FTSE 100 strengthens following wishy-washy US jobs data

By Jamie Ashcroft / May 04, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

  • FTSE 100 index gains 65 points

  • The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% for the first time since 2000 as non-farm payrolls grew by 164,000 in April.

  • Pearson tops the leader-board after it signals a return to growth

UK equities finished the week on a high note, adding to meagre gains after an underwhelming US jobs report.

The FTSE 100 closed at 7,567, up 65 points, with educational publisher Pearson plc (LON:PSON) leading the way after well-received first quarter results.

"Pearson's traded at the highest level since September 2016, as investors gained in confidence in that the recovery at the educational publishing group is firmly on track. Pearson reported a 1% rise in underlying revenue for its first quarter in the latest sign that the restructuring and turnaround effort are finally paying off," noted Fiona Cincotta at City Index.

The biggest riser on the day was Anglo African Agriculture PLC (LON:AAAP), which rose 45% to 0.4p after it said it knew of no reason for the recent share price fall.

3:00pm: FTSE 100 strengthens ahead of Bank Holiday weekend

The FTSE 100 continued higher after the market and economists took time to digest worse than expected US employment numbers.

Changing hands at 7,549 the London index was up 46 points or 0.62%.

In New York, equity benchmarks recouped some of the initial losses.

The Dow Jones was down 53 point or 0.22% at 23,876, while the S&P 500 was only slightly lower and the Nasdaq was in positive territory.

James Knightley, economist at ING, pointed out that upward data revisions to the two preceding months mean the actual level of job creation is closer to expectations, and, he suggested that the result may not impact rate raising plans.

"It isn't a particularly exciting report and certainly shouldn't alter market expectations for monetary policy in any meaningful way, but it just feels a bit soft given the state of the economy," Knightley said.

"Other surveys paint a stronger picture and we still believe that the wage story will turn higher and be the catalyst for the Fed to take a more aggressive stance on the inflation threat."

2:15pm: FTSE 100 trades higher as UK investors shrug off US jobs blow

The FTSE 100 looks set to make an upbeat end to the week, shrugging off the imminent sell off in New York.

At 7,534 the London index was up 33 points or 0.44%.

America's high profile employment statistics came in below expectations for the month of April.

The Dow Jones is expected to open around 80 points lower, futures pointed at 23,930, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also seen in negative territory.

"Not a solid number at all - no matter how you look at it," said Naeem Aslam, analyst at Think Markets.

"The average hourly number has dampened the bulls case for the dollar index and investors have also reacted adversely to the headline number (non -farm employment change). The reaction was very predictive in the gold market because of the lower move in the dollar index. "

"The wage number participation wasn't impressive at all for us and we have not seen people coming back in the job market and the reason that this number is not going up is because of demographic and Trump polices are not being effective."

1:35pm: US-non farm payroll job data misses expectations

Non-farm payroll stats for April showed that 164,000 new jobs were created in the United States last month, which was someway short of the forecast for 193,000.

The unemployment rate for the month was reported at 3.9% compared to expectations for 4%.

Re: US jobs report. Disappointing headline #NFP and a miss on earnings and wage revisions lower, outweighs positive revision to previous #NFP report + fall in unemployment

- David Madden (@dmadden_CMC) May 4, 2018

1:00pm: FTSE 100 near recent highs, but will US jobs spoil pre-bank holiday party?

London's FTSE 100 is poised tantalisingly close to its highest level for three months, potentially marking a positive end to the week.

Changing hands at 7,526 the index was up 25 points or 0.34%.

Friday morning's bullishness was helped by results from BA owner IAG, and a few others positive movers, though it may yet be undone by macro matters - as the US April employment stats are released.

"Turning to this afternoon and the Dow Jones is keeping its cards close to its chest of the non-farm jobs report," said Connor Campbell, analyst at Spreadex.

"While the unemployment rate is set to drop to 4.0%, with the headline non-farm figure forecast to jump from 103k to 190k, wage growth is expected to struggle, slipping back to 0.2% from April's 0.3%.

"That latter number might take the edge off the dollar given stagnant wages are a key concern of the Fed, something that might help alleviate the Dow's recent ailments."

