UK inflation data could provide signpost to upcoming Bank of England rate hikes

By Jon Hopkins / March 19, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

February UK inflation numbers will be the centre of attention on Tuesday as traders seek clues for when the next Bank of England interest rate hike could be forthcoming ahead of its latest Monetary Policy decision on Thursday.

The UK consumer price index has stayed stubbornly high over the past few months, having been widely predicted to fall back towards the end of last year.

Instead inflation rose to 3.1% in November and stood at 3.0% in both December and January, even though the effect of post Brexit falls in sterling should have worked its way out of the figures by now, so traders will be keen to see if it can ease back in February.

Most importantly, inflation remains above the rise in average earnings, a key factor influencing the BoE's monetary policy, with those latest numbers due in the latest UK labour market statistics on Wednesday.

Another strong performance from Bellway expected

If UK interest rates are close to being hiked again, builders will be in the crosshairs as the fragile housing market could bear the brunt as mortgage rates increase.

However, Bellway PLC (LON:BWY) had a bumper 2017 and is expected to promise more of the same in 2018 when it announces interims on Tuesday.

The FTSE 250-listed firm's housing revenue in the six months to the end of January is expected to have risen by more than 14% year-on-year to ?1.3bn on the back of a 6.3% rise in housing completions and a near 7.8% rise in the average selling price.

Having revealed most of the big numbers in its February trading update, focus will be on current trading and in particular the weekly reservation rate and the forward order book.

Technology deals eyed at Ocado

Food price inflation could also be a factor in numbers from online grocer Ocado PLC (LON:OCDO), although the firm - set up in 2010 as a grocery delivery service - is now more focused on being a technology platform provider.

"Deals to license out its technology to Canadian and French retailers have raised hopes the blue touch paper on Ocado's transformation from UK online supermarket to international technology provider is well and truly lit," observed Danny Cox at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"We're unlikely to get news of any more deals at this stage, or indeed what the longer-term profitability of those it has already signed is like. Still any indication there are more interested parties at the negotiating table will be important," Cox added.

News last Wednesday that US giant Wal-Mart is to extend its home delivery service sent Ocado's shares lower, as some investors were hoping Wal-Mart would turn to Ocado to help in its fight against online titan Amazon.

Recovery eyed at Wood Group

It should come with little surprise that investors will have a degree of tunnel-vision as they look at Wood Group Plc's (LON:WG.) full-year results on Tuesday - it ought to all be about cash generation and visibility in the new contracts pipeline.

With crude prices now stabilising somewhat, showing relative strength through recent months, investors will want to know that the downtrodden services sector is in recovery mode and they'll want to hear that oil companies are spending capital on projects again.

In a preview note, UBS noted that Wood Group has already, in a pre-close update, reported that proforma full-year earnings are expected to be between US$590mln and US$610mln, while net debt is expected to have been around $1.8bn at the end of December.

Significant events expected on Tuesday March 20:

Trading update: Ocado Group PLC (LON:OCDO)

Finals: John Wood Group PLC (LON:WG), Mears Group PLC (LON:MER), 888 Holdings PLC (LON:888), Cloudcall Group PLC (LON:CALL), Caledonia Mining Corp (LON:CMCL), DP Eurasia NV (LON:DPEU), EnQuest PLC (LON:ENQ), Faroe Petroleum (LON:FPM), Getbusy PLC (LON:GETB), The Gym Group Plc (LON:GYM), Hansteen Holdings plc (LON:HSTN), IQE plc LON:IQE), Judges Scientific PLC (LON:JDG), NAHL Group plc (LON:NAH), Polypipe Group PLC (LON:PLP), TF Fluid Systems PLC (LON:TIFS)

Interims: Bellway PLC (LON:BWY), Blancco Technology Group PLC (LON:BLTG), Ceres Power Holdings PLC (LON:CWR), Genedrive PLC (LON:GDR)

Economic data: UK inflation (CPI, RPI, PPI, HPI)

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