HSBC to wrap up a busy two weeks of first quarter results from the major UK banks

By Jon Hopkins / May 03, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

HSBC Holdings PLC (LON:HSBA) will wrap up a busy two weeks of first quarter results from the UK's major lenders on Friday.

Like its sector peer Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN), which issued its Q1 update on Wednesday, HSBC is seen delivering a strong quarter on the back of growth in Hong Kong and Asia.

In a preview note, Morgan Stanley analysts said: "Loan growth in Hong Kong is running at a fairly strong pace and is broad-based across segments, driven by a stable Chinese economy."

"We expect HSBC to report Hong Kong loans up +11% year-on-year which together with expanding margins, drives our expectations for retail banking and wealth management (RBWM) net interest income growth of +17% year-on-year in Hong Kong."

In the UK, Morgan Stanley anticipates an 8% increase in RBWM net interest income, helped by a stronger pound and volume growth.

Group net interest income is projected to edged up to US$7.5bn from US$6.7bn.

Total income is expected to rise to US$13.9bn from US$12.8bn a year earlier and adjusted pre-tax profit is forecast to climb to US$6.1bn from US$5.9bn.

Morgan Stanley sees the CET 1 ratio rising by 20 basis points to 14.75.

"We expect outlook will focus on growth opportunities in Asia, the impact of rising rates, and capital return," it said.

Expansion moves at IAG

Away from the banks, International Airlines Group (LON:IAG), already the owner of British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia, and Vueling, has been expanding further in recent months, so any comment on deals will be eyed in its first quarter results on Friday.

In January, IAG confirmed it the purchase of insolvent Austrian carrier Niki for a total of ?,?36.5mln, with the airline is one of the best assets to be sold out of the collapse of Air Berlin toward the end of 2017.

Meanwhile in April, IAG announced that it had acquired a 4.61% stake in Norwegian Air Shuttle and is considering buying the whole group.

The FTSE 100-listed firm raised its annual profit target for 2018-2022 back in November last year and said its aims to reach underlying earnings before restructuring costs (EBITDAR) of ?,?6.5bn per year on average for the period, compared to ?,?5.3bn per year on average for 2016-2020.

US jobs in focus after Fed ambivalence

Following the rather ambivalent monetary policy comments from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the latest US monthly jobs report will - as always - be eyed closely on Friday.

US non-farm payrolls disappointed in March, with an increase of just 103,000 against forecasts for 193,000 additions, so analysts will be hoping for a better number in April.

David Morrison, senior market strategist at GKfx.com said the April non-farms are expected to show gains of around 190,000, and noted that that the unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0% from 4.1% - its lowest level in over 17 years - although once again average hourly earnings will likely be the key number.

Morrison said hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month (2.6% year-on-year), down from 0.3% (2.7%) in March.

He added; "If we see this tick up again as it did in early February it will provide more evidence that inflation is picking up, giving the Fed an excuse to accelerate its proposed pace of monetary tightening."

Significant events expected on Friday May 4:

Interims: HSBC PLC (Q1), (LON:HSBA), International Airlines Group PLC (Q1) (LON:IAG), InterContinental Hotels PLC (LON:IHG), Numis Corporation PLC (LON:NUM)

Traffic figures: easyJet PLC (LON:EZJ)

Economic data: US non-farm payrolls

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