Tech Talk for Friday March 1st 2019
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures gained 16 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to a 1.8% gain by the Shanghai Composite Index in anticipation of a trade deal between China and the U.S.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for January Personal Income was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in December. Actual was a slip of 0.1%. Consensus for January Personal Spending was a drop of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in November. Actual was a drop of 0.5%.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged following release of Canada's December GDP report released at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was unchanged from November. Actual was down 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, consensus for the fourth quarter GDP was growth at a 1.0% rate. Actual was growth at a 0.4% rate.
Gap Stores soared $5.50 to 30.90 after announcing plans to spin off its Old Navy division.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/clip_image0011.png "clip_image001[1]")
Nordstrom gained $0.97 to $48.25 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/clip_image0021.png "clip_image002[1]")
Michael's (MIK $) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan lowered its rating from Overweight to Neutral. Target was dropped to $15 from $18.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/clip_image0031.png "clip_image003[1]")
Foot Locker gained $7.74 to $67.26 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter sales and earnings.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/clip_image0041.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock's Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2019/02/28/stock-market-outlook-for-march-1-2019/
Observations
Short term momentum indicators (daily MACD, Stochastics, RSI) for broadly based U.S. equity indices have turned lower including the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite Index, Russell 2000 Index and Dow Jones Transportation Average. All have stalled at resistance levels set in early November.
Chile iShares are under unexpected, unknown technical pressure.
Update to a previous seasonal trade idea
South Korea iShares EWY were supported as a seasonal trade on January 24th on a breakout above $61.56 when a double bottom pattern was completed. Subsequently, units moved higher, but recently have stalled. Short term momentum indicators have turned down and relative strength has turned negative. Yesterday, the stock moved below its 20 and 200 day moving averages on news that North Korea/U.S. negotiations had collapsed. Accordingly, units no longer are favoured as a seasonal trade.
StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $LKQ $MNST $MA $MSCI $RSG. Breakdown: $CELG
Editor's Note: After 10:00 AM EST, breakouts included MSCI and RSG. Breakdowns included FTI, CI and NOV.
Cascades $CAS.CA moved below $9.15 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader's Corner.
Equity Indices and related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 28th 2019
![clip_image002[11]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/clip_image00211-1.png "clip_image002[11]")
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 28th 2019
![clip_image002[9]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/clip_image0029-4.png "clip_image002[9]")
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 27th 2019
![clip_image002[7]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/clip_image0027-5.png "clip_image002[7]")
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Josef Schachter on BNNBloomberg's Market Call
Top Picks
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/josef-schachter-s-top-picks~1623678
Past Picks
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/josef-schachter-s-top-picks~1623678
Alberta natural gas prices surge.
Brrrr, it's cold out there! During Market Call, Josef noted that AECO gas prices have surged. Since mid-January, they have more than doubled. Below is the data. Good for Canadian "gassy" stocks!
Alberta Natural Gas Prices – Prior Month
Date | Monthly Index | Daily Index |
1-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.54 |
2-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.13 |
3-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.51 |
4-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.60 |
5-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.60 |
6-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.60 |
7-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.76 |
8-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.90 |
9-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.68 |
10-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.58 |
11-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.51 |
12-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.51 |
13-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.51 |
14-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.88 |
15-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.90 |
16-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $2.11 |
17-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.92 |
18-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.91 |
19-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.91 |
20-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.91 |
21-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.91 |
22-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.89 |
23-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.89 |
24-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.87 |
25-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.90 |
26-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.90 |
27-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $1.90 |
28-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $2.04 |
29-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $2.09 |
30-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $2.17 |
31-Jan-19 | $1.61 | $2.35 |
Source: https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices?p=pricing-market.htm http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/ |
Alberta Natural Gas Prices – Current Month
Actual prices are based on a volume weighted average of transacted prices for all physically delivered natural gas at the Alberta AB-NIT market center (www.ngx.com). |
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
The Barometer slipped 1.00 to 91.00 yesterday. It remains extremely overbought.
![clip_image001[4]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/clip_image0014.png "clip_image001[4]")
TSX Momentum Barometer
The Barometer dropped another 2.95 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has rolled over.
![clip_image002[4]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/clip_image0024.png "clip_image002[4]")
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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