Tech Talk for Thursday March 1st 2018

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are waiting for testimony before congress on monetary policy by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

Index futures recovered slightly following release of U.S. economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 230,000 versus a revised 220,000 last week. Actual was 210,000. Consensus for January Personal Income was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. Consensus for January Personal Spending was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.2%.

Toronto Dominion (TD $74.00) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. The Bank also increased its dividend.

Husky Energy (HSE $16.94) is expected to open higher after reinitiating a dividend.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ $39.75) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results. The company also increased its dividend.

Kohl's added $0.41 to $66.50 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results..

Best Buy gained $3.70 to $76.14 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.

Jon Vialoux's EquityClock Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/02/28/stock-market-outlook-for-march-1-2018/

Note seasonality charts on S&P 500 Index (50 years), Financial sector, REIT Index, Natural Gas, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Crude Oil

Equity Market Call by Colin Cieszynski

Colin offered his outlook on BNN this morning. Following is a link:

https://www.bnn.ca/video/watching-for-deals-in-energy-but-it-s-too-early-to-buy-strategist~1337432

Observations

First, the bad news! Automated computer selling click into North American equity markets during the last two hours of trading yesterday. The VIX spiked from 18% to over 20%. Broadly based North American equity indices broke below their 20 day moving average.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks turned decidedly bearish. Between 9:45 AM EST and 3:00 PM EST, technical action already was showing a bearish tone. Breakouts included AAPL and ADSK. Breakdowns included LEN HM, WHR, KMI, CELG, ALB and PPL. After 2:00 PM, breakdowns included DISH, GM, PG, OXY, AIG, HCP, NAVI, AGN, FBHS and CHTR.

And now the good news! North American equity markets historically have moved higher from the beginning of March to early May. This period is the second strongest period for equity markets during the year (The strongest period is from mid-October to the first week in January).

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 9:45 AM EST: Quiet. Breakout: $TJX. Breakdowns: $DHI $LOW

Home construction ETF $ITB moved below $38.46 extending an intermediate downtrend. Individual breakdowns: $LEN $PHM $DHI

Kinder Morgan $KMI moved below $16.57 and $16.56 extending an intermediate downtrend. Not a good sign for the TransMountain Pipe expansion!

Apple $AAPL, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $179.37 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Valeant $VRX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $20.96on lower than consensus quarterly results extending an intermediate downtrend.

Laurentian Bank $LB.CA moved below $51.26 following fiscal first quarter results extending an intermediate downtrend.

Enbridge $ENB.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $41.36 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Change in Gasoline Inventories rising above seasonal average as demand in the latest week falls. $UGA $USO $XLE

Canada Industrial product price index higher by 0.3% in January, marginally below average increase for month of 0.4%. #CDNecon #CAD $MACRO

Trader's Corner

Editor's Note: Lots of breaks below the 20 day moving average yesterday

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 28th 2018

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 28th 2018

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 28th 2018

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P Momentum Barometer

The Barometer plunged 5.61 to 38.88 yesterday. It has declined to slightly intermediate oversoldl.

TSX Momentum Barometer

The barometer plunged 6.50 to 25.20 yesterday. It has returned to significantly intermediate oversold.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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