Oil price remains resilient at the end of downright scary week for equity markets

By Eithne Treanor / March 23, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

The selloff in the equity markets was downright scary this week as a US trade war with China looks likely.

Traders also reacted to the Facebook data sharing debacle, as technology stocks lost billions in value within hours.

Commodity prices also fell and in early trading on Friday, Brent crude was close to US$70 with WTI holding close to US$65 a barrel.

Strength in the oil market is dependent on strong economic growth and oil demand and any prospect of trade restrictions will have a knock-on effect for energy demand.

Oil industry is against Trump tariffs

The oil and gas industry is opposed to the Trump tariffs as the industry is so reliant on steel for pipelines, drilling rigs and construction. Its estimated that three quarters of all the steel used in the oil and gas construction sector is imported, so tariffs will raise the cost of doing business considerably.

China could retaliate with tariffs on US imports, but the big fear is contagion on a wider scope with a global slowdown in trade.

All this comes at a time when analysts are worried about a slowdown in Chinese growth that might affect the oil price in the short term.

Capital Economics issued a report this week highlighting the prospect of a slowdown in GDP growth in China this year. Earlier this month, S & P Platts estimated that Chinese oil demand could slow to 4.2 percent this year, down from 5.5 percent last year.

China will remain a key player

China will remain a key player in the oil market, with imports of more than 9.57 million barrels a day.

The country had a record year in 2017, topping the US in terms of imports as China filled strategic reserves and brought more refining capacity on line.

The China National Petroleum Corporation was one of the new players to form a key partnership with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company this week.

ADNOC still retains 60 percent ownership of the country's national oil company.

Shanghai Crude will become more familiar with traders around the world as China launches its crude oil futures on Monday.

Analysts watch for US interest rate fall-out

As the US raised interest rates this week by 25 basis points, analysts were watching for any oil market fallout.

Capital Economics says there are bigger factors at play in terms of oil price volatility these days as "US interest rates are still at historic lows so there is not a significant opportunity cost to holding non-interest bearing assets."

The report adds that "persistent rises in US shale output will more than offset growth in demand so that the market will record a small surplus."

Major investors agree on oil price

The major investment banks are still not in agreement about the oil price projections this year, but Morgan Stanley said it expects Brent crude to reach around US$75 a barrel due to geopolitical risk and a thin supply cushion, with global inventories "at the bottom end of the five-year range."

Despite lower global oil inventories, the Saudi Arabia oil minister and head of the OPEC, non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee said there's still much work to be done.

Speaking to reporters in Washington this week, Khalid Al Falih said this would be on the agenda at the OPEC meeting in June and added that he was looking at putting in place a mechanism for all the cooperating countries to work with into 2019.

Reuters reported on Friday that the vice-president of Lukoil, Leonid Fedun said that OPEC and Russia should "extend oil cuts into 2020 if US oil output keeps booming."

Middle East lining up US$1 trillion of investment

Middle East energy companies are looking to invest about US$1 trillion over the next five years according to the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation.

In its MENA Energy Investment Outlook report, APICORP said the big focus will be on power in the region, with renewable projects being a part of the big investment portfolio.

Already US$345 billion has been committed to approved projects.

The report sees economic growth of around 3.2 percent across the region and the majority of investment is expected to come from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The CEO of APICORP, Dr. Ahmed Ali Attiga, said he expects "the MENA region to continue investing heavily as major energy-exporting countries expand the size of their energy sector and strengthen their positions in global markets."

The report says it also sees challenges in terms of oil price stability, the cost of capital and the fragile geopolitical situation in the region.

Crude price remains resilient

Despite the global stock sell-off this week, the oil price remains somewhat resilient. Inventories are lower and many analysts are looking to stronger global oil demand this year to save the day.

America's new push towards China has delivered a new blow, but the oil market is holding up against all odds, for now.

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