Now For The Intense Phase Of The Silver Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Like all bull markets, the silver bullmarket has different phases, and theses phases have different intensities ofprice growth.
There are various indications/signs that silver is going into aphase of the bull market where prices will rise much faster than before. I havecovered some of them in previous articles.
Here are a few things to look at.
A Drop in the USD/ZAR rate (probablybelow 12)
Due to the special relationship that silverprices have with the USD/ZAR exchange rate, it is good to watch it for an earlysign of a shifting bull market.
Below, is a comparison of a Silver chartand a USD/ZAR chart:
I have highlighted three significant peaksof the USD/ZAR chart. These were formed roughly seven years apart. This ratiotends to spike significantly before major market events or turnarounds.
After each of the first two significantpeaks (2001 and 2008), a multi-year silver rally followed.
The peak of 2016 is more similar to 2001peak, since, for example, the 2008 peak did not make a higher high. For thisreason a comparison to the 2001 peak is more relevant here.
Currently, silver prices are higher thanthe level it was at the last USD/ZAR peak, but it has not really taken of yet.The probability that it will rise faster over the coming months and years arereally high. Especially since if you look at the silver rally after the 2001USD/ZAR peak, you will see that silver did not really take off until the middleof 2003.
Now, we have to look for the USD/ZAR to godown another level (probably below the 12-level) to set off the acceleration ofsilver prices. Note that the USD/ZAR chart is often a leading indicator forsilver prices, so it is likely that we will see a drop in the USD/ZAR ratebefore a silver spike, however; it is not impossible that silver spike at thesame time as a USD/ZAR drop or even before.
A rise above the 200-month movingaverage
The silver correction since 2011 appears to be forming a similarpattern to the one from 1980 to 2001. I have marked the two patterns (1 to 7)to show how they could be similar. The move from 1 to 5 is typical of a majorcorrection (from top to bottom).
If the comparison is correct, then weappear just past the bottom for silver (a secondary bottom, since point 5 wasthe lowest).
Silver now needs to cross the 200-monthmoving average to confirm this bullish comparison.
For more on this, andsimilar analysis you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. Ihave also recently completed a Silver Fractal Analysis Report as well as a Gold Fractal Analysis Report.
Warm regards,
Hubert
“And it shall come to pass, that whosoevershall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”
http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/
You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za
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