J Sainsbury expected to report sluggish like-for-like sales growth for final quarter of 2017

By John Harrington / January 09, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

Morrisons has thrown down the gauntlet to supermarkets and we'll see on Wednesday whether J Sainsbury PLC picks it up.

Of course, Morrisons and Sainsbury's operate in different strands of the supermarket spectrum, plus the latter now includes Argos within the group, but even so, Morrisons' 2.8% year-on-year growth in like-for-like (LFL) sales (excluding fuel) in the 10 weeks to 7 January has set some kind of a benchmark, and one that Sainsbury's is unlikely to hit, according to Deutsche Bank (DB).

DB is tipping Sainsbury's will report a 0.4% gain in LFL sales from the year before in the fourth quarter of 2017, having revised this forecast down from its previous prediction of a 1.3% increase.

"At Sainsbury's, the increased share of clothing and general merchandise introduces more volatility to the LFL performance, and Kantar data for the clothing market suggests a slowdown in recent months, partially reflecting unseasonal weather," DB noted last week, as it lowered its Sainsbury target price by 13% to 260p from 300p.

The bank reckons the grocery side of the business will show LFL growth of 2%, while clothing sales are predicted to have grown by 5%; general merchandise sales are expected to be flat year-on-year.

On the subject of clothing, mid-cap fashion retailer Ted Baker PLC (LON:TED) weathered the retail storm better than many in 2017, and on Wednesday will reveal whether it has continued to outperform.

The company posted a 7.3% year-on-year rise in revenue for the 13 weeks to November 11 despite a challenging retail environment.

Revenue growth was driven by its online business, which accounts for 19.2% of total retail sales; e-commerce sales increased by 30.5%.

The company said it remained confident of hitting full-year expectations, though it added the caveat that this depended to some extent on Christmas trading.

In the house building sector, a trading update from Taylor Wimpey PLC follows hot on the heels of a typically solid update from sector leader Persimmon PLC.

Taylor Wimpey has previously said it had seen a strong performance in the second half of 2017, although the current order book is lower than last year and costs are expected to increase.

The firm said building costs are expected to rise between 3% and 4% this year due to higher wages and increasing inflation on the price of building materials.

In the exploration sector, Tullow Oil PLC's November trading update in November was fairly encouraging, with the group benefiting from the improved oil price.

Graham Spooner, an investment research analyst at The Share Centre, thinks this should be even more of a feature in Wednesday's trading update as average oil prices headed closer to US$60 a barrel during the final quarter.

He thinks investors will also look at the group's operational performance from their TEN and Jubilee fields, as better-than-expected performances from these fields in the prior two reporting periods led management to upgrade overall production guidance for the year from West African operations to between 85,000 to 89,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

However, he added, it may be premature to expect management to comment on plans to whittle down the debt mountain, although investors should still expect some assets to be written off despite rising prices.

Significant announcements expected?EUR<

Trading updates: J Sainsbury plc (LON:SBRY),Ted Baker PLC (LON:TED), Taylor Wimpey PLC (LON:TW.), Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW),  Marshalls PLC (LON:MSLH), Pagegroup PLC (LON:PAGE), Quiz PLC (LON:QUIZ)

Finals: Shoe Zone PLC (LON:SHOE)

Interims: Supergroup PLC (LON:SGP)

Economic data: UK trade data; UK industrial production; UK construction output; US wholesale trade

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