12:30pm: FTSE 100 positive as market awaits US job numbers

At lunch, the FTSE 100 remained on the front foot, up 35 points or 0.47%.

Ahead of America's non-farm payroll employment statistics Wall Street futures pointed lower. The Dow Jones futures were down 40 points, at 23,870, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both also indicated lower.

It essentially all boils down to the dollar, inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

These issues have now dogged trading for around three months, so says Ken Odeluga, City Index market analyst.

"Investors may need more evidence of strengthening sentiment than US markets erasing much of their losses towards Thursday's close, though with indices largely flat as we head into the middle of the year after what's shaping up to be the biggest weekly fall for global shares, participants will be alert to any sign of a turn," he said in a note.

The analyst added: "Markets have however been prone to the same U.S. yield and greenback-related fears that have stoked turbulence for global shares, so the afternoon's U.S. monthly employment data will be critically important."

10:30am: BoE May rate raise is a long shot - expert

The Bank of England is less likely to raise interest rates this month, according to EY economic advisor Howard Archer.

"Recent events have made an interest rate hike next Thursday seem progressively less likely - to the extent that it now looks a very long shot," he said in a note.

"In contrast, it had looked highly probable following the last MPC meeting in late-March that the Bank of England would lift interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% at the May meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted for an interest rate hike at the March meeting."

Archer added: "The interest rate outlook has changed significantly as a consequence of the UK economy slowing more than expected in the first quarter of 2018. 

"GDP growth of just 0.1% q/q was the weakest performance since the fourth quarter of 2012 and below even the most pessimistic of forecasts."

10:00am: FTSE 100 stays on front foot ahead US employment stats

The FTSE 100 was back on the front foot through Friday morning, up 31 points or 0.41% to 7,533.

Markets are relatively quiet this morning, ahead of high profile US employment statistics this afternoon.

In London, the highlights came in the form of corporate updates and results.

BA owner IAG remained the standout blue-chip stock, with the share rising 30p or 4.9% to trade at 672.2p.

Keeping eyes to the sky, easyJet Plc (LON:EZJ) shares were up 1.5% to 1,637p as the airline carried more passengers in April, despite cancellations caused by French industrial action and adverse weather conditions.

HSBC, meanwhile, dropped 3% to 699.57p following a surprise drop in first-quarter profit due to higher operating expenses but sweetened the bad news with plans for a new US$2bn ( ?1.47bn) share buyback.

In the quarter ended March 3, the global bank's pre-tax profit fell by 4% to US$4.76bn, down from US$4.96bn a year earlier, below the US$5.76bn consensus estimate compiled by the firm.

8.45am:  Results digested as FTSE rallies

The Footsie pushed higher in early trading after US stocks managed to edge higher overnight showing no nerves ahead of the latest US jobs data due on Friday, with International Airlines Group PLC (LON:IAG) the top gainer in London after solid results.

Around 8.45am, the FTSE 100 index was nearly 28 points higher at 7,531, recouping a chunk of Thursday's 40 point decline.

IAG shares soared nearly 5% higher to 671p as a big currency gained boosted first-quarter profits at the British Airways owner despite higher fuel costs.

Revenues at the multi-airline group that also includes Aer Lingus, Iberia and Vueling rose 2.1% to ?,?5bn with passenger revenues 3.4% better.

Operating profits though were aided by a ?,?58mln favourable currency shift, which raised the total for the three months to March to ?,?280mln (?,?160mln).

Educational publisher Pearson plc (LON:PSON) was also an early blue-chip gainer, up almost 35 at 854.6p following a reassuring trading update.

Pearson said it is on course to meet its expectations for the year as it reported a 1% rise in underlying revenue for its first quarter helped by growth in North America and its Core business.

HSBC numbers disappoint

But the main FTSE 100 casualty was global banking giant HSBC Holdings PLC (LON:HSBA) which shed 2.4% at 704.1p after reported a surprise drop in first-quarter profit due to higher operating expenses but sweetened the bad news with plans for a new US$2bn ( ?1.47bn) share buyback.

In the quarter ended March 3, HSBC's pre-tax profit fell by 4% to US$4.76bn, down from US$4.96bn a year earlier, below the US$5.76bn consensus estimate compiled by the firm.

Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at interactive investor, commented: "Expectations are always high for this banking behemoth and any disappointment tends to be pounced upon, as evidenced by the initial share price reaction.

"Even so, over the last year the shares have added 12%, as compared to a 3.7% jump for the wider FTSE100, and over two years the 62% rise is reflective of a bank whose fortunes have largely recovered."

"With more pronounced growth elsewhere in the sector, however, the market consensus of the shares as a hold will remain difficult to nudge higher."

Proactive news headlines:

ReNeuron Group Plc's (LON:RENE) head of research will present exciting early-stage data on the potential use of cell-derived exomes in the treatment of cancer. Exosomes are nanoparticles secreted from many different types of cells and play a key role in cell-to-cell signalling.

 DP Poland Plc (LON:DPP), the franchise holder for Domino's pizzas in the central European country, saw continued double-digit like-for-like sales growth and improving margins at the store level in the first quarter of 2018.

Internet domains firm Minds + Machines Group Limited (LON:MMX) has agreed a deal to acquire ICM Registry LLC, a Florida based owner of four high value, niche top level domains. Separately, Minds + Machines Group released its results statement for the twelve months ended December 31, in which it confirmed its maiden year of profitability.

FairFX Group Plc (LON:FFX) says it has successfully migrated its international payments business onto the innovative propriety platform developed by City Forex within ten weeks of the acquisition of the business.

Metminco Limited (LON:MNC) (ASX:MNC) said that Lanstead Capital is no longer considered to be a significant shareholder of the company with its holding reduced to 1.51% of the issued share capital, down from 7.03% following the group's recent placing.

African Battery Metals PLC (LON:ABM), the AIM quoted African focused exploration company, announces the appointment of SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP as the company's nominated adviser and sole broker with immediate effect.

Active Energy Group PLC (LON:AEG), the international biomass based renewable energy and forestry management business, announced that a holder of convertible loan notes issued by the company on 14 March 2017 has elected to convert a total of 425,000 notes into 11,565,537 new ordinary shares in the company.

accesso Technology Group PLC (LON:ACSO) said yesterday that it has agreed to pay an earn-out consideration of round ?7.2mln in respect of its 30 March 2017 acquisition of Ingresso Group Limited.

6.40am: Footsie bounce back expected

The FTSE 100 index is expected to rally on Friday, recovering from Thursday afternoon's wobble after US stocks managed to edge higher overnight, although Asian markets were still weak today reflecting nervousness ahead of the latest US jobs data.

Spread betting firm IG expects the FTSE 100 index to open around 41 points higher at 7,543, recouping all of Thursday's 40 point decline.

Overnight on Wall Street, having fallen back sharply in morning trading, the Dow Jones Industrials managed to rally to close 5 points higher at 23,930 as bond yields retreated after some strong US trade and factory orders data.

But Asian markets were cautious today ahead of the more important US jobs data on Friday and as investors also kept an eye on US/China trade talks progress.

On currency markets, the pound was lower against the euro as traders assessed the implications of a mixed night for both the ruling Conservatives and the opposition Labour party in UK local council elections.

There also some worry after economic think-tank the NIESR cut its 2018 UK growth forecast back to 1.4%, down from a 1.8% estimate in February following weaker than expected first-quarter GDP numbers last week.

Jobs recovery

But sterling edged higher against the US dollar ahead of the April US non-farm payrolls report, which comes in the wake of rather ambivalent monetary policy comments from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

US non-farm payrolls disappointed in March, with an increase of just 103,000 against forecasts for 193,000 additions, so analysts will be hoping for a better number in April.

David Morrison, senior market strategist at GKfx.com predicts the April non-farms to show gains of around 190,000 and noted that that the unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0% from 4.1% - its lowest level in over 17 years - although once again average hourly earnings will likely be the key number.

Morrison said hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month (2.6% year-on-year), down from 0.3% (2.7%) in March.

He added; "If we see this tick up again as it did in early February it will provide more evidence that inflation is picking up, giving the Fed an excuse to accelerate its proposed pace of monetary tightening."

