Oil markets fear rising US production, while OPEC hopes for continuing harmony

By Eithne Treanor / January 19, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

The recent strength in the oil market was bound to attract new entrants and this week the sentiment feared a rise in US production would weigh on the price.

In early trading on Friday, Brent crude was priced above US$68 with WTI holding around US$63 a barrel.

The week started well with a stronger oil price not seen since the end of 2014 and Brent crude above US$70 a barrel.

Traditionally slower demand

The market knows we're coming into a time of traditional slower crude demand as winter draws to a close in coming weeks.

In OPEC's monthly oil market report, the organisation revised its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in the year ahead.

With earlier expectations of around 160,000 barrels a day from all non-OPEC producers, the report now says we can expect an increase of 1.15 million barrels a day, due to the fact that higher oil prices "are bringing more supply to the market, particularly in North America."

Looking ahead to 2018, many analysts expect American crude production to break through the 10 million barrel a day level.

The Energy Information Administration showed production levels at 9.75 million barrels last week.

Just a couple of weeks previous, output was at 9.49 million barrels, so the trend is clearly upwards.

US crude inventory is on the decline

Domestic crude inventories are on the decline, down more than 6 million barrels last week to stand at 412.65 million barrels.

The five-year average is around 420 million barrels, so stocks are now at a 3-year seasonal low.

This month's OPEC report says it expects total US crude supply to increase by 110,000 barrels a day in the year ahead.

"Constructive" outlook for oil

Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital says "the outlook for crude is constructive," and she has less fear about the growth of US production mainly because, "there's a very healthy demand picture" ahead for the year, especially if OPEC keeps the agreement in place for the full year.

The key stabilizer credited with bringing strength back to the market has been the OPEC, no-OPEC production cut agreement.

The monitoring committee meets this weekend in Oman to work through the figures and examine compliance. 

This will be the first meeting of the year under the chairmanship of Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Khalid Al Falih and the UAE energy Minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei in his capacity as OPEC President.

The Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak who is the co-chair of the monitoring committee will also attend the meeting.

Speaking this week on the sidelines of the annual Gaidar forum in Russia, Novak told reporters "the agreement must continue and not react to momentary, passing changes," adding that the balance of supply and demand was more important.

OPEC confident strong compliance will continue

OPEC continues in its focus to lower inventories to the five-year average and in a recent interview with OPEC's President and UAE energy minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei, he said he was confident the strong compliance would remain in place and he talked of working on a longer-term alliance of cooperation with those signed up to the agreement saying, "they appreciate the value of being associated with market recovery." 

He said the market was in very good condition and welcomed the renewal of the agreements for a full year.  

Al Mazrouei said, "all of those give the right signals to market and we have seen the market giving us back right signals in terms of reducing inventories, in terms of approaching market recovery and we are in good shape, I'm optimistic the rest of the year will be good as well."

This weekend's meeting in Oman will set the scene for the year ahead.

OPEC and friends have pleased the market by delivering committed compliance last year and with the resolve of the key players, keeping harmony in the group will be essential to keep confidence in the markets as we start the year.

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