Nothing matters until it does.
Consider this: 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. GAAP earnings are down 50% over the last year with S&P 500 sales down 11%.
Despite that, the S&P 500 continues to hit all-time highs which begs the question, what if that 95% start having better quarters?
Does the S&P soar higher? What if the five stocks that have driven the rally pull back. Is that even possible with sugar daddy Jerome at the helm? We'll see.
One thing is crystal clear. When it comes to the overall indices, the easy money has been made.
That doesn't mean the overall indices don't go higher in the mid-term. It just means it'll come with a lot more volatility and the risk/reward proposition isn't what it was in March.
Heck, I'm the guy who has been telling subscribers since 2016 that the new gold bull market - and new all-time-high gold prices - would happen alongside rising overall indices, increased volatility, and a higher dollar.
Two of those have come to pass. The third - a higher dollar - is warming up.
U.S. dollar net shorts hit a nine-year high this month after seven straight weeks of increased short positions. I suspect we'll get to test the "dollar is dead" thesis soon.
Yes, the dollar eventually goes the way of all fiat currencies but it's not doing so just yet and, like with the overall indices, the easy money shorting the dollar has been made.
Which brings me to where we are in the gold bull cycle. In baseball parlance, we are in the bottom of the second inning.
Some easy money has been made but there is a lot of game left and the risk/reward proposition in the junior space is what I've called a junior resource speculator's paradise.
I'll give you a real-world example.
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For years I had subscribers asking whether anyone would ever really care about Midas Gold's nearly 7 million gold ounces? (there's a lot more but that's for another day.)
Every month, for years, I'd explain to subscribers they should use the weakness to initiate or add to their Midas position.
A position that was down some 60% for years is now up nearly 160% and it's all happened in the last month.
A new subscriber wrote in saying it was his first 300% gain (he got in at lower prices recently after I opened spots for new subscribers to join Junior Mining Monthly) and the easiest triple-digit gain he'd ever bagged.
Wait until people start using their calculator and modeling NPV with current prices. But I digress.
A 160% gain or even a 300% gain in the market we're entering won't be one to brag about. It'll be the norm if you know what you're doing.
This market is just getting going but the difference between those who turn triple-digit gains into 1000%+ gains - without giving them back - in this market is having the network and doing the diligence it takes to know what is going on (and why) as it's happening.
Here are some more facts.
For the past several years companies that had quality share structures, management, and assets were being given away.
The most brutal bear market any resource trader alive has ever seen was devastating to speculators and companies in the space.
Despite that, Junior Mining Trader - the trader service I manage that serves as a complement to Junior Mining Monthly's longer-term approach - was able to deliver.
In 2017, the closed portfolio was up 33%.
In 2018, the closed portfolio was up 30% at a time where most were losing their shirts.
In 2019, during the final capitulation phase, I was able to nearly break-even, closing down just under 2% but properly set up for the rebound in 2020.
Those are time-stamped trades, not fictional promotional stories, which is why for the first time in quite some time I'll be offering spots in Junior Mining Trader.
Like I did recently for Junior Mining Monthly, which led to the quick triple-digit gain of the happy subscriber who wrote in earlier this month. That won't be the last one.
I haven't promoted that service because the market simply wasn't there. All that has changed.
Companies have now raised the capital necessary to go test the properties that will yield the next great discovery cycle.
Most are drilling now with results expected in the coming weeks and months. Results that could be company-makers and usher in the next great profit cycle.
I call it the Paydirt Profit Cycle.
I'm careful and even hesitant when marketing either of the two services but I have to admit I'm as excited as I've ever been about this one because I believe the next few years will produce transformational results.
To your wealth,
Gerardo Del RealEditor, Junior Mining Monthly and Junior Mining Trader.
For the past decade, Gerardo Del Real has worked behind-the-scenes providing research, due diligence and advice to large institutional players, fund managers, newsletter writers and some of the most active high net worth investors in the resource space. Now, he is bringing his extensive experience to the public through Outsider Club, Junior Mining Monthly, and Junior Mining Trader. For more about Gerardo, check out his editor page.