Gold Price Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels, Support / Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
TREND ANALYSIS
The gold price trend off the February $1350 high to the recent low of $1269 appears corrective which implies that the Gold price should at least resolve in a trend back to $1350. The downtrend so far has retraced 44% of the rally to $1350 which suggests that downside is limited to 50% at $1259 that is confirmed by recently constructed support in the $1270 region. So it appears the Gold price is forming a bottom right now in preparation for a breakout higher above the down trendline currently at $1290 that compares against the last close of $1286.
MACD - The MACD is showing early signs that the Gold price has bottomed to be confirmed on putting in a higher low and high.
TREND CHANNELS - The gold price is trading towards the top of it's corrective trend channel that should soon resolve to the upside.
The longer-term Gold chart shows heavy over head resistance from $1250 to $1370 so it should not come as much surprise that Gold price is correcting and given that the correction is mild the Gold price should at least get another chance to bust through resistance.
RESISTANCE : Over head resistance between $1350 and $1370 that the Gold price is going to find tough to break through and likely will have several attempts at during the remainder of 2019.
SUPPORT is at $1200, $1230, and then a more distant $1165.
Overall trend analysis paints a picture of a market stuck in a trading range with the immediate correction likely to resolve in a break higher to target resistance of $1350. So to get a better gauge of the probability for the Gold breaking above resistance we need to take a look at a longer term chart.
Resistance is at $1350 to $1370. Then around $1500 and finally $1800 which is actually my long-term target for the Gold price pending a break of resistance which in December 2016 was at $1400.
Therefore once the Gold price is able to overcome resistance at $1350 to $1380 then it should be propelled towards $1500 to $1530. So the big question is will the Gold price finally breakout of resistance that it has remained stuck under for over 5 years!
TREND ANALYSIS -The Gold pricebottomed at $1046 in 2016 since which time entered into a trading range after failing to break through resistance at $1380. So the gold price is stuck in a trading range with the price action of the past 3 years implying a gradual convergence towards a breakout point with support at $1225 and resistance at $1350. Beyond which trend analysis is not clear when the gold price is likely to breakout AND in which direction.
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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