End of the banks

On the corporate front, HSBC Holdings PLC (LON:HSBA) will wrap up a busy two weeks of first quarter results from the UK's major lenders on Friday.

Like its sector peer Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN), which issued its Q1 update on Wednesday, HSBC is seen delivering a strong quarter on the back of growth in Hong Kong and Asia.

In a preview note, Morgan Stanley analysts said: "Loan growth in Hong Kong is running at a fairly strong pace and is broad-based across segments, driven by a stable Chinese economy."

HSBC's total income is expected to rise to US$13.9bn from US$12.8bn a year earlier, according to the US investment bank, with adjusted pre-tax profit forecast to climb to US$6.1bn from US$5.9bn.

Expansion eyed at IAG

Away from the banks, International Airlines Group (LON:IAG), already the owner of British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia, and Vueling, has been expanding further in recent months, so any comment on deals will be eyed in its first quarter results on Friday.

In January, IAG confirmed it the purchase of insolvent Austrian carrier Niki for a total of ?,?36.5mln, with the airline is one of the best assets to be sold out of the collapse of Air Berlin toward the end of 2017.

Meanwhile in April, IAG announced that it had acquired a 4.61% stake in Norwegian Air Shuttle and is considering buying the whole group.

The FTSE 100-listed firm raised its annual profit target for 2018-2022 back in November last year and said its aims to reach underlying earnings before restructuring costs (EBITDAR) of ?,?6.5bn per year on average for the period, compared to ?,?5.3bn per year on average for 2016-2020.

Significant events expected on Friday May 4:

Interims: HSBC PLC (Q1), (LON:HSBA), International Airlines Group PLC (Q1) (LON:IAG), Intercontinental Hotels PLC (LON:IHG), Numis Corporation PLC (LON:NUM)

Traffic figures: easyJet PLC (LON:EZJ)

Economic data: US non-farm payrolls

Around the markets:

  • Sterling: US$1.3579, up 0.1%
  • Gold: US$1,310.70 an ounce, unchanged
  • Brent crude: US$68.37 a barrel, down 0.1%

City Headlines:

  • Vodafone set to clinch deal for Liberty's European assets - The Times
  • BT Group set to reveal plans for thousands of job cuts: - Financial Times
  • Former Tesco chief Philip Clarke was a bully and corporate vandal, says colleague - The Times
  • Intercontinental Hotels to open more than 2,200 luxury rooms across the U.K. to woo Chinese and Americans - Daily Mail
  • Ophir Energy splashes out US$205mln on South East Asia oil fields - Daily Telegraph
  • Bus and train operator Go-Ahead drops as fears grow over its ability to cover its dividends - Daily Mail
  • Twitter urges all users to change passwords after discovering bug exposing them - Daily Telegraph
  • Tesla loses US$2bn in market value after Elon Musk refuses to answer 'dry' questions on finances - The Independent
  • Amazon HQ rejection acts as wake-up call - The Times
  • Strong Q1 gives CBS confidence in full year outlook - Financial Times
  • KKR seeks Trump tax boost through restructuring - Financial Times
  • Virgin Media to close Swansea call centre with loss of 800 jobs - The Independent
  • Vauxhall under criminal investigation over hundreds of Zafiras that burst into flames - The Independent
  • TSB chaos 'to last for months' - The Times
  • Punch Taverns owner trumpets new pub takeover - The Times
  • Volkswagen boss says priority is open corporate culture - Financial Times
  • SocGen shakes up leadership team after deputy CEO's exit - Financial Times
  • EDF Energy wades further offshore with major wind farm deal: - Daily Telegraph
  • Vivo Energy closes biggest Africa-focused IPO in a decade - Financial Times

Recent News

Gold stocks up on rise in metals and equities

October 14, 2024 / www.canadianminingreport.com

Gold stocks decline on flat metal and mixed equities

October 07, 2024 / www.canadianminingreport.com

Copper price expected to range from flat to slight gain in 2025

October 07, 2024 / www.canadianminingreport.com

China's gold holdings to central bank reserves still low

September 30, 2024 / www.canadianminingreport.com
See all >
Share to Youtube Share to Facebook Facebook Share to Linkedin Share to Twitter Twitter Share to Tiktok