Tech Talk for Monday November 3rd 2025

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 16 points at 8:30 AM EST.

December crude oil futures advanced $0.34 to $61.32 per barrel after OPEC+ announced plans to pause oil output hikes in the first quarter of 2026 following a modest boost in December.

New Gold is expected to open higher after Coeur Mining offered to acquire the company for 0.4959 Coeur shares. Value of the offer is US$8.51 (Cdn$11.95).

Kenvue advanced $2.74 to $17.11 after Kimberly Clark offered to acquire the company in a deal valued at $48.7 billion.

Iren gained $12.95 to $73.70 after signing a $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for November 3rd

The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 2.1% in November over the past 50 years with 74% of periods showing a positive result. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/11/01/stock-market-outlook-for-november-3-2025/

Technical Scoop for November 3rd from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Will U.S. and Canadian indices follow their traditional pattern of moving higher this year from November until the first week in January (i.e. the so called Christmas rally season)?

Performance this year in the U.S. has been dominated by the top 10 U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index with their heavy weight in the Technology sector. The qualification this year is that positive performance by the top ten S&P 500 stocks (Over 55% of the weight in the S&P 500 Index) must continue this November/early January for history to repeat.

What about performance of the remaining 490 stocks in the S&P 500 Index? History shows that the equal weight S&P 500 Index ETF (RSP) also has a period of seasonal strength from November to the first week in January. However, its performance depends upon advances by the remaining 490 stocks.

Recent performance by the equal weight S&P 500 Index and related ETF (RSP) has been less than spectacular: Indeed, RSP broke below its 20 and 50 day moving averages late last week. The ETF closed on Friday below closing levels set in the third week in August.

Early technical weakness by Sector SPDRs other than Technology SPDRs (XLK) raises doubts about possibility of a significant yearend rally this year. Indeed, several select sector SPDRs recorded a drop in technical score last week including Materials, Industrials, Financials, Health Care and Real Estate.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased significantly again last week thanks to "blow out" earnings released by Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon: 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date: 83% exceeded consensus earnings estimates and 79% exceeded consensus revenue estimates.

• Consensus for third quarter 2025 earnings gains advanced to 10.7% from 9.2% from the previous week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth increased to 7.9% from 7.0%.
• Consensus for fourth quarter 2025 earnings increased to 7.6% from7.4%. Revenue growth increased to 6.6% from 6.5%. For all of 2025, consensus for earnings growth increased to 11.2% from 11.0%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 6.6% from 6.3%.
• Consensus for first quarter 2026 earnings growth slipped to 11.8% from 11.9%. Consensus for revenue gains increased to 7.4% from 7.2%.
• Consensus for second quarter 2026 earnings growth remained at 12.8%. Consensus for revenue growth remained at 6.4%.
• For all of 2026, consensus for earnings growth increased to 14.0% from 13.9%. Consensus for revenue growth increased to 6.8% from 6.6%.

Economic News This Week

U.S. economic data provided by the U.S. Federal Government is unavailable until the current shutdown is concluded.

Canada's September Trade Report is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday

Selected Earnings News This Week

Another 136 S&P 500 companies (including two Dow Jones Industrial companies: Pfizer and McDonald's) are scheduled to report this week. Another 14 TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report. TSX 60 companies are indicated as bold.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 31st 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 31st 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 31st 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Technical Notes for Friday

Materials SPDRs (XLB) moved below $85.61 completing a double top pattern.

Retail SPDRs (XRT) moved below $80.88 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Amazon (AMZN) moved above $238.85 and $242.52 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Ilumina (ILMN) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $111.00 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

McKesson (MKC) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $63.22 extending an intermediate downtrend.

DexCom (DXCM) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $63.19 and $57.52extending an intermediate downtrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for November 1st

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Stock Pullback Expected After Big Surge: Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/10/stock-pullback-expected-after-big-surge-mark-leibovit/

This Week in Markets: Ross Clark, Martin Armstrong

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/11/stock-markets-gold-silver-rare-earths-ukraine-russia-peace-martin-armstrong-ross-clark-this-week-in-money/

Falling Rates, Rising Profits, and a Relentless Tech Rally: Tom Bowley

Falling Rates, Rising Profits, and a Relentless Tech Rally - YouTube

Canada’s August GDP falls 0.3% month-over-month: BNN

Canada’s August GDP falls 0.3% month-over-month - YouTube

A "Blow-Off Top" Ahead? Goldman Sachs

A "Blow-Off Top" Ahead? - YouTube

How Much Could Stock Market Lose When Bubble Bursts? Bob Hoye

How Much Could Stock Market Lose When Bubble Bursts? - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes for November 1, 2025: Victor Adair

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/11/trading-desk-notes-for-november-1-2025/

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 0.60 on Friday and 12.00 last week to 41.00. It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer added 0.40 on Friday and dropped 8.80 last week to 56.00. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 5.63 on Friday and dropped 9.86 last week to 60.09. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer added 1.41 on Friday and dropped 3.76 last week to 80.28. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed