TREASURIES-U.S. Treasury yields increase on supply worries

By Kitco News / February 20, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

* U.S. sells $28 bln 2-year notes to lukewarm demand

* U.S. 5-year yield hits near 8-year peak before supply

* Traders await Fed Jan 30-31 minutes on rate-hike clues

* Wall Street losses stoke safe-haven bids for bonds


(Updates late market action on Wall Street losses)

By Richard Leong

NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday with the benchmark 10-year yield hovering near a four-year peak as investors made room for this week's deluge of $258 billion of government debt supply.

The Treasury Department has ramped up its borrowing on the open market in anticipation of a higher deficit from last year's major tax overhaul and a two-year budget deal that will increase federal spending over the next two years.

The government is also relying more on private investors to buy its debt as the Federal Reserve has pared its Treasury purchases in a bid to shrink its $4.4 trillion balance sheet.

"Supply is very, very heavy this week," said Mary Anne Hurley, vice president of fixed income at D.A. Davidson in Seattle. "Auction sizes will become bigger, bigger this year."

Tuesday's wave of supply, which comprised of $151 billion in bills and $28 billion in two-year fixed-rate notes, fetched mixed reception from investors.

In light of the recent market volatility, some investors may be drawn to these short-dated Treasuries as safe havens, analysts said.

A sell-off on Wall Street with the Dow falling 1 percent fed some safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Still, concerns about more rate hikes from the Fed and the possibility of further increases in federal borrowing may keep a lid on demand at this week's auctions, they said.

"I suspect, however, that when the next economic downturn eventually comes, tax receipts fall, and the deficit widens that Treasury spreads will widen further," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

Analysts are wary of the remaining Treasury supply for this week: $35 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and $29 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday .

Medium-term Treasuries were hit hard last week following stronger-than-forecast inflation data that stoked bets the Fed may increase rates at a faster pace. The Treasury will also sell $15 billion in two-year floating-rate notes on Thursday. Moreover, investors await the U.S. central bank's minutes on its Jan. 30-31 policy meeting, which are due for release at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Wednesday. They may contain clues on policy-makers' view on future rate increases.


The 10-year Treasury yield was 2.888 percent, up 1.1 basis points from late on Friday. It reached 2.944 percent last week, a four-year peak.

The two-year yield was 2.223 percent, 3.4 basis points higher than late Friday, while the five-year yield was up nearly 2 basis points at 2.643 percent after touching 2.689 percent, the highest since April 2010.

U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. February 20 Tuesday 3:33PM New York / 2033 GMT

PriceUS T BONDS MAR8 143-30/32-9/32 10YR TNotes MAR8 120-136/256-2/32

PriceCurrent Net

Yield % Change

(bps)Three-month bills 1.58 1.60790.000Six-month bills 1.79 1.83090.000Two-year note 99-148/256 2.22290.034Three-year note 99-140/256 2.40820.022Five-year note 98-196/256 2.64290.017Seven-year note 98-8/256 2.814 0.01010-year note 98-208/256 2.88770.01130-year bond 97-24/2563.15050.016

YIELD CURVE Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps) 10-year vs 2-year yield 66.30-1.85 30-year vs 5-year yield 50.600.55DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS

Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap26.50 0.00spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap21.25 0.50spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap10.00 0.25spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap1.25-0.25spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap-16.75-1.25spread


<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC: U.S. Treasury bill, short-to-medium term debt supply COLUMN-After biggest short, speculators slash bearish US bond bets as supply deluge looms: McGeever ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Lisa Shumaker)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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