(Updates with closing prices, adds column)By Peter HobsonLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Aluminium prices fell on Thursdayfrom the previous session's four-week high as worries over theeffect of a Chinese economic slowdown outweighed signs of tightsupply.On-warrant stocks of aluminium available to the market inLondon Metal Exchange-registered warehouses tumbled to 848,650tonnes from more than a million tonnes a week ago. The drawdowns helped to lift the LME's benchmark aluminiumcontract by 7 percent from a two-year low in earlyJanuary, but it closed down 1 percent at $1,890.50 a tonne.
Fears that demand for metal in top consumer China will fallare holding back metals prices, said Societe Generale analystRobin Bhar."I really don't see that changing without a breakthrough intrade talks (between China and the United States), a weakerdollar or Chinese stimulus measures," he said.
However, he predicted that prices would rise to$1,950-$2,000 a tonne by the end of March if there were noescalation in the U.S.-China trade conflict.
TRADE WAR: The United States and China are "miles and miles"from resolving trade issues but there is a fair chance the twocountries will get a deal, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Rosssaid ahead of talks in Washington next week.CHINA: China's economy can maintain sustainable rates ofgrowth despite global uncertainties, Vice President Wang Qishansaid. COLUMN: Global aluminium production growth brakes sharply in2018: Andy Home DOLLAR: The U.S. currency continued to recover towardsDecember's 18-month high. A stronger dollar makes metals moreexpensive for buyers with other currencies, pressuring prices.ZINC: Benchmark LME zinc ended up 0.8 percent at$2,640 a tonne after touching a seven-week high.
On-warrant zinc stocks in LME warehouses tumbled to 67,725tonnes, down from 117,075 tonnes at the start of January and thelowest since 2007. Exacerbating fears of low availability of metal is LME datashowing two entities between them hold most LME zinc warrants. Cash zinc still commands a premium over the three-monthcontract, suggesting nearby supplies are tight. But at $8.50 atonne, the premium is far from a recent high of $125. TIN: LME tin finished up 1.1 percent at $20,925 atonne after reaching a seven-month high.
Headline LME inventories fell to a record low of 975 tonnes,down from about 3,000 tonnes in mid-December and enough to coveronly one day of global demand, according to Commerzbankanalysts. One entity holds 50-79 percent of LME tin warrants and thepremium of cash tin over three-month metal has surged tonine-month highs above $100 this month.OTHER METALS: LME copper closed down 0.5 percent at$5,922 a tonne, lead gained 2.3 percent to $2,073 andnickel rose 0.6 percent to $11,770.<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Top Base and Precious Metals Analysis - GFMS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Additional reporting by Melanie Burton in MELBOURNE and TomDaly in BEIJINGEditing by Jon Boyle and Elaine Hardcastle)