The Federal Reserve digested the Trump administration's massive tax cuts and plan to boostspending with barely a hiccup, but Washington's sudden push for steep tariffs on steel andaluminum imports could saddle the U.S. central bank with the worst of both worlds - risinginflation and a slowing global economy.The combination of fiscal stimulus, which Fed officials viewed as hardly a game-changer formonetary policy, and a brewing trade war is a recipe for the sort of no-win situation centralbankers faced in the 1970s when they had to stomach high inflation or run the risk that interestrate increases would trigger a recession.The tariffs that President Donald Trump said he plans to levy next week, and the globalreaction to the announcement, punctured what had been a fairly calm and even bullish picture ofthe U.S. economy outlined by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during testimony in Congress this week.For more on the outlook for Fed policy, see below:------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LATEST STORIES3/2Outlook for Fed: Cloudy with chance of trade war 3/1Pimco economist Clarida seen as front-runner for Fed deputy job -sources 3/1Fed chief Powell says no evidence U.S. economy overheating 3/1Fed's Dudley delivers robust defense of free trade 3/1Atlanta Fed sees U.S. Q1 GDP growth back above 3 percent 2/28 Hawk or dove? Fed's Powell showed markets both sides in debut 2/28 Fed's Kashkari: 'I want to see the wage growth' 2/27 ANALYSIS-Fed chairman's debut wins Wall Street praise despite stock drop 2/27 Fed's Powell nods to stronger economy, backs gradual rate hike path 2/27 BREAKINGVIEWS-Powell buys wiggle room with political savvy 2/27 ANALYST VIEW-Fed Chairman Powell's testimony before U.S. lawmakers 2/27 INSTANT VIEW-First congressional testimony by U.S. Fed Chairman Powell 2/27 TEXT-Full text of Fed Chairman Powell's testimony 2/26 Fed's Quarles says some upside risks to U.S. economic outlook 2/26 Fed's Powell, a Republican, may tread less rocky road in Congress 2/26 Fed's Bullard says 'substantially' higher rates risk overly tight policy JANUARY 30-31 POLICY MEETING2/21 Fed policymakers show rising confidence on inflation, economic outlook 2/21 INSTANT VIEW - January Federal Reserve meeting minutes 1/31 Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees inflation rising this year 1/31 INSTANT VIEW-Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees inflation firming 1/31 TEXT-FOMC statement from Jan. 30-31 meeting 1/31 TEXT-Comparison of Fed's January and December policy statements 1/31 GRAPHIC-Yellen's swan song to markets 1/31 BREAKINGVIEWS-Bond market tightening complicates Powell's task DECEMBER 12-13 POLICY MEETING1/3 Fed sees future rate rises guided by inflation, fiscal stimulus 1/3 INSTANT VIEW 2-Fed minutes from December released 12/13 GRAPHIC-Flat U.S. yield curve not signaling recession risk - Yellen 12/13 Fed does not buy Trump tax-plan hype, sees short-lived economic boost 12/13 Wall Street sees repeat of three U.S. rate hikes in 2018 12/13 Fed lifts interest rates, keeps 2018 policy outlook unchanged 12/13 BREAKINGVIEWS-Yellen's fine legacy gives way to uncertain future 12/13 INSTANT VIEW-Fed lifts rates but 2018 policy outlook unchanged 12/13 Traders keep bets on two 2018 Fed rate hikes under Powell 12/13 TEXT-FOMC statement from Dec. 12-13 meeting 12/13 TEXT-Comparison of Fed's December and November policy statements 12/13 TABLE-Federal Reserve economic forecasts ANALYSIS2/5 A decade after recession, a jump in U.S. states with wage gains 1/7 In possible boon for White House, Fed ready to lay low as tax plan kicks OPINION2/21BREAKINGVIEWS-Trump's next Fed pick in limbo for wrong reason 2/14BREAKINGVIEWS-Hints of inflation pose litmus test for Powell Fed 1/29BREAKINGVIEWS-Fed's inflation-target rethink dodges big question 1/12BREAKINGVIEWS-Mnuchin and Dudley exemplify a political dilemma 1/5 BREAKINGVIEWS-Tight U.S. labor market may finally move Fed ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FED-WATCHING TOOLS:> POLL-Latest Reuters poll of primary dealers > FACTBOX: Fed policymakers' economic, rate projections > FACTBOX-Fed staff forecasts from FOMC minutes > Federal Open Market Committee policy statements > Federal funds futures contracts > DIARY-Federal Reserve events > Fed's weekly money supply report > Federal Reserve balance sheet graphic > TOP NEWS: Central banks around the globe ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Washington Economics Team)
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