Tech Talk for Tuesday July 8th 2025

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday July 8th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 6 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Exxon Mobil dropped $0.31 to $110.80 after issuing a profit warning for the second quarter due to lower crude oil and natural gas prices.

Capital One added $1.87 to $220.00 after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy.

Bank of America dropped $0.96 to $47.70 after HSBC downgraded the stock

Advanced Micro Devices added $2.37 to $137.17 after Citigroup upgraded the stock

EquityClock's Market Outlook for July 8th

On the lookout for evidence of risk aversion heading into the period of volatility for stocks. See: https://equityclock.com/2025/07/07/stock-market-outlook-for-july-8-2025/

Technical Notes

Global Silver Equity ETF (SIL) moved above $49.43 to a 12 year high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are strongly favourable on a real and relative basis from the end of June to the end of August (Average gain per period during the past 15 years was 7.3%). See www.EquityClock.com for seasonality chart. Also available in Canadian Dollars through HUZ.TO!

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 7th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July7th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 7th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Tech Talk on "Wolf on Bay Street"

Don Vialoux was a guest on "Wolf on Bay Street" on Saturday on Corus 640 Radio. Topic was "2025 second half outlook for North American equity markets". Following are notes forwarded to Wolfgang Klein and Jack Hardill prior to the interview:

2025 Second Half Outlook for North American Equity Markets

North American equity markets closely are following their post U.S. Presidential election year trend set by the four year U.S. Presidential Cycle:

• A mixed trend in the first quarter, followed by
• A strong upside move from the beginning of April until the end of July, followed by
• A correction lasting until late September, followed by
• A strong upside move lasting until at least the end of the year (and potentially until April 2026). Gains during this period are prompted by consensus for a 9.1% increase by S&P 500 company earnings in 2025 and a 13.8% increase in 2026. Earnings gains by major Canadian companies during this period are expected to follow the U.S. trend.

Surprisingly strong second quarter revenues and earnings reported by S&P 500 companies are expected to prompt strength in North American equity indices until the end of July. Consensus for second quarter earnings by S&P 500 companies calls only for a 5.0% year-over-year increase. Stock prices on both sides of the border are expected to benefit from:

• Pre-buying in Canada and the U.S. of manufactured products prior to expected implementation of tariffs by the U.S. in the third quarter (e.g. CARZ).
• The sale of manufactured products into international markets at higher prices. Rising currencies outside of the U.S. and Canada will prompt a significant currency benefit in the second quarter: The Euro relative to the U.S. Dollar advanced 9.0% and the Yen relative to the U.S. Dollar advanced 4.2% since the beginning of April.
• The sale by Canadian and U.S. base metals and precious metals production at higher prices: Since April 1st the U.S. Dollar Index has dropped 6.7% while copper prices have gained 25.0%, gold prices have advanced 5.4% and silver prices have jumped 21%.

A word of caution! Surprisingly strong corporate revenues and earnings gains in 2025 are expected to be "front end loaded" in the second quarter prior to implementation of tariffs. Analysts likely will lower consensus estimates after second quarter results are released. Chances of at least a shallow correction by North American equity markets beyond the "summer rally" in July are high.

Ultimately, the "noise" prompted by tariffs in the third quarter will dissipate. Earnings and revenue gains by North American companies will recover and equity indices will resume their traditional move higher. Weakness by North American equity prices into fall will provide a new buying opportunity.

Links offered by valued providers

Bull Market Accelerates, What Comes Next? Tom Bowley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8IzpPKchi8

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – July 5, 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ8np4CkPFI

David Rosenberg's comments on fake financial scam videos

The rise of AI: Rosenberg speaks out on fake financial scam (bnnbloomberg.ca)

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.80 to 74.60. It remains Overbought.

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.80 to 60.40. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.41 to 85.45. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer dropped 3.29 to 79.81. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.