In one of my favorite movies, Braveheart, King Edward I muses:
"The French will grovel to anyone with strength, but how will they believe our strength when we cannot rule the whole of our own island?"
His point was simple...
If we can't reign in a renegade province at home, how can we project strength to the rest of the world?
Well, China feels the same way about Taiwan.
To them, Taiwan is and always will be a part of China. And they can't show the world they're a serious global power, much less the preeminent global power, if they can't corral and consolidate their own territory.
And so the clock is ticking on Taiwan.
Essentially, we have until 2027.
That's the supposed timeline laid out by Xi Jinping, who this week embarked on his third term as president of the People's Republic of China, making him the longest-tenured ruler since Chairman Mao.
Like Mao, Xi wants to present to the world an alternative form of government - one superior to democracy and to capitalism. He aims to deliver a socialist utopia, a well-oiled machine that sets the bar economically, politically, and militarily.
That means global projection.
It means Chinese ships sailing the Atlantic. It means Chinese products and culture inundating foreign countries the same way McDonald's, iPhones, and rap have found purchase overseas.
It means icon status.
And it starts at home. Or rather, China's home away from home, Taiwan.
China must win "local wars," Xi said at China's historic 20th party congress.
Said Xi:
The wheels of history are rolling on toward China's reunification and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved and can definitely be achieved... We will work faster to modernize military theory, personnel, and weapons. We will enhance the military's strategic capabilities.
This isn't new, of course. It's an effort that's been underway for decades.
In fact, most people don't know this, but China's navy actually is bigger than ours.
As of the end of 2020, China had 360 active ships (that we know about), over 60 more than the U.S. Navy.
This is because the communist country has been extremely effective at marshaling its resources and building out manufacturing capacity.
China is the world's biggest shipbuilder and it's not even close. The country controls 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons. South Korea is second with 25%.
With this capacity, China built more warships in one year of peacetime in 2019 than the U.S. did over the entire course of World War II.