Tech Talk for Monday March 31st 2025

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 58 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a recession in the United States during the next 12 months from 20% to 35%.

World equity indices were lower overnight. The Nikkei Average dropped 1,502.77 to 35,617.56.

Tesla dropped $14.21 to $249.26 after Stifel lowered its target price from $474 to $455.

Boeing dropped $2.85 to $170.46. The company's revenue and earnings are expected to be impacted by tariffs that will increase the cost of imported parts included in new aircrafts.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for March 31st

While stocks are currently showing strain, one of the strongest months of the year for performance is directly ahead: The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.7% in April with a gain frequency of 72%. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/03/29/stock-market-outlook-for-march-31-2025/

Technical Scoop for March 31st from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Focus this week is on imposition of a 25% tariffs on goods imported into the United States to be announced officially by President Trump on Wednesday April 2nd. Growing political uncertainty related to the tariffs and likely counter tariffs were a major reason for weakness in North American equity indices last week. Leading the weakness was the Technology sector on a drop to a seven month low.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained elevated at 22 indicating "Extreme Fear". See

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Major North American equity indices are expected to test their March 13th lows early this week. Their lows are 5,504.65 for the S&P 500, 40,661.77 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 17,239.44 for the NASDAQ Composite Index and 24,145.59 for the TSX Composite Index.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 recorded modest changes last week. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.3 % increase on a year-over-year basis, up from 7.1% last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth remained at 4.2%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains slipped to 9.3% from 9.4% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.6%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains slipped to 11.9% from 12.0% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained unchanged at 5.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains remained at 11.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains remained at 6.0%.

For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 11.5%, up from an 11.4% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged at 5.4%.

Earnings gains are expected to accelerate into 2026. Consensus calls for a 14.3% earnings gain, up from 14.2% last week. Consensus for revenue gains remained unchanged at 6.5%.

Economic News This Week

February U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus -0.2% in January.

March ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to drop to 49.6 from 50.3 in February

February U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a 1.7% increase in January.

February Canadian Merchandise Trade Surplus released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to a $3.40 billion from $3.97 billion in January.

March ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 53.0 from 53.5 in February.

March Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 139,000 from 151,000 in February. March Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% in February. March Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3%, unchanged from February.

March Canadian Employment Change released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 9,900 from 1,100 in February.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Quiet week: Three S&P 500 companies on Thursday and one TSX 60 companies on Wednesday.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 28th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 28th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 28th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for March 31st

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Market Uncertainty Powering Gold to Record Highs: Mark Leibovit

Market Uncertainty Powering Gold to Record Highs - HoweStreet

Energy Reality Check: Oil Rebounds, LNG Canada Launch & U.S. Shale Weakness | Eric Nuttall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vl3wQ4EoSsU

4 Reasons to Avoid Buying Stocks on Fridays: ValueTrendCanada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAjVJkRV9Zw

Keep Buying Stocks, Says Wall Street Bull Brian Belski of BMO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwv6hgxHm7M

Bear Flag Alert: David Keller

Bear Flag Alert – Downside S&P 500 Target Update | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

Is Canada Joining the USA a Good Idea? Bob Hoye

Is Canada Joining the USA a Good Idea? - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes for March 29, 2025 Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes for March 29, 2025 - HoweStreet

Technical Notes for Friday

Technology SPDRs $XLK moved below $205.93 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Technology stocks dominated the list of stocks breaking intermediate support on Friday. S&P 100 stocks and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support setting intermediate downtrends included Illumina (ILMN) on a move below $80.18, Microchip Technology (MCHP) on a move below $172.62, Applied Materials (AMAT) on a move below $145.37, ON Semiconductor (ON) on a move below $41.59, PayPal (PYPL)on a move below $66.34, Trimble (TRMB) on a move below $65.75, Meta Platforms (META) on a move below $574.66, Salesforce.com (CRM) on a move below $269.75 and Palo Alto Networks (PANW)on a move below $172.62

Auto ETF $CARZ moved below $54.73 and $54.13 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responded to Tariff news announced by President Trump on Thursday!

Metro $MRU.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$97.25 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.60 on Friday but added 0.60 last week to 35.20. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer dropped 4.40 on Friday and was unchanged last week at 42.80. It remains Neutral.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.42 on Friday and dropped 2.73 last week to 50.00.It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer dropped 1.38 on Friday and 0.96 last week to 55.96. It remains Neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed