce, down 0.13%
  • Brent crude: US$66.11 a barrel, up 0.47%

City headlines:

  • Nomura's Q3 profits jump as domestic activity picks up - FT
  • Acacia buys $2 million in options to hedge against falls in gold price- FT
  • Payments group Adyen wins eBay contract as it lines up to float- FT
  • Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk's profit edges higher as chair departs- FT
  • HBO joins Netflix in shattering subscription records- FT
  • Unilever 2017 profits rise 9% despite 'challenging' conditions- FT
  • UK healthtech startup Medopad plans $120 million fund raise in China deal- Daily Telegraph
  • Amazon trounces Apple and Google: Online shopping titan earned more than ?42 billion in last quarter - Daily Mail
  • Sainsbury's buys Nectar for ?60 million: Loyalty card firm boasts vast database of shoppers and their habits - Daily Mail
  • Dominic Chappell handed ?10 million bill by watchdog over BHS pension deficit - Independent
  • Glencore expects copper and cobalt output to shine in 2018 - City AM
  • De La Rue rises as the firm distances itself from its paper business - City AM

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