Kitco News Gold Survey: Dollar's Pain To Mean Gold's Gain
(Kitco News) - Traders and analysts who takepart in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for the recent weakness in theU.S. dollar to continue underpinning gold in the next week.
Wall Street
Bullish
Bearish 
Neutral VS
Main Street
Bullish Bearish Neutral Those who disagree suggest thegreenback’s slide may be due for a pause, which in turn could take away some ofthe shine from gold, at least for now. The yellow metal tends to move inverselyto the U.S. currency.
Gold prices on Friday hit theirhighest level in four months as the euro hit its most muscular level againstthe U.S. currency in three years.
Seventeen market professionalstook part in the Wall Street survey. Twelve, or 71%, called for gold to rise.There were four votes, or 24%, saying gold would fall, while one participant,or 6%, called for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 663 votes were cast inan online Main Street poll. A total of 404 voters, or 61%, looked for gold toclimb in the next week. Another 182, or 27%, said lower, while 77, or 12%, wereneutral.
For thetrading week now winding down, 55% of Wall Street voters and 62% of Main Streetvoters were bullish. Around midmorning, ComexFebruary gold was up by 0.5%for the week so far to $1,328.90 an ounce.
For the year 2017, Main Streetended up being right 31 of 50 times for a winning percentage of 62%.Wall Streetforecasters collectively were right 30 of 51 times for 59%. (There were twoweeks without a Main Street poll and one week without a Wall Street poll).
“We’re heading toward $1,350,”said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. “There’sweakness in the dollar and the [equity and oil] markets are looking a littletoppy.”
George Gero, managing directorwith RBC Wealth Management, also said higher, commenting that there is “enoughon every worriers’ plate to keep a bid” in gold.
“I am bullish for next week,”said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC. “We are seeingbig inflows into commodities in general. I think that most of these new longsare passive longs, which tend to stay in the markets longer.”
Sean Lusk, director of commercialhedging with Walsh Trading, also looks for more gains, particularly if gold cangain momentum above the $1,330 resistance level.
“I believe this push still haslegs to the upside,” he said. “Nobody wants to be short this thing. The dollaris getting whacked.”
However, others look for thedollar to stabilize, which could prompt a pullback in gold.
“Inflows into gold continued thepast week as evidenced by open interest, albeit the pace has slowed from theprior three weeks,” said Ken Morrison, editor of the newsletter Morrison on theMarkets. “Gold has met its near-term objective, filling the gap left behind onSept. 15 at $1,328. With the dollar finding support near the current area, Iexpect gold to pull back a bit, range trading the next week $1,310-$1,335. I'mmodestly bearish from the current level over the next week.”
Charlie Nedoss, senior marketstrategist with LaSalle Futures Group, also looks for gold to take its foot offof the accelerator, citing an expectation that the U.S dollar will make acorrective bounce after recent weakness.
“Gold is in fire right now andhas made impressive gains since the Dec. 12 low, but I think the market is duefor some consolidation,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at SaxoBank. “Gold needs to consolidate to rebuild investor interest.”
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
Follow @AllenSykora
asykora@kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.