Gold Explorer Forecasts Massive Returns from Historic South Dakota Project
Dakota Gold Corp. (DC:NYSE American) announced the completion of its S-K 1300 Initial Assessment Technical Report with an economic analysis for its Richmond Hill gold project in the historic Homestake District of South Dakota's Black Hills. Read why one analyst calls the headline numbers from the report "impressive."
Dakota Gold Corp. (DC:NYSE American) announced the completion of its S-K 1300 Initial Assessment Technical Report that includes an economic analysis for its Richmond Hill oxide heap leach gold project in the historic Homestake District of South Dakota's Black Hills.
Also called the S-K 1300 Initial Assessment With Cashflow, or IACF, the report was developed based on a production plan that includes both Measured and Indicated resources and a plan that incorporates Measured, Indicated, and Inferred resources. The IACF underscores the project's viability as a profitable, uncomplicated, low-capital, open-pit, gold heap leach operation at Richmond Hill, the company said.
"Delivering this robust IACF following our heap leach resource announcement four months ago in February, speaks to the quality of our Project and our team's capabilities," said Dr. Robert Quartermain, co-chair, director, and chief executive officer of Dakota. "This is a very positive outcome for Dakota Gold and its shareholders, and it forms the platform from which we can grow and expand our mining and exploration activities in the Homestake District. We now expect to advance through Feasibility and into production as soon as 2029, based on our current work and project understanding firmly placing Dakota Gold as having one of the largest development gold assets in the U.S."
Key Points from the IACF:
Richmond Hill stands as one of the premier development-stage oxide gold resources in the United States, Dakota said. The M&I plan reveals 168.3 million tonnes at 0.566 grams per tonne gold (g/t Au), yielding a total of 2.6 million ounces (Moz) over a 17-year mine life. The MI&I plan projects 273.7 million tonnes at 0.530 g/t Au, totaling 3.9 Moz over a 28-year mine life.With a base gold price of US$2,350 per ounce, the project's post-tax NPV5% reaches US$1.6 billion with an IRR of 55% under the M&I plan, and US$2.1 billion with a 59% IRR for the MI&I plan. At a recent gold price of US$3,350, the NPV5% increases to US$2.9 billion with a 99% IRR and US$3.7 billion with a 107% IRR, respectively.The initial capital requirement is US$384 million, which includes a US$53 million contingency, while the average All-in Sustaining Costs ("AISC") are estimated at US$1,047 for the M&I plan and US$1,050 for the MI&I plan.Following the promising IACF, efforts have begun on a Feasibility Study expected to be completed by early 2027, with construction starting in 2028 and production anticipated by 2029.A drilling campaign covering 24,384 meters is in progress, aiming to delineate higher-grade zones for early mining and to upgrade resources from inferred to measured and indicated categories."Based on my experience in developing and operating gold mines worldwide, Richmond Hill is an exciting project," said President and Chief Operating Officer Jack Henris. "It's straightforward and benefits from extensive data, enabling us to construct a solid economic and environmental plan, especially given its location in an established mining community. As a local South Dakotan residing in the same county as our headquarters and project, I am thrilled to see Richmond Hill develop in our community."
Henris also said the IACF M&I plan has outlined US$400 million in state severance taxes over the mine's life for South Dakota and could create hundreds of high-paying jobs, significantly benefiting our local and state economy.
The company's management hosted a webcast on Tuesday to review the details of the IACF. A replay can be found here.
Substantial Near-Surface Heap Leachable Resource
Richmond Hill hosts a substantial near-surface heap leachable resource, announced previously in February. The S-K 1300 Initial Assessment Report detailed a resource of 3.65 Moz of gold and 38.1 Moz of silver in measured and indicated mineral resources, with an additional inferred resource of 2.61 Moz of gold and 22.8 Moz of silver. This resource is supported by a historical database comprising 56,734 gold assays from 902 drill holes totaling 390,447 meters, and an additional 30,743 gold assays from 146 drill holes totaling 45,540 meters drilled by Dakota Gold since 2022 to expand the resource.
