SMM Morning Comments (Jan 24)

SHANGHAI, Jan 24 (SMM)? 1/4 ?

Copper: Surging inventory has seen LME copper prices wander around the $7,000/mt level for a few days. Inventory levels and changes in spot premiums would set the tone for future LME copper movement in the short term. On the SHFE, open interest has increased to 708,000 lots with many of them speculative bets. We see increased volatility in the near term.

Aluminium: LME aluminium is expected to trade at $2,205-2,245/mt today with support at the five-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages. SHFE aluminium, on the other hand, is set to follow its western counterpart and trade rangebound at 14,560-14,760 yuan/mt. We see spot discounts at 180-140 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: Downstream demand remained sluggish as restocking ahead of Chinese New Year has yet to start. We see the SHFE 1805 nickel at 98,200-99,700 yuan/mt today with spot price at 97,900-98,200 yuan/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc saw support at the five-day and 10-day moving averages as well as decreasing inventory. However, poor performance in other metals may drag down its momentum. We expect LME zinc to trade at $3,390-3,430/mt with SHFE zinc at 25,900-26,300 yuan/mt today.

Tin: LME tin is expected to stay rangebound at high levels with the support of weaker US dollar. Resistance, however, is seen at $20,800/mt.  SHFE tin is expected to trade at 146,000-147,000 yuan/mt today while spot price is to move at 144,500-146,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: SHFE lead is set to trade at 19,600-19,800 yuan/mt and seek upward momentum today.

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