Silver During Periods Of Industrial Inflation
Producer Price Inflation is red hot versus Consumer Price Inflation, and if this persists like the periods of 1973 to 1982 and 2006 to 2014, silver will...
Submitted by ReadTheTicker
In the chart below we see the relationship between silver and the yield curve and the Producer Price Inflation.
The yield curve is the US 30 yr interest rate less the Fed Funds interest rate (blue line). When the blue line is high a steep yield curve is present, and when it is low a flat yield curve is present. A steep yield curve is when longer term rates are higher than short term rates vica versa for a flat yield curve.
A steep yield curve is when the long term rates are higher than the short term rates, suggesting investors are not selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is a healthy risk on environment. A flat yield curve is a period of economic concern as investors are selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is when the blue line is falling and if below zero it may lead to a recession. Silver price tends to suffers during recessions.
Economic recovery is when the blue line moves from up from zero, this recovery leads to increased industrial and investor demand for silver.
POINT: Yield curve recovery leads silver price recover.The next indicator (red line) is the industrial producer price inflation ratio to the consumer price inflation, or PPI divided by CPI, or business versus the consumer. If during a period of yield curve recovery we also have hot producer price inflation the silver price recovery is likely to be more aggressive.
Higher inflation arrives during periods of abundant money supply while suffering market constraints (or shortages). There is abundant money around (after FED printing) and COVID19 has disrupted supply chains resulting in shortages. High demand for items in short supply creates inflation.
Currently 2021 PPI is red hot versus CPI and if this persist like the periods of 1973 to 1982 and 2006 to 2014 (ex 2008 shock) silver will likely see higher prices.
POINT: Hot industrial price inflation will support higher silver prices.
The chart below shows Gann Angles drawn from zero (see more via our previous post), these are good for price pull back analysis. They currently show an ideal place for the bulls to buy back in at a great price.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
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Investing Quote...
.."In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction."..Jesse LivermoreUnless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.Warren Buffett.."If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong."..Bernard Baruch..."People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That's nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance"...Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig's methods came, from Jesse Livermore)..."The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule"Warren Buffett
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