Tech Talk for Monday July 21st 2025

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 13 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Verizon added $1.82 to $42.67 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results. The company also raised guidance.

Stellantis dropped $0.08 to $9.12 after warning about a $2.7 billion write down.

Microsoft dropped $0.75 to $509.30 after issuing an alert about "active attacks" on server software.

Cleveland Cliffs added $0.35 to $9.83 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for July 21st

Identifying the cues to look for to signal the start of the period of third quarter risk aversion and which areas of the market to focus on in portfolios presently. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/07/18/stock-market-outlook-for-july-21-2025/

The Bottom Line

Focuses this week are on second quarter earnings reports by major U.S. and Canadian companies. Look for additional surprisingly strong results relative to consensus!

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

The second quarter earnings season continues to surprise: 60 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date with 83% reporting earnings above consensus and with 83% reporting revenues above consensus.

Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter increased substantially last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains jumped to 5.6% from 4.8%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains increased to 4.4% from 4.2%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains increased to 7.4% from 7.3%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 4.9% from 4.8%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains increased to 6.8% from 6.5%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains increased to 5.4% from 5.3%.

For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 9.3% from 9.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.1% from 5.0%.

For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increase to 14.0% from 13.9%. Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.

Economic News This Week

June U.S. Leading Economic Indicators released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to drop 0.2% versus a 0.1% drop in May.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday

June U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 4.00 million units from 4.03 million units in May.

European Central Bank interest rate announced at 8:15 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to remain unchanged at 2.15%.

Canadian May Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 0.9% versus a 0.3% gain in April

June U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 651,000 from 623,000 in May.

June Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop 10.3% versus a 16.4% gain in May. Excluding transportation, Orders are expected to be unchanged versus a 0.5% gain in May.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 18th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 18th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 18th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for July 19th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Expect the S&P to reach 7,000 by year-end, says Sanctuary Wealth's Mary Ann Bartels

Expect the S&P to reach 7,000 by year-end, says Sanctuary Wealth's Mary Ann Bartels - YouTube

Dan Niles: Microsoft's AI Edge & Hidden Risks For Tech This Fall

Dan Niles: Microsoft's AI Edge & Hidden Risks For Tech This Fall - YouTube

Is There Anything to Hold Crypto's Back? Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/is-there-anything-to-hold-cryptos-back-mark-leibovit/

Consumer sentiment comes in at 61.8: Rick Santelli

Consumer sentiment comes in at 61.8 - YouTube

A short-term shake out is likely heading into August, says BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky

A short-term shake out is likely heading into August, says BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky - YouTube

US Total Stocks Rise 9.0 Mb/d Last Week And Total US Demand Fell 1.68 Mb/d To 19.2 Mb/d. Pressure On Crude Prices Increases: Josef Schachter

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/us-total-stocks-rise-9-0-mb-d-last-week-and-total-us-demand-fell-1-68-mb-d-to-19-2-mb-d-pressure-on-crude-prices-increases/

July Strength, Late-Summer Caution: 3 Charts to Watch

July Strength, Late-Summer Caution: 3 Charts to Watch | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com

Technical Notes

China Large Cap iShares (FXI) moved above $38.19 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Hong Kong iShares (EWH) moved above $20.41 to a three year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index (AORD) moved above 8,882.70 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Utilities SPDRs (XLU) lead U.S. equity indices on Friday by breaking to an all-time high.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday, but eased 0.40 last week to 68.00. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and dropped 1.80 last week to 60.60. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.82 on Friday and plunged 8.45 last week to 72.30. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.

The long term Barometer slipped 1.41 on Friday, but added 1.41 last week to 82.16. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.