| Posted: Jan 20, 2018 | JK: MIF Presentation: Dot-Com Bubble D?j? Vu for Resource Juniors? |
| Published: Jan 20, 2018 | MIF: MIF Presentation: Dot-Com Bubble D?j? Vu for Resource Juniors? |
On January 20, 2018 I gave a presentation at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver in which I address the d?j? vu feeling that this is January 2000 all over again when resource juniors were lagging, the general equity market was at a record and anything to do with dot-com was soaring. The fear back then was that the dot-com bubble would burst, the economy would plunge into a recession, and the resource sector would spend several more years in a bear market. In March 2000 that is exactly what happened and it was not until July 2003 when the China super cycle kicked in that the resource juniors launched into a bull market. Today the general equity markets are again at a record, the mania involves weed and crypto-blockchain, and the resource juniors, after a sharp turnaround in H1 of 2016 from the bear market that began in 2011, followed by a blip in Q1 of 2017, are not tracking the uptrend though metal prices did well in 2017. I argue that the situation is very different in January 2018 than in 2000, that the likely imminent collapse of the weed and blockchain bubbles would have no implications for the overall market and economy, and that, by the H2 of 2018 the resource sector will take off for both gold as an insecurity risk hedge and the other metals as a result of demand growth or supply disruptions. (The videos of the presentations done by the companies in my session and the interviews I did with them will be posted below when they become available.) | |