NRF Predicts Jump in Holiday Sales Despite Tariffs

RAPAPORT... The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecast a strong risein US holiday sales, as a healthy economy outweighs tariff fears in the shortterm.Retail sales in November and December are expected toadvance 3.8% to 4.2% year on year, for a total of between $727.9 billion and$730.7 billion, the organization noted. The average increase over the past fiveyears was 3.7%, it added. "There is significant economic unease, but current economic data andthe recent momentum of the economy show that we can expect a much strongerholiday season than last year," NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said last week. "Job growth and higher wages mean there's moremoney in families' pockets, so we see both the willingness and ability to spendthis holiday season." However, the NRF is not certain how the trade war and the tariffs will influence total purchasing. "Retailers are using amyriad of mitigation tactics to limit the impact on consumers, and the impactwill ultimately vary by company and product," the NRF explained.Some 79% of consumers the federation surveyed in Septemberexpressed concern that tariffs would cause prices to rise, noting that thiscould affect their approach to shopping. However, retailers believe the steadyeconomy will help boost sales. "The US economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spendingis still the primary engine behind that growth," NRF CEO Matthew Shay said lastweek. "Consumers are in good financial shape, and retailers expect a strongholiday season." The NRF predicts online and other non-store sales willincrease 11% to 14% to between $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion. Image: Holiday gifts. (Pixabay)