Gold ends marginally higher ahead of kickoff of Fed policy gathering

By Mark DeCambre / July 29, 2019 / www.marketwatch.com / Article Link

Gold futures settled slightly higher Monday as a key midweek policy decision by the Federal Reserve loomed.

August gold on Comex GCQ19, +0.22% added $1.10, or 0.1%, to end $1,420.40 an ounce, after the metal shed 0.5% last week based on the settlement for the most-active. It was the metal's first weekly loss in the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, September silver SIU19, +0.06% gained 4.3 cents, or 0.3%, to finish at $16.440 an ounce. Silver has been on a tear, registering a weekly gain of 1.2%, which follows a 6.3% weekly rise the week before.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day policy gathering on Wednesday, even as recent data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a healthy annualized pace of 2.1% in the second-quarter, higher than the 1.9% pace forecast from MarketWatch polled economists.

Read: 5 things to watch from this week's crucial Fed meeting

Commodity experts will look to the Fed's communications after its policy decision to help determine how assets, including gold, will trade. Policy makers are aiming to dull the impact of a trade clashes between the U.S. and China and signs of anemic growth in other parts of the globe.

The yellow metal has benefited from hope that the FOMC will reduce benchmark borrowing costs and signal a willingness to do what it takes to sustain U.S. economic expansion in a record-setting 11th year of expansion.

Lower rates and uncertainty about economic health has been a key ingredient for higher prices for precious commodities.

Some doubts about a China-U.S. resolution on trade also has factored into gold buying. U.S.-China trade talks are set to resume, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer both arriving in Shanghai, marking the first formal tariff talks since May when President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Osaka, Japan.

"From a technical point of view, the main trend remains positive for both precious metals; the silver rally, which started later than that of gold could go a lot further if the Fed confirms the dovish view expected by the market," wrote Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at broker ActivTrades.

"A first positive signal for gold would be a recovery to the key area $1,430, while the following resistance area is placed at $1,450, the peak reached last week. A decline below $1,400 would add pressure on bullion, even if the positive mode will be switched off only by a stronger decline to below $1,360, he wrote.

Elsewhere on Comex, September copper HGU19, +0.13% added 3.25 cents, or 1.2%, to finish at $2.7175 a pound, after closing Friday trade with a weekly loss of 2.5%. October platinum PLV19, -0.06% advanced $14.10, or 1.6%, to end at $881.90 an ounce, following a weekly advance of 1.8%. September palladium PAU19, -0.24% jumped $22.80, 1.5%, higher to settle at $1,553.40 an ounce. The commodity logged a weekly climb of 1.5% on Friday.

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