Commodity markets are looking up this year with a strong start to 2012, after prices were a mixed bag in 2011.But as the Aesop Fable shows, it takes more than a strong start to win the race, according to CIBC senior economist Peter Buchanan.While diminished risk aversion helped reduce prices for commodities and other volatile assets, Mr. Buchanan says they have better traction in 2012.Commodity ma...Read More

By Andy HomeSupply shortfall has defined the copper market for several years now.Many of the world’s biggest copper mines are aging and ore grades have been falling accordingly.Mine capacity utilization fell steadily from over 90 percent at the start of the last decade to 80.4 percent last year, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This year has been even worse. Capacity...Read More

The period of seasonal strength in the metals and mining sector is approaching. What are prospects this year?Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes that the metals and mining sector has two periods of seasonal strength: From November 19th to January 5th and from January 23rd to May 5th. The combined periods have recorded an average return per period during the past 22 periods of 16.1%....Read More

Investors can expect a dividend increase of approximately 20% when Barrick Gold Corp. reports third quarter results before markets open on Thursday, October 27.That’s the forecast from Stephen D. Walker, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, who noted that Barrick last hiked its dividend in July 2010. He also pointed out that the company’s payout ratio is 10% of 2011 estimated earnings, comp...Read More

Shares of North American base metal miners tumbled on Monday along with the price of copper, zinc, and nickel after the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by S&P amplified fears of a global economic slowdown.Shares of U.S. miner Freeport McMoRan and Canada’s First Quantum and Teck Resources, among others, fell sharply in New York and Toronto.Copper, used in the power and construction in...Read More

Copper slipped on Monday in thin trading as signs that the property market was cooling in top metals consumer China worsened the outlook for industrial metals demand and weighed on market sentiment.Three-month copper closed at $7,260 a tonne, down more than 1 percent from a close at $7,345 a tonne on Friday. Traders said business was being pared back ahead of the end of the year.Prices have shed o...Read More

Copper posted its first weekly gain in five weeks on Friday as it pushed near $8,000 per tonne on the back of persistent inventory tightness and a move this week by central banks to boost liquidity.With the exception of tin futures, which lost nearly 4 percent this week, investment demand for the base metals was up sharply. One standout performer was aluminium, which surged nearly 7 percent after...Read More

Industrial metals rose for a second day in London, extending the biggest rally in two years, as figures showed manufacturing may swell in top global consumer China. Chinese manufacturing might expand in October for the first month in four after a preliminary purchasing managers’ index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today climbed to 51.1 from September’s final readin...Read More

Shares of Quadra FNX rose more than 7 percent on Monday morning after the Canadian base metal miner reported a large increase in quarterly copper production.Vancouver-based Quadra said its second-quarter production rose 20 percent from the previous quarter at its mines in the United States, Canada and Chile.The company, which is expected to report quarterly financial results on Aug. 10, said coppe...Read More

Copper fell on Monday as risk aversion swept through the markets due to the worsening euro zone debt crisis and the threat of a U.S. default, while the fight against inflation in top metals consumer China looked set to intensify.Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.3 percent at $9,644 a tonne at 1427 GMT from $9,672 at the close on Friday.The metal used in power and constructio...Read More

By Andy HomeAssuming, like the investment bank community, you are still keeping the faith with the overall bull narrative, the coming period will be all about divergence between both commodities in general and the LME metals in particular.Or as researchers at Barclays Capital put it in the company’s most recent weekly research report, “the supply side is shaping a more diverse fundamen...Read More

Copper inched higher on Tuesday as the euro steadied against the dollar ahead of a series of U.S. economic reports, while signals that Chinese consumers are buying provided a floor for prices.Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $8,880.50 a tonne in official rings, up from $8,840 at Monday’s close.The metal used in power and construction hit its lowest in more than five mo...Read More

By Andy HomeIndustrial users of the London Metal Exchange have greeted the launch of physical exchange traded funds for base metals with a mixture of fear and loathing.By removing metal from the supply chain during a period of expected market deficit, could they become a price driver in their own right? Or will they prove to be a damp squib, a purely temporary by-product of “loose” mon...Read More

With the first half of 2018 now drawn to a close, much of the financial medias’ headlines and commentary relating to the gold market has been focusing on the fact that the US dollar gold price has moved lower year-to-date. Specifically, from a US dollar price of $1302.50 at close on 31 December 2017, the price of gold in US dollar terms has slipped by approximately 3.8% over the last six mon...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Dec 18, 2019December 13, 2019Food prices are poised to see their biggest rise in several years, and not just because China is going to become a buyer again of U.S. agricultural goods.There is a different reason for expecting food prices to rise, and it is contained in this week’s lead chart. Gold prices act as a leading indication for lots of diffe...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Dec 31, 2019December 27, 2019Gold prices are seeing a Christmas week pop, getting all of the gold bugs excited again.But the smart money “commercial” traders of gold futures have a different vision of the future. Every Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes its Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, detailing the numbe...Read More

And just like that, it never happened!The S&P 500 just broke to a new record high...Continue...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Jan 9, 2020January 3, 2020The efforts of the Federal Reserve to inject extra liquidity into the banking system over the past 2 months have helped to fuel the year-end (2019) rally.Questions remain about how long the Fed may choose to keep up that effort, and whether the Fed has enough ink in the printing presses to overcome other market forces. And with...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Jan 15, 2020January 9, 2020The major averages are ignoring missile strikes, oil market turmoil, and excessively bullish sentiment, keeping prices marching higher in 2020.But we have a major bearish divergence now in the VIX Index, which is NOT making lower lows to confirm those higher price highs.The VIX Index made its lowest closing low for this price u...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Oct 22, 2019October 17, 2019Short-term interest rates have been falling, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut its own Fed Funds rate target.This week’s chart says that there is still a lot further for rates to fall. I get a lot of data out of the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, and I review the relevant insights every Friday i...Read More