Tech Talk for Monday April 12th 2021

India ETF (PIN) moved below $23.36 and $23.84 setting an intermediate downtrend.

Vietnam ETF (VNM) moved above $18.75 extending an intermediate uptrend.

US Bancorp (USB), an S&P 100 stock moved above $57.61 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Bausch Health (BHC), a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$37.83 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

TCOM (TCOM), a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $36.15 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 12th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points in pre-opening trade.

Microsoft slipped $0.45 to $255.40 on news that the company is in advanced talks to purchase Nuance for near $16 billion.

Aphria slipped $0.13 to $20.36 after the company reported a larger than consensus third quarter loss.

Tesla (TSLA $) is expected to open higher after Canaccord Genuity upgraded the stock to Buy. Target price is $1071.

United Airlines eased $0.48 to 457.87 after the company reported less than consensus first quarter revenues and earnings.

EquityClock's Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2021/04/10/stock-market-outlook-for-april-12-2021/

Thank You

Thank you for support given to Tech Talk over the years by subscribers and contributors. Today, Tech Talk celebrates its 18th anniversary since launch of its free service for interested investors. (And always .. thanks to Jon Vialoux, whose vision and expertise in the development and management of the site allowed for our wish of Tech Talk to become a reality.)

The Bottom Line

North American equity indices were higher last week. The S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite reached all-time highs on Friday. Greatest influences on North American equity markets remain evidence of a possible third wave of the coronavirus (negative) and continued expansion of distribution of a vaccine (positive).

Observations

The S&P 500 Index continues to recover during its strongest eight week period of seasonal strength for the year from mid-March to the first week in May.

The third distribution of COVID 19 relief cheques by the U.S. government continues. The third distribution initiated in mid-March continues and is expected to trigger additional purchases of equities, Exchange Traded Funds and mutual funds.

Short term short term indicators for U.S. equity indices, commodities and sectors (20 day moving averages, short term momentum indicators) remained at elevated levels last week.

Intermediate term technical indicator for U.S. equity markets (e.g. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average) moved higher again last week. It remained Extremely Overbought. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Long term technical indicator for U.S. equity markets (e.g. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) also moved higher again last week. It remained Extremely Overbought. See chart at the end of this report.

Short term momentum indicators for Canadian indices and sectors also remained elevated last week

Medium term technical indicator for Canadian equity markets moved higher last week. It remained Overbought. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Long term technical indicator for Canadian equity markets (i.e. Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) also moved higher last week. It remained Overbought. See Barometer chart at the end of this report.

Consensus estimates for earnings by S&P 500 companies continued to increase last week. According to www.FactSet.com earnings in the first quarter of 2021 on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase 24.5% (versus previous estimate at 23.6% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 6.3%. Earnings in the second quarter are expected to increase 53.1% (versus previous estimate at 52.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 16.7%. Earnings in the third quarter are expected to increase 19.2% (versus previous estimate at 18.8%) and revenues are expected to increase 10.1%. Earnings in the fourth quarter are expected to increase 14.8% (versus previous estimate at 14.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 7.5%. Earnings for all of 2021 are expected to increase 26.3% (versus previous estimate at 25.9%) and revenues are expected to increase 9.7%.

Economic News This Week

March Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.4% in February. Excluding food and energy, March Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in February.

April Empire State Survey to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 18.20 from 17.40 in March.

April Philly Fed Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 43.0 to 51.8 in March.

March Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected increase 5.5% versus a drop of 3.0% in February. Excluding auto sales, March Retail Sales are expected to increase 4.8% versus a drop of 2.7% in February.

March Capacity Utilization to be released at 9:15 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 75.6 from 73.8 in February. March Industrial Production is expected to increase 2.8% versus a drop of 2.2% in February.

February Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in January.

March Canadian Housing Starts to be released at 8:15 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 250,000 units from 245,900 units in February.

March U.S. Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 1.600 million units from 1.421 million units in February.

April Michigan Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 88.9 from 84.9 in March.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Another 23 S&P 500 companies (including four Dow Jones Industrial Average companies) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Focus is on the U.S. Financial Services sector.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 9th 2021

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 9th 2021

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 9th 2021

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score -2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: -1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: -1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

Changes Last Week

Attention: CSTA Members

Jon Vialoux is giving an on-line presentation to the Winnipeg chapter of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts at 6:30 PM Central Daylight Time on Thursday April 15th. Focus is a combination of seasonal, technical and fundamental prospects for markets. Register at www.CSTA.org

Your Daily Five

Greg Schnell focuses on "Defense Breaking Out". Following is a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geWnHv_zoDU

Seasonal influences for the sector also are positive to mid-May.

Technical Scoop

Thank you to David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting for a link to their weekly comment. Following is the link:

Technical Notes for Friday

U.S. Financial SPDRs moved above $35.13 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

TSX Financials iShares (XFN) moved above $44.03 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Waste Connections (WCN), a TSX 60 stock moved above $143.54 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

UPS (UPS), an S&P 100 stock moved above $175.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday, but added 4.01 last week to 89.98. It remains Extremely Overbought.

The long term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday and 0.80 last week to 95.19. It remains Extremely Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometer

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.49 on Friday, but added 7.42 last week to 83.50. It changed from Overbought to Extremely Overbought on a move above 80.00.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.49 on Friday, but added 0.68 last week to 80.58. It changed from Overbought to Extremely Overbought on a move above 80.00.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed