Tin: Not ready to join the party

Unmoved by the macro

LME tin edged 0.6% lower last week to close at $18,940 per tonne as of September 21, the only LME base metal to end in negative territory. In contrast, the LMEX made a gain of 5.1% over the corresponding period. While the underperformance of tin to its complex seems surprising, it is in line with our work. Last week, the broad-based rebound in industrial metals was mainly driven by a positive change in the macro backdrop, namely expectations for China’s fiscal stimulus to combat the negative effects stemming from the latest US trade tariffs. But since tin exhibits the weakest macro-sensitivity among the base metals because financial players prefer to user other assets with better liquidity conditions (like copper)...