Standard Chartered: Gold To Rise In Autumn After 'Seasonal Lull'
Standard Chartered says gold may ease somemore in the near term during a “seasonal lull” but then rise in September.Factors that could push gold down some more in the near term include a seasonallyslow period for physical demand, bearish investment sentiment as reflected byrecent interest in shorting SPDR Gold Shares, and an estimated 200 tonnes ofETF positions that are now in the red, meaning they could be liquidated,Standard says. “Beyond the currentweakness, we expect prices to recover as USD [U.S. dollar] strength fades (weexpect EUR-USD to trade at $1.15 at end-2018) and strong seasonal demandmaterializes in India in September given the good monsoon forecast,” Standardsays. “Further, gross short positions are at record highs, suggesting scope forshort-covering activity.” Also, Standard adds, the Relative Strength Indextechnical indicator shows that gold prices are “oversold” in the currentenvironment.
By Allen Sykoraof Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
Commerzbank: China's Gold Imports Pick UpIn June
Friday July 27, 2018 09:12
Chinese gold imports have risen lately, perhaps helped bylower prices, reports Commerzbank. Analysts cite data from Hong Kong’s Censusand Statistics Department showing that China’s net imports from Hong Kongtotaled 80.9 tonnes last month, which was 40% more than in May and the mostsince March 2017. Switzerland also exported more gold to China in June,Commerzbank points out. “It is possible that the low prices increased buyinginterest somewhat even though the depreciation of the Chinese renminbiprevented local gold prices from falling any further,” the bank says. “What ismore, Chinese gold jewelers are likely to be stocking up ahead of the autumnseason of high demand.”
By Allen Sykoraof Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
RBC's Gero: Options Expiry, Strong DollarKeep Gold Under Pressure
Friday July 27, 2018 09:12
An options expiration this week and U.S. dollar strength have left goldfutures under pressure, says George Gero,managing director with RBC Wealth Management. As of 8:56 a.m. EDT, Comex Augustgold was $3.40 lower to $1,222.30 an ounce. As a result of the options expiry,some 1,200 new shorts were added to open interest, he explains. Traders arestill not looking to gold as a safe haven, while September U.S. dollar indexfutures are holding recent gains to around 94.50, Gero reports. “All this keeps gold onthe defensive for now, and the large continued open interest in options...withlarge puts below key $1,200 may continue volatility all through thisquarter,” he says. “If we continue to hold this area, a rally could bring newbuyers as well with short covering.”
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
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