SPOILER ALERT: Silver Has Not Bottomed

Why exactly would the Cartel not take advantage of this paint-by-numbers freebie?

(by Half Dollar) Everybody is still too bullish.

In general, everybody is certain that yield curve control is coming, and that's like totally bullish for everything, so they say, and no doubt something is coming from the Fed, but it's not coming at no dang 1.6% interest rate on the stinkin' 10-Year!

Oh no.

There has to be more pain first, and after the Cartel turned today's stock market rout into a rip roaring rally, I'd say the gamblers in the rigged casino are nice and set-up for some acute pain.

Everybody is also still too bullish on silver.

OK, "Hey Half Dollar, just stop right there you wannabe analyst, because you're going to embarrass yourself, badly, like you always do, and if you haven't noticed, a lot of really, really smart, actual analysts have been calling the bottom in silver this week, all week long, so really, don't become the laughing stock, again, and don't say anything else or you will sound even more stupid Mr I-Don't-Know-What's-Going-On-In-The-Markets-So-I-Just-Make-Stuff-Up-To-Sound-Like-I-Do!".

Joke's on me, huh?

Be careful, however, because when the joke is on "market participants", in my experience, that involves a blown-up trading account.

Do you even trade, bro?

Paid your tuition to the "markets", have you?

Regardless, everybody is still too bullish.

Here's the thing about sentiment: Most armchair quarterbacks, chart huggers, experts, gurus, pundits and more don't understand sentiment, especially the ones talking about it.

And while I'm not so sure of the exact number of Tweets I saw this week proclaiming "sentiment in gold is in the gutter" or declaring "gold sentiment has never been worse", I'm pretty sure it's more than 2.5 gazillion, yet what people miss is the fact that they're talking about "mainstream" sentiment, and well, they don't call it "propaganda" for nothing, you know!

Yes, I get what the mainstream is saying about gold, and yes, I get that what the mainstream is saying about gold is extra negative, but who cares about what the mainstream is saying about gold in the first place?

Furthermore, attempts at measuring and quantifying sentiment as a "percentage of this" or a "contrasting of that", while using "official numbers", is kind of like giving a two year-old child a bag of flour, a box of sugar, some eggs, milk and vanilla bean, and then telling the toddler to bake a cake, only, using a car repair manual as the recipe book, and without it being in the English language.

I mean, I guess it's possible, because I know for a fact that my son could fire up the Xbox and watch inappropriate movies before he could tie his shoes, but then again, he is trilingual and well versed in technology, so there's that.

Either way, I'd probably add one more ingredient and turn it into a chocolate lava cake, just to be sure.

Now, what is important when it comes to sentiment is sentiment that is at the margins, such as the sentiment of the wannabe alternative media personalities who are striving to become, ironically enough, mainstream media personalities, and if we look at them, we can see they're still uber-bullish.

And yes, they too have also tried to call the bottom in silver this week, over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, again.

And again.

And again.

And over and over again.

Seriously.

Again.

And while they've mostly been quiet today, probably because they're more embarrassed by their calls than anything else, when they're all convinced silver's going lower, that's when 'Ol Half Dollar will get bullish again.

For now, what can I say?

It sucks being different?

It sucks buying out-of-the-money call options and then looking at silver's daily chart:

It stings too.

I've been trying to be clear, and I've been shouting it from the rooftops, so now, I'll try to make the point in the form of a question:

Why exactly would the Cartel not take advantage of that paint-by-numbers freebie?

Remember: Whether there is, or is not, any silver, anywhere, at all, that's not the Cartel's problem!

I was wrong on my gold call:

My call was $1700, but obviously, the Cartel wasn't done with us.

If you're new around here, then know that it may not feel good, but at least you'll get used to it.

We've been used to palladium banging around in its sideways choppy channel:

We seem ripe for a change of pace, don't we?

Platinum is still positive, year-to-date:

Barely.

I've barely felt the pain of rising prices at the pump:

Anybody else buy a brand new truck in the late Summer of 2020 and still have less than 1,200 miles on it?

Everybody is also uber bullish that we're going to be shuttled around in self-driving, electric cars:

But then again, most people think that we went to the moon, so it's safe to say that most people are dreaming.

Or whatever.

Whatever you say about fear, don't say it's in the markets:

Why fear when the Fed's got the market's back, right?

A lot of people think the worst is over:

If I'm right with my call, however, the worst is yet to come.

Sure, the move has been dramatic:

The plunge will be dramatic too.

And speaking of drama, the whole world's gonna be the stage:

And this ain't no dang comedy!

Unless, of course, dark humor is your thing.

And if so, it's cool.

I'm not one to judge.

Thanks for reading,

Paul "Half Dollar" Eberhart