Oil market fear and focus on OPEC and friends

By Eithne Treanor / March 16, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

The big fear and focus is clearly with shale production and OPEC and friends will be carefully examining the figures and pondering their future moves.

In early trading on Friday, Brent crude was still above US$65 with WTI holding above US$61 a barrel.

Traders and investors are restless and nervous about sustained growth in shale production.

OPEC's cooperative supply agreement has held strong while member countries and friends curtail production with continued commitment in an attempt to lower inventories and balance the market.

This has worked well for the market in the past year but the American shale producers continue to see this as the green light to turn on the taps.

Too much oil?

The danger now is the prospect of too much oil and not enough global demand.

The market has been encouraged by growth in oil demand figures in recent years, but supply has grown faster than anticipated.

The International Energy Agency sees global oil supply growing year on year and in this month's report said supply was now 97.9 million barrels a day, up 700,000 barrels a day from this time last year.

The IEA said that supply from non-OPEC producers, particularly the US would increase by 1.8 million barrels a day this year.

Only 760,000 barrels a day were added last year. Looking at demand figures for 2018, the IEA only sees a growth of 1.5 million barrels a day.

OPEC and Russia committed to rebalancing crude market

OPEC and friends, led by Russia have been committed to rebalancing the market since January 2017, but analysts worry now if their efforts are in vain as the oil price has been held back by the increase in US supply. 

The US government reported an increase in stockpiles by 5 million barrels, up for the third straight week.

A report from Dutch investment bank ING Group observed how crude futures are moving in sync with the equity markets and more shipments of US crude to Asia are obvious.

Rising US exports

Data from the Energy Information Administration reveals that US exports have risen about 1.5 million barrels in the last six months, almost double that of previous months.

The bank warns that the OPEC, non-OPEC agreement is in danger of backfiring and hurting member countries of the organisation as "they continue to give market share away." 

ING Group predicts a 2018 oil price of US$57 for the second half of the year, and adds that prices need to fall below US$60 to "reduce that incentive for US producers."

Goldman Sachs sees stronger demand

OPEC remains optimistic and many banks like Goldman Sachs and RBC share the view that oil demand will continue to strengthen and absorb the added supply.

In this months oil market report, OPEC acknowledges the increase in American and non-OPEC production for the fourth straight month.

OPEC sees global oil demand rising by 1.6 million barrels a day, but sees an equal if not greater supply increase from non-Opec producers.

OPEC sees American production meeting most of this demand growth. OPEC set out to decrease the global stockpiles and this month's report shows that oil inventories in developed nations are down by 85 percent since last year.

The report also showed that OPEC members collective production for February was 32.19 million barrels a day, the lowest since April last year.

BP's outlook

BP issued its 2018 Technology Outlook this week, examining advancements in Europe, China and North America.

The wider industry will be curious to see how technology can lower costs of production and will no doubt be digesting the findings in this report.

The CEO of BP, Bob Dudley said it's all about exploring technology and planning for the future.

"Such investments need to be informed by an understanding of what the future may hold and BP has always made this topic a priority, he added, "as we look to the future, our technology teams work with our businesses, specialists and partners to understand technological trends and forces."

Wood Mackenzie's macro oils team issued a report this week looking at global cost curves and estimates that the cost of conventional supply in the US is likely to increase in the longer term, putting more emphasis on the importance of the US Lower 48 tight oil, and making it "an important marginal barrel producer."

The report sees conventional and some deepwater projects now as competitive as the lower 48, but this has come at the expense of volumes.

As the technical and monitoring committees of OPEC prepare to meet next month, the big focus will be on the US data and the non-stop production and export from American shores.

The market needs this agreement to stay in place and OPEC and friends, for now, remain committed to the current production cuts.

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