As Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to fall apart, Vladimir Putin is relying on increasingly desperate ploys to regain some semblance of control.
Part of that effort has been a renewed focus on Russia's nuclear arsenal, which he frequently leans on to influence global diplomacy.
In a speech annexing parts of Ukraine that his army has already surrendered, Putin decried Western leaders as "satanists," pledged to use "all forces" to defend the "new territories," and said that the United States established a "precedent" for nuclear deployment when it bombed Japan at the end of WWII.
Now, to be clear, these threats do have to be taken somewhat seriously.
For one thing, the consequences would be devastating - world-changing, even. And for another, there's no telling how desperate Putin will get or how close to being deposed he may come.
But for Putin to go all-in and push the red button, the situation would have to be incredibly dire, and I'll tell you why...
First and foremost, Ukraine's proximity to Russia is itself a deterrent.
When the United States bombed Japan, we had the luxury of doing it from a significant distance. We didn't have to worry about any kind of nuclear blowback.
And by that, I literally mean the wind.
That's not the case for Russia. Russia and Ukraine share a 1,300-mile-long border, with less than 600 miles between Moscow and Kyiv.
So if Putin were to detonate a nuke on Ukrainian soil, there's a decent chance that the nuclear fallout and particles of radiation would literally be blown back into his face.
Furthermore, when a nuclear blast occurs, the radiation contaminates the clouds and moisture in the air, resulting in radioactive raindrops that, again, could conceivably come down in Russia.