The IACF analysis was spearheaded by M3 Engineering and Technology Corporation and RESPEC, two independent engineering firms with the expertise to carry the project from feasibility to production by as early as 2029. Alongside this, the company is conducting baseline environmental studies essential for future permitting processes.
The Richmond Hill project is poised to emulate the operational model of the nearby Wharf Mine, managed by Coeur Mining, which realized roughly US$95 million in free cash flow in 2024 by producing about 98,000 ounces of gold. Located primarily on land that has been previously mined and is privately owned, Richmond Hill is expected to benefit from streamlined permitting and development processes, leading efficiently to production. Additionally, a non-binding financial proposal from Orion Mine Finance, a principal investor, announced on October 12, 2023, for up to US$300 million, is set to furnish Dakota Gold with the financial means necessary for establishing a commercial gold operation.
'Headline Numbers Are Impressive'
In June, the company's target price was boosted 45% by Canaccord Genuity as a result of updating its model on the U.S. gold explorer. Canaccord Analyst Peter Bell, in a July 8 updated research note, maintained the firm's Speculative Buy rating on the stock with a US$12 per share price target.
"The headline numbers are impressive," Bell wrote of the IACF.
"We found the IACF MI&I plan to be in line with our estimates, with key differences being a lower throughput, lower strip ratio, higher gold grades and recoveries, and slightly higher unit costs," wrote Bell. "With a 24,384-meter drill program underway to target higher-grade areas for initial mining, we believe there is opportunity for the feasibility study to grow the size of the resource, which could aid in further improving the overall economics of the
project."
Bell noted that work has already commenced on the feasibility study, which is slated for completion in early 2027, with construction beginning in 2028 and targeted gold production by 2029.
Overall, "Richmond Hill is an important component of Dakota Gold's exploration strategy for the Homestake District," Bell has written.
According to Andrew Mikitchook, BMO Capital Markets analyst, 2025 is a transformational year for Dakota Gold as it "moves to become a developer, establishing a pathway to production."
The Catalyst: Gold Going Higher and Higher?
The journey for gold prices to escalate from US$2,000 to US$3,000 per ounce spanned nearly two years. However, the ascent from US$3,000 to US$4,000 might occur in a significantly shorter timeframe, potentially within the next year, according to some market experts, reported Juan Carlos Arancibia for Investor's Business Daily on Monday.
Analysts from prominent institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, along with other financial analysts on Wall Street, predict that gold could hit the US$4,000 mark by mid-2026. This milestone is expected just 15 months following the metal's rise to US$3,000 in March. Gold initially surpassed the US$2,000 threshold in April 2023, as per FactSet data.
In a recent analysis, Natasha Kaneva, who leads global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, mentioned that the likelihood of a recession and global trade uncertainties could make the US$4,000 target increasingly feasible, Arancibia reported.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Dakota Gold Corp. (DC:NYSEAmerican)
*Share Structureas of 6/19/2025Source: Dakota Gold Corp."We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly," Kaneva stated. JPMorgan Research anticipates that gold will average US$3,675 per ounce in this year's fourth quarter, with expectations to reach US$4,000 by the third quarter of 2026, a forecast adjustment from earlier predictions which did not foresee gold reaching US$4,000 next year.
As of Monday, Comex gold for July delivery concluded at US$3,332.20 an ounce, marking a 26.7% increase since the start of the year, based on Dow Jones Market Data.
Ownership and Share Structure
According to Refinitiv, nine insiders own 12.83% of Dakota Gold. Of these, the Top 2 are Co-Chair, Director and CEO Robert Quartermain with 6.79% and Director Gerald Aberle with 3.86%.
Numerous institutions hold 45.32% of Dakota in aggregate. The Top 3 are Orion Resource Partners (USA) LP with 8.68%, BlackRock Institutional Trust Co. N.A. with 3.62%, and The Vanguard Group Inc. with 3.51%. The rest is in retail.
Dakota Gold has 111.89 million outstanding shares, and its market cap is US$452.03 million. Its 52-week range is US$1.84-4.11 per share.
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Important Disclosures:
Dakota Gold Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Dakota Gold Corp.Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.For additional disclosures, please click here.