Vladimir Putin isn't stupid.
Love him or hate him, there's no question that the Russian president isn't weak either.
The geopolitical mess and ongoing spat between Russia and Ukraine should strike fear into the heart of every European who hopes to keep warm this winter.
At first glance, you might be inclined to believe that the EU can pressure Russia into capitulating. After all, nearly 60% of Russia's annual budget relies on oil and gas revenues, and they make up a staggering amount of the country's gross product.
Hey, maybe the most recent threats of killing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project will be enough.
Perhaps if the EU just turns the screws on Putin a little and threatens those energy exports just enough, Putin will give in.
Unfortunately, both the EU and Ukraine need Russia much more than Russia needs them.
And if history is any guide, we know Putin is more than willing to turn off the taps.
Then again, last time turned out to be a golden opportunity for a small group of investors, and today is no different.
The more veteran members here in our Energy and Capital investment community remember that it wasn't too long ago that Putin shut off Russia's gas supplies to Ukraine after a contract dispute.
The ordeal began at the end of 2008 and lasted a few weeks into 2009. After the typical posturing, gas exports into Ukraine were halted, which had a rippling effect into the rest of Europe.
Russia lost roughly $1.5 billion in lost gas sales yet proved its resolve that when push comes to shove, Putin was willing to shut off the gas entirely.
But like I said, he's not stupid - you can bet he's learned from that experience.
He's more prepared today than ever before.
Do you think it's a coincidence that Russia inked a 30-year gas deal via a new pipeline recently?
However, the situation gets much worse for some members of the EU.
At some point, you have to wonder how Europe can possibly unshackle itself from the chains of foreign energy dependence.
Of course, it's easier for some. France gets roughly 70% of its electricity from nuclear power, which accounts for over half of all the EU's nuclear-generated electricity.
Perhaps that's why Emmanuel Macron isn't sweating as much as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
You see, Scholz is in a bit of a bind.