With Bitcoin making the news last week when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved exchange traded funds, it’s a good time to review the topic again.Bitcoin still offers the potential to serve as a form of honest money and to end-run the central bankers and politicians who have abused the fiat system so badly. Yet some proponents still market the crypto asset as &ldqu...Read More

Gold price has been falling in today’spre-market trading, but… Given the recent (HUGE!) weekly reversal, does itreally surprise anyone?The Historical ContextWell, it might surprise those thateasily forget what happened in the previous weeks and focus on just theday-to-day price swings, but the truth is that the context provided by previousweeks, months, and years (and the performance...Read More

While the yellow metal hit a newrecord high, the silver price remains below its post-pandemic peak. Recession RisksLoom Over SilverWhile gold has dominated the headlines recently,silver and mining stocks have been material underperformers. And with thelatter better barometers of investors’ enthusiasm, their relative weaknessshould concern the permabulls.  Likewise, with w...Read More

While looser monetary policy may seembullish in the short term, the medium-term ramifications could upend the yellowmetal.Recession PessimismAheadThe ‘bad news is good news’ tradecontinues to dominate the financial markets, as weaker economic data isperceived as bullish for risk assets. In a nutshell: if the Fed pivots and endsQT, all of investors’ problems will disappear. Howeve...Read More

Silver just shot up, and given whatthe stock market is doing, it makes perfect sense.Namely, it’s most likely the final partof the rally in them both, and the same is the case for gold and mining stocks. Echoing Early 2022Starting with the stock market, it’sstill the case that the shares are following their early-2022 path.What I wrote about it previously, remainsup-to-date:Stockssoare...Read More

Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) — the godfather of the uranium trade — has moved to all-time highs, with the spot price hitting US$80.00/lb. From Trading Economics:"Uranium prices in the U.S. surged past US$80 per pound for the first time since January 2008 in November, soaring past pre-Fukushima disaster levels amid high demand and risks to supply. Fossil fuel volatility and decarbon...Read More

Hi,Gold has long been seen as the refuge for investors who are concerned about economic downturns and inflation. And it's tempting to attribute the metal's price movements to factors like supply and demand, the dollar and interest rates. But Elliott wave analysis shows the actual driver of gold prices is ... market psychology.Elliott wave analysis is the only method that objectifies market psychol...Read More

Gold stocks have mostlyground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector reallyout of favor again.  Yet both the metaland its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of theyear.  From late October to late February,gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage.  Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold&rs...Read More

The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value. I have not posted the monthly chart of the Copper/Gold ratio probabl...Read More

Caught between conflicting forces,will pivot optimism outweigh the economic malaise that should unfold in themonths ahead?A Short-Lived Rally?From war premiums to pivot hopes, silver seessunny skies, as the international and domestic fundamental outlooksincrease investors’ enthusiasm , as the international and domesticfundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm. However, t...Read More

As the concern with geopoliticspeaked, so did gold price. Silver and mining follow. Are you prepared for thelikely outcome?Gold Peaks and SlidesIn my yesterday’sanalysis, I wrote the following about gold: Goldmade a few attempts to move above the all-important $2,000 level and the risingresistance lines, and it failed all of them. The strong short-term momentum isgone, just as the fear of th...Read More

The gold miners’ stocksare lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind.  Their striking performance gap is undermininggold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector.  While definitely vexing, this anomaly has onlyarisen over the past couple weeks.  Goldstocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon,...Read More

As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach t...Read More

With the economic backdrop continuingto deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.Ominous Signs AheadWhile silver has bounced off its recentlows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And whenvolatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver andmining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector.  In addition,&n...Read More

While geopolitical conflict has keptgold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.  EconomicRecession LoomsWhile risk assets attempt to breakfree of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance hasthe yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straightprofitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the gree...Read More

Gold price rallied this week, and thisgot many heads turning. Rightfully so?Let’s check the details and see whatreally happened.Having said that, let’s take a look atgold’s rally. Gold moved above its April 2023 high.Again.HistoricalPatterns: A Look BackThis is the fourth time that ithappened if we don’t count the tiny early-January attempts.All those moves have been invali...Read More

While geopolitical conflict has keptgold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.  EconomicRecession LoomsWhile risk assets attempt to breakfree of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance hasthe yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straightprofitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the gree...Read More

Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwindWe have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top). Let’s upd...Read More

Crisis, crisis everywhere. But objective, free from the noise of the news, forecasting of commodity prices starts here, with our free Special Report ($155 value). The geopolitical landscape is wracked. War in Ukraine, humanitarian crisis in Syria, and now, what Vox Media on October 15 called the "worst conflict in decades" between Israel and Hamas. For mainstream analysts who use news as the main...Read More

Silver has been a major underperformerin recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields anda stronger USD Index.With silver gunning for its 2023 lows,the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weaknesshas been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy ameaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better...Read More