Stocks Extend Gains on US-China Talks; Fed's Bostic Urges 'Patience' on Rates - TheStreet

By Martin Baccardax / January 10, 2019 / www.thestreet.com / Article Link

The Wednesday Market Minute

Global stocks extend gains, with markets around the world rising past three week highs, as an extra day in U.S.-China trade talks adds to speculation the two sides are nearing a deal.Stocks and bond yields continue to defy growth concerns even as World Bank trims global GDP forecast and cautions on "bumper ride" in 2019.U.S. crude tops $50 a barrel, extending recent gains to nearly 20%, as a weaker dollar, trade talk progress and OPEC cuts combine to take commodity markets higher.U.S. stocks set to rise for a fourth consecutive session, with S&P 500 futures indicating an 8 point advance, ahead of key speeches from regional Fed Presidents Dr. Raphael Bostic and Charles Evans.

Market Snapshot

Global stocks extended gains Wednesday, lifting markets in Asia to a three-and-a-half week high, as investors continue to drive equities higher amid further signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

U.S. equity futures were given an added boost by comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, who said the central bank should be "patient" and seek "greater clarity" from economic data before moving towards fresh interest rate hikes. 

"The appropriate response is to be patient in adjusting the stance of policy and to wait for greater clarity about the direction of the economy and the risks to the outlook," Bostic told the Chattanooga Area Chamber of Commerce. "All the available evidence at the moment points to caution regarding firms' approach to expansion. As long as that caution exists I suspect it will act as a natural governor" on U.S. growth.

Those views were echoed by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who told a business audience in Illinois that "because inflation is not showing any meaningful sign of heading above 2%, I feel we have good capacity to wait and carefully take stock of the incoming data and other developments."

Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicate a 100 point gain for the 30 stock benchmark while those linked to the S&P 500 suggest an 8 point bump to the upside. Nasdaq Composite futures are guiding to a 30-point gain for the tech-focused index, which has risen just under 4% so far this year.

Officials from the U.S. Trade Representatives Office added a third day to this week's face-to-face talks in Beijing, suggesting the first high-level meeting between the two sides since Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached a broad agreement on talks at last month's G20 summit in Argentina.

U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney told reporters the talks went "just fine", adding "it's been a good one for us" while China's state-run newspaper, the China Daily, said the government's aim was to find a lasting solution without making "unreasonable concessions" and that "any agreement has to involve give and take from both sides."

The trade talk progress, which has been bolstered by agreements on commodity purchases by China from U.S. farmers, including soybeans, helped take stocks in Asia to the highest levels sine mid-December, with the Nikkei 225 rising 1.1% and the MSCI ex-Japan benchmark adding 1.4% heading into the close of trading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was the region's standout performer, rising 2.24% higher in a broad-based rally led by Geely Automobile Holdings.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares edged higher in pre-market trading Wednesday as CEO Tim Cook insisted the iPhone XR remains its most popular product even as reports suggest the tech giant will slash production for new models this quarter amid slowing demand.

Apple shares were marked 0.44% higher in pre-market trading Wednesday, indicating an opening bell price of $151.410 each, a move that would extend its five-day gain to around 6.5%.

European stocks are also set to extend a three-week high today, with the Stoxx 600 benchmark rising 0.98% by mid-day trading, led by tech and auto stocks, which typically drive global trade rallies.

Germany's DAX performance index jumped 1.1% in Frankfurt while Britain's FTSE 100 was marked 1.03% higher as energy and basic resource stocks took the U.K. benchmark past the 6,900 point mark for the first time since early December. 

The equity market gain belie increasing signals of a slowing global economy, a concern expressed by the World Bank late Tuesday when it cut its world GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 3%, warning that the "the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead." 

Government bond yields, however, appear to be far more sanguine, with benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes trading at 2.74% overnight -- nearly more than 25 basis points higher than they were marked prior to Friday's blowout payroll data --  while similarly-term German bund yields were quoted at 0.234%, even as data points to the potential of a technical recession in Europe's biggest economy.

Global oil prices, as well, have risen sharply since the late-December trough, with U.S. crude up nearly 20% and back above $50 a barrel on the back of a weaker dollar, U.S.-China trade talk progress and the impact of OPEC's 1.2 million barrels in production cuts, which kicked in earlier this month. 

Brent crude contracts for March delivery, the global benchmark, were marked $1.19 higher from their Tuesday close in New York and changing hands at $59.91per barrel while WTI contracts for February were marked $1.12 higher at $50.90 per barrel.

 

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