MODEST INCREASE IN THE GOLD PRICE BUT WIDE SPREADS
"Bulls to the left of me, bears to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with you..." There's no real consensus among analysts about the direction and price of gold in this year's survey. While the average of all forecasts suggest a modest 1.8% gain for gold, this figure is somewhat overshadowed by a $325 trading range. While gold is apparently causing even the professionals to scratch their heads, the picture is even less clear for the prospects of the prices for the other precious metals.
At first glance the headline averages do not appear particularly inspiring. However, the journey ahead to year end makes much more interesting reading. Trading spreads across all four metals - gold $325, silver $7.25, platinum $430, and (particularly) palladium $815 - highlight the fact that analysts disagree on what may happen to prices in 2019. Whilst markets have factored in some of the downside risks of Brexit and US-China trade wars, other factors such the level of US real interest rates, strength/weakness of the dollar, the likely impact of geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic growth continues to provide some uncertainty. Which analyst will be right? Make up your own mind by reading..."
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