Tech Talk for Tuesday January 16th 2024
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 14 points at 8:35 AM EST.
U.S. equity index futures increased 6 points following release of the January Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an improvement to -7.10 from -14.50 in December. Actual was -43.7.
The Canadian Dollar added 0.14 to US74.32 cents following release of Canada's December Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a year-over-year increase of 3.4% versus a gain of 3.1% in December. Actual was an increase of 3.4%. Consensus for core CPI was an increase of 3.4%. Actual was an increase of 3.7%.
Tesla dropped $3.38 to $215.51 after Elon Musk notified the company that he wants to increase his position in the company from 13% to 25% before adding an Artificial Intelligence function to its vehicles.
Boeing dropped $4.45 to $213.25 after deliveries of 737 Max aircraft to China were further delayed.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/clip_image0021-3.png "clip_image002[1]")
Alcoa dropped $0.48 to $29.55 after UBS initiated coverage with a Sell recommendation.
The Bottom Line
Here come fourth quarter 2023 results by S&P 500 companies! Responses to results released to date have been mixed/ slightly negative. Stocks that moved higher last week following release of results included Blackrock, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon. Stocks that moved lower included KB Homes, Delta Airlines, UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Analysts lowered fourth quarter earnings 2023 estimates slightly last week, but maintained their outlook for accelerating gains in 2024
Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 were reduced slightly. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 0.1% on a year-over-year basis (versus previous increase last week of 1.3%). Estimate for fourth quarter revenues was reduced to a gain of 2.8% from a gain of 3.1% last week.
The earnings recovery first surfaces in the first quarter of 2024, but at a slightly lower than previous rate. Consensus for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 5.7 % (versus previous increase of 6.0%) and a revenue increase of 4.0% (versus previous increase of 4.1%).
Earnings gains accelerate thereafter to the end of 2024, but at a slower pace. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 10.2% earnings increase (versus previous increase at 10.6%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues. Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.3% increase in earnings (versus previous increase of 8.6%) and a 5.2% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.3% increase). Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 19.8% increase in earnings (versus previous increase of 19.0%) and a 6.0% increase in revenues (versus previous increase of 5.8%). For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.8% increase in earnings and a 5.5% increase in revenues.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
U.S. equity markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.
January Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to improve to -7.10 from -14.50 in December
Canadian December Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday
December U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in November
December U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to slip to 78.6% from 78.8% in November. December Industrial Production is expected to decrease 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in November.
Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday
December U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
January Philly Fed is released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday
Canadian November Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 0.7% in October.
December U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to remain unchanged from November at 3.82 million units.
January Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 68.8 from 69.7
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Six percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date. Another 23 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release results this week (including two Dow Jones Industrial Average companies) No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report this week.
Trader's Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Jan.12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Jan 12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Jan.12th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score -2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: -1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: -1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes from Friday
UnitedHealth Group $UNH a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $515.87 completing a Head & Shoulder pattern.
Cognizant $CTSH a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $76.85 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Cameco $CCO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $63.12 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Strength in Cameco was the main reason why the Uranium ETF $URA moved to an 11 year high.
BCE $BCE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$55.06 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Cenovus Energy $CVE.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$21.02 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Links offered by Valued Providers
SPOT ETFs APPROVED!! The Technical Case for Bitcoin: David Keller
SPOT ETFs APPROVED!! The Technical Case for Bitcoin - YouTube
Strategist Who Called 2023 Stock Market Rally Gives 2024 Outlook | On The Tape Investing Podcast
From Selloff to Surge: Growth Stocks Rebound After CPI: David Keller
From Selloff to Surge: Growth Stocks Rebound After CPI - YouTube
S&P 4300 by End of February? David Keller
S&P 4300 by End of February? | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
XLV’s Record Rally: The Must-Know Investment Move of the Year
Dramatic Bearish Bias Shift on Major Market Indexes This Week
Dramatic Bearish Bias Shift on Major Market Indexes This Week | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com
Mike' Money Talks for January 13th 2024
January 13th Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Sprott Gold Report: Gold Mining Stocks, A Clear and Compelling Investment Case
Sprott Gold Report: Gold Mining Stocks, A Clear and Compelling Investment Case
Bob Hoye Jan 12, 2024: Bitcoin ETF, Gold and Gold Juniors
Bitcoin ETF, Gold and Gold Juniors - HoweStreet
Mark Leibovit Jan 11, 2024: Bitcoin vs. Gold
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
Intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday and dropped 4.20 last week to 84.00. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned down.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.20 on Friday and dropped 1.80 last week to 75.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend has turned down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.00 on Friday and gained 5.34 last week to 75.56. It remains Overbought. High was set on December 29th at 76.89.
The long term Barometer added 2.67 on Friday and gained 4.44 last week to 62.22. It changed last week from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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