Tech Talk for Monday November 18th 2024

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 6 points at 8:30 AM EST.

Morgan Stanley raised its 2025 target price for the S&P 500 Index to 7,400.

Tesla added $21.27 to $341.93 on news that the Trump team plans to create rules for self-driving cars.

Nvidia dropped $3.15 to $138.83 on concerns that its new Blackwell chip tends to overheat.

Super Micro Computer added $2.50 to $21.08 on expectation that the company shortly will file corporate data to avoid a delisting.

EquityClock's Stock Market Outlook for November 18th

Consumer activity perked up in October, but discretionary spending was not the focus. See

https://equityclock.com/2024/11/16/stock-market-outlook-for-november-18-2024/

Technical Scoop by David Chapman and

     www.EnrichedInvesting.com for November 18th

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday, capping off the worst week for the S&P 500 since early September, as creeping doubts about a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve helped interrupt a postelection rally.

Earnings focuses this week are on Wal-Mart reporting on Tuesday and Nvidia reporting on Wednesday.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Frequency of third quarter corporate reports continued to wind down. Ninety three percent (465 companies) have reported to date. Results prompted analysts to lower slightly their third quarter earnings estimate. Consensus calls for a 5.3% year-over-year earnings increase (down from 5.4% last week) and a 5.5% year-over-year revenue increase.

Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter, but at a slightly lower rate. Consensus calls for a 12.1% earnings increase (down from 12.2% last week) and a 4.8% revenue increase.

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.3% earnings increase (down from 9.4% last week) and a 5.0% revenue increase (down from 5.1% last week)

Consensus for earnings gains in the first half of 2025 remains elevated, but at a slightly lower rate. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.1 % on a year-over-year basis (down from 12.7% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.2% (down from 5.3% last week). Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.0% (up from 11.9% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.5%.

Earnings gains are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025.For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 15.0% (up from 14.8% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%.

Economic News This Week

U.S. October Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to slip to 1.340 million units from 1.354 million units in September

Canadian October Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday

November Philly Fed is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday

U.S. October Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 3.88 million units from 3.84 million units in September

U.S. October Leading Economic Indicators are released at10:00 AM EST on Thursday

Canadian September Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in August.

November Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 73.0 from 70.5 in October.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 15th 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 15th 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 15th 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Notes

Oil and Gas Exploration and Production SPDRs $XOP moved above $142.42 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Bank of America $BAC an S&P 100 stock moved above $46.57 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below support extending intermediate downtrends on Friday included Eli Lilly, McDonald's, Kraft Heinz, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Thermo Fisher, Merck, Regeneron, Applied Materials, KLA Ltd and Lam Research

Changes Last Week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for November 16th

November 16 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Case for 30% Market Sell-Off, Fed’s December Rate Cut in Question: Schwab Network

Case for 30% Market Sell-Off, Fed’s December Rate Cut in Question - YouTube

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 11/15/24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzIkJgCulic

Macro Trends and Market Risks: Marko Kolanovic's Post-Election Outlook

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51LI8Je1Pv4

This Industry Just Broke Out And Is Poised To Lead U.S. Equities Higher: Tom Bowley

This Industry Just Broke Out And Is Poised To Lead U.S. Equities Higher | Trading Places with Tom Bowley | StockCharts.com

Why the Fed Doesn't Have Your Back: Bob Hoye

Why the Fed Doesn't Have Your Back - HoweStreet

Even With Trump, Stock Markets Will Make Corrections: Mark Leibovit

Even With Trump, Stock Markets Will Make Corrections - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes for November 16, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes for November 16, 2024 - HoweStreet

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.00 on Friday and plunged 10.40 last week to 55.00. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.

The long term Barometer dropped 3.40 on Friday and 6.00 last week to 68.60. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.45 on Friday and plunged 13.80 last week to 49.55. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday

The long term Barometer dropped 1.36 on Friday and 7.38 last week to 69.09. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended on Friday.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed