Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Formulating a Trend Forecast
The long-term picture is of the Silver price being stuck in a trading range of between $21 and $14 pending a breakout higher with the current resistance at $15.25. Then resistance at $16,25, $18.50 and finally $21.
The silver price only really tends to come alive during a monetary crisis of sorts be it financial or inflation, stock market panic etc. So is there a crisis on the horizon? Well whilst Trump's china trade war is stressing the system a bit, it's not exactly reached the point yet where each side is threatening military action and trade embargo's so we are not quite there yet. Whilst many may argue that another financial crisis is brewing out there, perhaps in student and auto loans. But again we are not quite there yet hence Silver remaining in hibernation. Whilst the US economy may be slowing, it's not exactly teetering on the brink of recession yet.
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Silver Investing Trend AnalysisGold Price Trend ForecastSilver Long-Term Trend AnalysisSilver Medium-Term Trend AnalysisSilver Short-Term Trend AnalysisGold - Silver RatioSilver Price Trend Forecast ConclusionHow to Invest in SilverSo for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
So where Silver is concerned, the technical's, fundamentals and inter markets are saying were not quite there yet in terms of that Spike higher. So whilst Silver may reluctantly follow the Gold price higher, I am not seeing it blasting off past resistance of $21 anytime soon.
Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Silver price to continue to trade in a volatile trading range with an upward bias towards a target of $18.50 later in 2019 as it steps higher into each successive trading range i.e. $15.25 to $16.25, then $16.25 to $17.30, then $17.30 to $18.50, which would represent a 25% gain on it's current price of $14.74. Whilst a spike to at $35+ remains a longer term objective.
Remember Silver is for Long-term INVESTING rather than to try and trade because it is a volatile messy market in terms of TA. Where the key accumulation zone for the past 5 years has been $14 to $15 which is where we find the Silver price currently trading.
The bottom line is that I see Silver as a coiled spring because in historic terms it is very undervalued against Gold and so I expect that spring to eventually propel Silver into an overbought state against Gold even though we are likely several years away from when that happens.
How to Invest in Silver
The easiest way to gain exposure to Silver is via the SLV ETF. Though remember you are investing in a trust so the SLV trading price will not be the same as the Silver market price, but the SLV price trend usually does quite closely track the Silver price trend as the following chart illustrates:
Disclaimer - I am invested in Silver (SLV)
This analysis was first made Patrons who support my work. Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019
So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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