Tech Talk for Monday September 11th 2023

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 22 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Hostess Foods advanced $4.19 to an all-time high at $32.30 on news that Smucker is close to a deal to buy the company.

Tesla advanced $15.83 to $264.33 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight. Target price was raised to $400.

Oracle added $1.50 to an all-time high at $127.82 prior to reporting first quarter results later today.

Kenvue gained $0.65 to $21.95 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

EquityClock's Daily Comment

Headline reads "The surge of Canadian unemployment this year is reminiscent of an economic recession".

https://equityclock.com/2023/09/09/stock-market-outlook-for-september-11-2023/

The Bottom Line

Lots of "noise" bothering North American equity markets this week!

• Possible autoworker strikes in Canada and U.S. starting September 14th. Bargaining positions between the union and companies remain wide.
• Possible shut down of the U.S. government by Congress if unable to reach a deficit limit agreement before the end of September. The House of Representative returns from holidays today facing 12 legislative bills that need urgent approval. Most important bill is extension of the U.S. government debt ceiling limit. Financial differences on the bill between conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats are substantial. Chance of at least a short term shut down of the U.S. government before the end of the month is higher than usual. If an agreement is not reached quickly, U.S. government debt temporarily may default, its debt rating will be reduced (again), government employees, social benefits recipients and the military will not receive salary and social assistance payments and Federal government services will shut down.
• Continuation of hurricane season. One of the strongest hurricanes in recent history (possible a category 5 with winds greater than 150 mph) is moving toward the U.S. mainland. Chances are good that the hurricane will start moving to the north instead of into the Gulf of Mexico, but likely will disrupt economic activity along the U.S. East Coast. At worst, it could move into the New York/ Boston corridor as well as into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland where destruction could be significant.
• Disturbing economic news. The August Consumer Price report this Wednesday and the Producer Price Index report this Thursday are expected to raise concerns by the Federal Reserve that recent declines in annual inflation toward its 2% target have stalled. Indeed, consensus for CPI and PPI in the month of August is predicting an increase from July. If so, enthusiasm for equity prices likely will be dampened until after the next FOMC announcement on interest rates on September 20th.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies

Source: www.Factset.com

Consensus estimates for remainder of 2023 were unchanged last week. Consensus for the third quarter is an earnings increase on a year-over-year basis of 0.5%. Third quarter revenues are expected to increase 1.6%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 8.2%.. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 3.7%. For all of 2023, consensus calls for an earnings increase of 1.2%. Revenues are expected to increase 2.4%.

The recovery in earnings continues into 2024. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis is an earnings increase of 8.6% and a revenue increase of 4.7%. Consensus for the second quarter is an earnings increase of 12.1% and a revenue increase of 5.5%. Consensus for all of 2024 is a 12.2% earnings increase (versus previous estimate at 12.0%) and a 5.6% revenue increase (versus a previous estimate at 5.5% increase).

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

August Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. On a year-over-year basis, August CPI is expected to increase 3.6% versus a gain of 3.2% in July. Excluding food and energy, August CPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. On a year-over-year basis, August core CPI is expected to increase 4.3% versus a gain of 4.7% in July.

European Central Bank interest rate decision is released at 8:15 AM EDT on Thursday. Consensus calls for no change at 4.25%.

August Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in July. On a year-over-year basis, August PPI is expected to increase 1.2% versus a gain of 0.8% in July. Excluding food and energy, August PPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in July. On a year-over-year basis, August core PPI is expected to 2.2% versus a gain of 2.4% in July.

August U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.7% in July. Excluding auto sales, August U.S. retail sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 1.0% in July.

July Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus no change in July

September Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to improve to -10.00 from -19.00 in August

August Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from July at 79.3. August Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 1.0% in July.

September Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 69.2 from 69.5 in August.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 8th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 8th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 8th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score -2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: -1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: -1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

Changes Last Week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for September 9th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Crucial Insights: How Rising Rates IMPACT You! | The Final Bar (09.07.23)

Crucial Insights: How Rising Rates IMPACT You! | The Final Bar (09.07.23) - YouTube

Fed will skip September hike, says JPMorgan Asset Management’s Kelsey Berro

Fed will skip September hike, says JPMorgan Asset Management’s Kelsey Berro - YouTube

Recession probability been rising in recent months, says Abby Joseph Cohen

Recession probability been rising in recent months, says Abby Joseph Cohen - YouTube

Electric Vehicles, Cryptos, Geo-cosmic, Solar Flares. Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2023/09/crude-oil-us-dollar-gold-interest-rates-bitcoin-mark-leibovit/

Which is More Likely — SPX Over 4600 or Below 4200? SEPTEMBER 08, David Keller

Which is More Likely — SPX Over 4600 or Below 4200? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

Major Tech Group Turns Negative | The MEM Edge (09.08.23)

Major Tech Group Turns Negative | The MEM Edge (09.08.23) - YouTube

5 Charts Showing Promising Uptrends! | Your Daily Five (09.08.23

5 Charts Showing Promising Uptrends! | Your Daily Five (09.08.23) - YouTube

September 8, 2023 | China's Economy, US Dollar, Gold, Interest Rates, Bonds: Bob Hoye

China's Economy, US Dollar, Gold, Interest Rates, Bonds - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes For September 9, 2023: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes For September 9, 2023 - HoweStreet

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Iffy-markets-seminal-events-surprising-jobs-languishing-gold-rising-energy.pdf

Links offered by Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com

RH Has Big 2024 in Store for Patient Investors. – Uncommon Sense Investor

U.S.A. vs. Google. What’s at Stake? Three Potential Scenarios. – Uncommon Sense Investor

Technical Notes for Friday

Aerospace & Defense ETF $PPA moved below $82.28 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Canadian Pacific $CP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$105.40 extending an intermediate downtrend.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate Barometer was unchanged on Friday and dropped 12.60 last week to 35.00. It returned to Oversold from Neutral on a drop below 40.00.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.40 and dropped 8.80 last week to 50.20. It remains Neutral. Daily trend is down.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.66 on Friday and plunged 16.55 last week to 42.04. It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.23 on Friday and dropped 6.40 last week to 48.23. It remains Neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed