SMM Evening Comments (Jan 16)

SHANGHAI, Jan 16 (SMM)? 1/4 ?Nonferrous metals futures were weak on Tuesday afternoon, with aluminium dropping nearly 3% and nickel down 1.8%. Lead was down 1% and copper down 0.7%. Tin also dropped slightly.

The ferrous complex also dropped in the afternoon. Coking coal dropped almost 4% and iron ore dropped 1.6%. Coke slipped 1.5% and hot-rolled coil dropped slightly. Rebar edged up slightly at closing.

Copper: Copper saw an outflow of 705 million yuan today, as investors scaled back their bullish bets. Prices are expected to move downwards. Investors should monitor the supporting strength at the 60-day moving average.

Aluminium: We saw bulls close out their positions and SHFE aluminium hit a low of 14,725 yuan/mt today. We expect the downward trend to continue in the short term. 

Lead: SHFE lead fell and broke through all moving averages today as investors put on more bearish bets. The contract is likely to see rangebound trading tonight.

Nickel: Nickel saw an outflow of 240 million yuan today, and is expected to trade lower to test supporting strength at the 20-day moving average. There is little news on macro level tonight.

Zinc: LME zinc dipped while SHFE zinc fell sharply. Light trade in the off season is expected due to accumulated inventories and lower consumption. In addition, some companies in north China have closed for Chinese New Year and this will restrict the rising range. SHFE zinc is expected to trade around 26,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Tin: We expect tin to trade under pressure and test support strength at 144,000 yuan/mt tonight.

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