Gold Prices: LBMA Analysts See Dramatic Divergence In Precious Metals Forecasts
(Kitco News)- It could be a dramatic year for the precious metals marketas there is a significant divergence in price forecasts for 2018, according tothe London Bullion Market Association.
Tuesday, the LBMA released its forecast of 34 preciousmetals analysts, noting that there is a $390 trading range between the lowestend of the estimates and the highest prediction.
The average gold prices among LBMA contributors is $1,318 anounce, with the most bullish forecast coming from Rhona O’Connell at ThomsonReuters GFMS who sees gold prices peaking at $1,510 an ounce in 2018. At thesame time Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst, is the most bearish seeinggold prices pushing to a low of $1,120 an ounce.
“Opinions differ as to the level of US real interest rates,the likely impact of geopolitical factors and the pace of global economicgrowth. Our contributors are divided as to what will have the greater impact,”the LBMA said.
It’s not just the gold market; all the precious metals areseen trading in a wide range with $9 range in silver, a $518 range in platinumand a $750 range in palladium.
LBMA contributors see silver prices averaging the yeararound $17.81 an ounce. The highest forecast came from Matthew Turner atMacquarie Capital who sees a high at $23 an ounce. Dahdah is also the mostbearish on silver seeing a price hitting a low at $14 an ounce within the year.
Platinum prices are expected to average the year around $1,000an ounce. Eddie Nagao, from Sumitomo Corporation, was the most bullish seeing apeak price at $1.250 an ounce. Independent analyst Stevens Glyn with the mostbearish outlook seeing prices falling to $732 an ounce.
Finally, analysts see palladium averaging 2018 at $1,080 anounce. Ross Norman, from Sharps Pixley, was the most bullish as he expectsprices to peak at $1,500 an ounce; Dahdah was once again the biggest bear as hesees prices falling to $750 an ounce this year.
Silver To Outshine the Precious Metals In 2018
According to the forecasts, the analysts predict that silverhas the most to gain in 2018. The LBMA said the silver prices in the first halfof the month came in at $17.13 an ounce, and a push towards the average pricewould represent a gain of 4%.
“We expect the world economy to have another good year,sufficient for silver to re-rate against gold in line with its historicalrelationship to the strong performance from other industrial metals. Investorswon’t come flooding back, but neither will they disappear in such numbersagain,” said Turner in his forecast.
So far this year, most analysts have described the silvermarket as lackluster as the gold/silver ratio remains near multi-year highs.Kitco.com shows the gold-silver ratio currently trading at 78 points.
By Neils ChristensenFor Kitco News
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