Tech Talk for Monday July 7th 2025
Passage of "The One Beautiful Bill" by Congress late on Thursday and signed by President Trump on Friday is expected to set the stage for North American equity markets to move higher this week. The "Summer Rally" that frequently lasts until the end of July started last week.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Analyst estimates for 2025 beyond the first quarter were unchanged last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains remained at 5.0%. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.2%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains remained at 7.3%. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained at 4.7%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains remained at 6.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains remained at 5.2%.
For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth remained at 9.1%. Consensus for revenue gains returned to 5.0% from 4.9%.
For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth remained at 13.8%, Consensus for revenue gains remained at 6.3%.
Economic News This Week
FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday
Canada's June Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday
Selected Earnings News This Week
Thursday: Delta Airlines, Conagra, Levi Straus
Trader's Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 3rd 2025
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell's Money Talks for July 5th
Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Lower Oil Prices Good for Stock Market: Mark Leibovit
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/lower-oil-prices-good-for-stock-market-mark-leibovit/
Oil, Bitcoin, Gold, the S&P 500: What's Next for Markets? Valuetrendcanada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYerNQ63biQ
Q&A with Tom Lee : 2025 H2 U.S. Stock Strategy, All You Need in One Video | Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRMU_8gE-qg
What a $75B CIO is Buying Now | U.S. Stocks, Gold, AI & Rate Cuts Explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKRsxOJjOK4
Market Call: Rick Rule’s outlook on Natural Resource Stocks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Irxd2P_J2YI
Is This Rally Sustainable? You Better Bet Your Bullish Sweet Dollar It Is! Tom Bowley
Things to watch in the second half of 2025: Pierre Ouimet, UBS Canada
Things to watch in the second half of 2025 - YouTube
BRICS Digital Currency, Gold Standard: Bob Hoye
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/brics-digital-currency-gold-standard-bob-hoye/
Trading Desk Notes for July 5, 2025: Victor Adair
https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/trading-desk-notes-for-july-5-2025/
Technical Notes for Thursday and Friday
Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs (DIA) moved above $447.00 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. The Average has a history of moving higher from late June to the end of July. See: the seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) moved above $281.82 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. The ETF has a history of moving higher until the end of July. See:
The seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com
Lithium ETN (LIT) moved above $39.41 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Auto ETF (CARZ) moved above $62.43 and $61.72 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving above resistance and extending an intermediate uptrend included Apple, General Motors, Charles Schwab, Blackrock, ANSYS, and Cadence Design. All have favourable seasonality in the month of July. See: www.EquityClock.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.60 on Friday and gained 6.40 last week to 79.40. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 1.60 to 64.20 on Friday and gained 9.00 last week to 64.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.47 on Friday, but gained 3.28 last week to 86.85. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.47 on Friday and gained 7.63 last week to 83.1. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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